CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000800390001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 4, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/12/03: CIA-RDP79T00975A000800390001-3
TOP SECRET
4 September 1952
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 3,
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Philippine Government hopes to bargain for participation in ANZUS
(page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Britain seeks broad diplomatic support for Iranian oil proposals
(page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Austrian trade negotiations with Soviet Union held politically necessary
(page 5).
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5. American officials urge encouragement of pro-West sentiment in
East Germany (page 6).
6. Adenauer optimistic on ratification of Bonn and Paris treaties
(page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Ibanez may challenge Chilean election result with "popular militia"
(page 7).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
2, Philippine Government hopes to bargain for participation in ANZUS:
Philippine Foreign Minister Eliza1de
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eventually ask to participate in ANZUS, and
that this participation would enable President
Quirmo to obtain Senate ratification of the Japanese peace treaty.
The American Ambassador in Manila be-
lieves that Philippine inclusion in ANZUS is still undesirable, that it
would not bring about ratification of the peace treaty, and that the
United States should not "bargain" to obtain ratification.
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Comment: Formalization of the US-Philippine
Mutual Defense Pact was arranged for 27 August to counteract criticism
in Manila of the ANZUS meeting at Honolulu. The United States main-
tains, however, that the Philippines is still obligated to ratify the Japa-
nese treaty because of an agreement a year ago that the exchange of
ratifications of the Mutual Defense Pact would be dependent on this act.
Inclusion of the Philippines in ANZUS is op-
posed by Australia and New Zealand, which are reluctant to increase
their defense responsibilities.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Britain seeks broad diplomatic support for Iranian oil proposals:
On the recommendation of British Charge
Middleton in Tehran, Britain will ask France,
Turkey, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium
to urge Iran to accept the recent Anglo-Amer-
ican proposals for the settlement of the oil dispute. At the discretion
of the respective British diplomats, approaches may also be made to
enlist the general support of Iraq, Egypt, Pakistan, and India, and to
ask King Ibn Saud to try to persuade Mullah Kashani, the Iranian Na-
tional Front leader now on pilgrimage to Mecca, to adopt a "reasonable
attitude,"
Middleton has indicated to London that he is
not optimistic over the chances for improving the situation by this means,
but he believes every possible approach should be tried.
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WESTERN EUROPE
4. Austrian trade negotiations with Soviet Union held politically necessary:
American Embassy officials in Vienna are
inclined to agree with Foreign Minister
Gruber that it has become "politically neces-
sary" for the Austrian Government to raise
e ques ion o a ra e agreement with the Soviet Union. Soviet trade
propaganda has allegedly been most effective among conservative and
business circles, but Socialist leaders reputedly also accept the neces-
sity of trade negotiations as the only way of disproving the claims of
Soviet East-West trade propaganda.
Embassy officials believe that Austrian re-
ceptivity to such propaganda, which reflects mounting concern over
unemployment and export problems, will largely evaporate when trans-
actions with the USSR fall short of expectations.
Comment: Although Soviet propaganda and
recent economic concessions have cleverly exploited Austrian economic
difficulties, there is little evidence of strong political demands for an
Austro-Soviet trade agreement as such. Since the Soviet Union is in
a position to conduct all of its Austrian trade through "illegal" channels?
provided by the Administration of Soviet Enterprises in Austria (USIA),
any SoViet pressure for a trade agreement would appear to be politically
motivated.
Austrian leaders may be primarily hoping
for Soviet "concessions" which would "legalize" USIA trade even though
they express doubts that such concessions would result.
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5. American officials urge encouragement of pro-West sentiment in East
Germany:
American officials in Berlin believe that the
will of pro-Western elements in East Germany
to continue to resist Communist pressure de-
pends upon a prompt and decisive reply to the
Soviet note of 24 August. They cite indications from the Soviet Zone that
the anti-Communist majority cannot hold out much longer without some
positive response on the part of the West.
American representatives in Berlin urge that,
to maintain East German faith in the West, the Western powers either
terminate the exchange of notes with the Soviet Union or agree to an
early four-power conference in Berlin. While the first alternative would
have the advantage of demonstrating Western "courage," the second
would make very difficult the "building of socialism, "the erection of
a military machine, and the further isolation of the population in East
Germany.
These officials believe that the greatest weak-
ness of the Western'position in East Germany is the popular impression
that the Russians are more willing to gamble on the unity theme than
the West.
6. Adenauer optimistic on ratification of Bonn and Paris treaties:
After his first consultation with the West
German cabinet following a month's absence
from Bonn, Chancellor Adenauer told Gen-
eral Ridgway that he was more confident
n ever that the Bonn and Paris treaties would be ratified by mid-
October at the latest. The Chancellor also stated that as soon as the
treaties had gone into effect, West Germany would make its full con-
tribution to European defense.
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Comment: The Chancellor's optimism sug-
gests that he does not believe that parliament will press him for a full
settlement of the Saar problem prior to the treaties' ratification.
Despite Adenauer's positiveness on the
West German share in European defense, negotiations over the Federal
Republic's 1953-54 contribution to the European Army will probably be
difficult and prolonged.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Ibanez may challenge Chilean election result with "popular 'militia":
A campaign leader for presidential candidate
Ibanez del Campo reportedly has been se-
cretly training "popular militia" groups
throughout Chile "to defend the legitimate
triumph of Ibanez" in the 4 September election.
Arms and ammunition have been issued.
Comment: This is the first detailed report
of a popular militia, and is in line with activities at the enthusiastic
Ibanez rally of 31 August, where speakers called on his followers to
keep themselves in readiness "for any eventuality." The Chilean Gov-
ernment, according to the United States Embassy, is aware that Iban-
istas are training a militia.
Ibanistas, possibly with Communist support,
may foment disorders or attempt a coup if it appears that the election
is rigged against their candidate, or if Ibanez gets a plurality of the
votes and is not named president by a joint session of the Chilean
Congress.
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