CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000700090001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 22, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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22 May 1952
I
Copy o? 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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DIA and DOS
review(s) completed.
TOP SECRET
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EVIEWER:
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SUMMARY
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FAR EAST
arens an Burmese Communists nearing an alliance (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iran offers to include oil in exports to USSR (page 4).
4. Iranian oil official says Italian tanker expected (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Yugoslav estimate of Satellite strength (page 5).
6, Czech jets make identification passes at Belgian airliner (page 5).
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. Soviet tough line in Germany seen meeting early test (page 6).
8, Britain blocking agreement on German defense contribution
ian Government faces danger in 25 May elections (page 7).
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FAR EAST
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2. Karens and Burmese Communists nearing an alliances
In early April staff-level representatives of
the Karens and the Burmese Communists
reached an agreement on joint operations and
the administration of captured areas,
No agreement was re ac a re-
garding the boundaries of a future Karen state,
While feeling that a complete alliance with
the Communists is inevitable, the top Karen leadership is reportedly
stalling for time in the hope of receiving military assistance from other
sources.
Comment: This is the latest in a series of
reports indicating progress toward an alliance between the two major
insurgent forces in Burma.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iran offers to include oil in exports to USSR:
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Iran has now agreed to include oil on its list
of exports offered to the USSR under the pend-
ing trade agreement. The Iranians, however,
have made the offer conditional on the payment
of world market prices, on limitations on quantity, and on the Russians'
taking delivery at Abadan. They also insist on Soviet deliveries of sugar
and machinery in exchange. The Russians reportedly are displeased
with these conditions.
The US Embassy in Tehran comments that the
USSR could be expected to make every effort to move the petroleum if it
thought this would result in discontinuance of American aid to Iran.
4. Iranian oil official says Italian tanker expected:
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A National Iranian Oil Company spokesman
has confirmed information received by the
American Embassy that a tanker is due
momentarily at Abadan to load one thousand
tons of crude oil for Italy. The spokesman described the shipment as
an experiment which, if successful, would result in further shipments.
Comment: This is the first confirmed report
since the British withdrawal from Abadan that a tanker is actually pre-
pared to load there. An Italian oil company representative in Iran on
20 May informed an American Embassy official that an Italian ship was
due in Abadan on 21 or 22 May. The British Admiralty reports that the
vessel is the Italian-owned tanker Rosemary, under charter to a Swiss
company.
The shipment is apparently the first to be
made under a two million 'ton per year contract reportedly concluded
between Iran and a small Italian petroleum company in February. The
Italian Government has made definite assurances that no Iranian oil will
be given import licenses. These assurances will not necessarily pre-
vent shipment of the oil to another country.
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5. Yugoslav estimate of Satellite strength:
EASTERN EUROPE
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whereas the Hungarian armed forces are continuing to expand, and now
possess qualities which must be reckoned with.
recently in-
for med the US Army Attache in Belgrade that
his government does not visualize any outbreak
of hostilities with the neighboring Satellites in
the predictable future. The general staff esti-
matesthat Rumania and Albania remain negligible in combat potential,
In an earlier conversation with Ambassador
Allen, Marshal Tito stated that Bulgaria was Yugoslavia's most dangerous
Satellite neighbor.
Comment: In the past, Yugoslav estimates
have indicated considerable scorn for the military capabilities of the
neighboring Satellites, except Bulgaria.
6. Czech jets make identification passes at Belgian airliner:
On 19 May three MIG-15's made identification
passes to within about 700 feet of a Belgian
airliner flying inside its corridor over Czecho-
slovakia. No attempt was made to interfere
with the plane's s line of flight. The United States Embassy in Prague
warns that a corridor or border violation may result in more drastic
action by Czech jet interceptors.
Comment: This incident could be a Czech
warning of potential unpleasantness if Belgium and the Netherlands fail
to grant a Czech request for reciprocal flight rights. Czechoslovakia
has been pressing both the Netherlands and Belgium for several months
to grant it landing rights in order to re-establish its air routes to Western
Europe which were cut off on 10 September.
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WESTERN EUROPE
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7.- Soviet tough line in Germany seen meeting early test:
under the present circumstances, but that it may be hardened if the Allies
are able to show a determination to counter Soviet moves.
points out that the "crust of West German courage is understandably thin"
The next few weeks may be the test, according
to American officials in Bonn, of the actual
effect in West Germany of the Kremlin's new
tough line. The High Commissioner's office
HICOG believes that the Soviet Union will not
impose a full-scale blockade of West Berlin, but is more likely to impose
a "creeping blockade" of selective harassing, possibly restricted to out-
ward movements from Berlin, combined with an Eastern offer to absorb
West Berlin's production. As West German integration becomes a fact,
the Kremlin may also insist more and more that the Western powers
deal with the East German Government, acting as a front for the USSR.
8. Britain blocking agreement on German defense contribution:
the basis of increasing the German share after a period of continuing
high payments to the Allies for support of their forces in Germany.
British representatives, however, have been
instructed to insist upon a flat monthly rate for support costs on the
grounds that scaling down German payments to the Allies this year would
prejudice the British bargaining position for the period after 30 June 1953.
German Finance Minister Schaeffer is
evidently prepared to accept the American
proposal that Germany's defense contribution
be divided between the Allies and Germany on
Comment: Althogh Schaeffer's conciliatory
attitude presents some hope of reaching an agreement in principle on the
defense contribution, the inability of the British negotiators to modify
their position may make it necessary to leave the entire question for the
Foreign Ministers to settle.
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10. Italian Government faces danger in 25 May elections:
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The United States Embassy in Rome believes
that the extensive gains which the extremist
parties are "certain" to make in the 25 May
South Italian elections will "jolt" Premier
de Gasperi's government and result in insistence by the left, and, prob-
ably also by the right, on immediate national elections.
The center's continuing ability to hold a
national working majority against both the Communists and the extreme
right will meet its test in Rome, where the Christian Democrats are
linked in an electoral bloc with other moderate parties only. The Em-
bassy believes the center alliance will pull through in Rome, but with a
plurality of only 50,000 or fewer votes as compared with 320,000 in the
1948 national elections.
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Should De Gasper i lose the city, "even the
staunchest supporter of the center would have to admit doubt of its
continuing viability:' The ensuing crisis could bring about national
elections this fall, or a radical reorganization of the government, possi-
bly with the resignation of De Gaspers, or an admission of government
weakness by postponement of national elections from 1953 to 1954.
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