CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001000410001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 19, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. West German negotiations with individual Arab states to be
deferred (page 3).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Deterioration of security in Tonkin delta emphasized (page 4).
4. Bao Dai wants to send his Chief of Staff to Washington (page 4).
5. Burmese plan all-out campaign against Chinese Nationalists in
northern Burma (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Western oil companies surreptitiously shipped Arab crude oil
to Israel (page 5).
7. Egyptian Army discontent may bring demand for "unconditional"
evacuation of Suez Canal (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslavia wants negotiation before Italian occupation of Trieste
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Bidault hints France may scrap EDC concept (page 7).
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 vAed
FqYprd
GENERAL
1. West German negotiations with individual Arab states to be deferred:
The West German Embassy in Cairo reports
25X1 A I I that trade delegations will not be sent to other
Arab League states until Egypt and the Federal
Republic resolve their differences over the con-
troversial Israeli restitution agreement.
The leader of the returning West German dele-
gation has expressed the opinion that the Egyptians are "impossible" to
deal with and that the Arab League will not impose an economic boycott
when the Bundestag ratifies the Israeli restitution agreement.
Both West German and American officials in
Cairo, however, believe that ratification of the agreement would be
followed by an Arab boycott or at least by a blacklisting of German
firms trading with Israel.
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 25A?Aoved
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Deterioration of security in Tonkin delta emp sized-
A marked decline over the past two years in
25X1 AI I the security of the French-held Tonkin delta
was reported recently by administrative of-
ficials of the provincial government. During
this period, the number of villages firmly held by the Viet Minh has
doubled to 2,060, while the total of government-controlled villages has
declined sharply to 1,705. The number of those frequently changing
hands is still very high.
Comment: This report points up the mis-
leading nature of the term "French defense perimeter" around the
Tonkin delta. Governor Tri of Tonkin, reviewing security conditions
there, recently estimated that government forces controlled only 20
percent of the delta at night. Further evidence of loose French con-
trol is the fact that, despite continuing clearing operations, as many
as 40,000 Viet Minh troops remain in the delta.
4. Bao Dai wants to send his Chief of Staff to Washington -
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Referring to a possible visit to Washington
in the next month or so by the French Prime
Minister and his Minister for Associated
States, Bao Dai stated to Ambassador Heath
that he did not want important decisions affecting his country to be
taken without Vietnamese participation.
Bao Dai said he would like to send General
Hinh, his Chief of Staff, to Washington in the near future to discuss
the Vietnamese situation.
Comment- Bao Dai recently sent Hinh on
a special mission to Paris to press for greater control over the
Vietnamese Army and increased authority in the conduct of military
operations,
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5. Burmese plan all-out campaign against Chinese Nationalists in
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northern Burma:
the largest yet attempted in north Burma and will have artillery and
armored support.
commander. The operations, scheduled to begin on 1 March, will be
Burmese Government troops are planning a
month-long military offensive against Chinese
Nationalist troops south of Lashio in northern
Burma, according to a Burmese battalion
The American Embassy in Rangoon believes
that this report is probably true.
Comment.- Minor skirmishes between govern-
ment forces and the Nationalists have recently increased in number. If
the Nationalists should offer determined resistance to this attack, their
modern weapons would make a Burmese victory difficult.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Western oil companies surreptitiously shipped Arab crude oil to Israel.-
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In 1952 the Shell and Anglo-Iranian oil com-
panies surreptitiously shipped 1,800,000
barrels of crude oil from Kuwait to the Haifa
refinery in Israel.
Ambassador Minor in Beirut does not believe
that the Sheikh of Kuwait knew of these shipments. The Ambassador
warns that if the Arabs hear of them, pent-up discontent may be di-
rected at all oil companies and foreign investments in the Arab coun-
tries.
Comment: Iraq may be expected to be par-
ticularly incensed by this action, because since 1948 it has refused to
allow its pipelines to carry oil to Haifa, thereby losing millions of
dollars in revenue annually.
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 7. Egyptian Army discontent may bring demand for "unconditional"
evacuation of Suez Canal:
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Discontent among the Egyptian Army officers
with the pro-American attitude of ' General
Nagib makes it impossible for him to proceed
with Middle East defense talks until the ques-
tion of British evacuation of the Suez Canal bases has been resolved.
Ambassador Caffery in Cairo also reports
that Nagib's High Committee is accordingly giving urgent consideration
to delivering Britain a note demanding "unconditional evacuation.
Caffery believes that Britain must give Nagib
a "clear-cut" statement on its intention to withdraw troops from the
canal zone and actually start to evacuate them before the General can
even secretly discuss mutual defense.
Comment: Previous reports indicate that
Nagib has been having cons dera e difficulty controlling dissident
elements in the army, particularly those opposed to the West. The
General apparently feels he requires a public victory on the question
of evacuation to satisfy the demands of extreme nationalists.
The American Embassy in London doubts
that the British Cabinet will approve a unilateral British announcement
of readiness to evacuate troops from Egypt. Despite solid Conservative
parliamentary support on the release of jets to Egypt and the generally
favorable reaction to the Sudan agreement, opposition to a conciliatory
policy toward Egypt remains unabated,
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Yugoslavia wants negotiation before. Italian occupation of Trieste:
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Yugoslav Foreign Minister Popovic states
that the entry of Italian troops into Zone A
of Trieste would be "most dangerous and
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 entirely unacceptable unless arrangements were freely negotiated in
advance," He warned Ambassador Allen that any imposed solution
involving further Italian control of Zone A would embitter Italo-
Yugoslav relations and make a definitive solution more difficult.
Comment: A high Yugoslav official informally
stated in late January that the Trieste question would be settled on the
basis of a provisional Zone A-Zone B division before Tito's trip to
Britain. Recently Yugoslav leaders have recognized the desirability of
a De Gasperi electoral victory.
These developments suggest the possibility
that Yugoslavia may be willing to accept Italian occupation of Zone A
before the Italian elections in exchange for a firm Italian agreement
on a final territorial solution roughly along the present zonal boundaries.
WESTERN EUROPE
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9. Bidault hints France may scrap EI)C concept:
French Foreign Minister Bidault told Ambas-
sador Dunn that there is a trend in France to
replace the EDC integration idea with a Euro-
pean coalition. He hinted that a suggestion
may be forthcoming to include Britain and other European countries
with the EDC nations in a military coalition, This would overcome the
objections of many Frenchmen to the reconstitution of a German army.
Comment: This suggestion would amount to
the "NATO-type" solution which Defense Minister Pleven has insisted
would have no chance of acceptance by Parliament. Premier Mayer has
denied earlier rumors that he bought the support of the Gaullists by ac-
cepting their "coalition" thesis.
Since Mayer took office, French indecision on
the final form of the European army has become increasingly evident.
During the recent French-British talks in London, Bidault gave the im-
pression that he would use the Saar issue as an excuse for not proceed-
ing with the EDC treaty.
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Approves