CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001300450001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 15, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 3, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

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9IF/NtEJR F79T
00,
3 November 1953
Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
WrtiMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
C1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: R609
_
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE-.,201W7-9- REVIEWER: ~-
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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DOS review(s) completed.
or, DIA review(s) completed.
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SUMMARY
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GENERAL
1 Soviet official hints at tactics on four-power conference (page 3).
2. Czechoslovakia offers to make concessions to increase trade
. with Austria (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Indian official says NNRC may hold Korean POW's indefinitely
i(Page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
'French operation in south Tonkin fails to bring strong Viet Minh
reaction (page 5).
6. Burma blames Nehru for its rice surplus (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
". Israeli prime minister expected to resign by 20 November (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
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10. Pella reduces Italian conditions for attending five-power Trieste
conference (page 10).
11. Denmark may compromise on manning of NATO air bases (page 10).
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GENERAL
. Soviet official hints at tactics on four-power conference:
device in specifying that the two conferences, as proposed in the
Soviet note of 28 September, be held simultaneously.
Ambassador Bohlen, on the other hand,
has suggested that the reply might propose a preparatory meeting
of deputy foreign ministers similar to the 1951 Palais Rose conference.
The USSR could streteh out such .a meeting indefinitely by means
such as proposing agenda items for a five-power conference on
"lessening international tensions," even though there is little
difference between the latest Western and Soviet proposals for a
broad agenda on Germany at a four-power meeting.
A Soviet official in Bern expressed the
opinion that the Soviet Union was unlikely
to take part in a four-power conference unless
a five-power conference were called simul-
taneously, according to .he Swiss legation in-Washington.
Comment: The anticipated Soviet note on
the projected Lugano conference may well contain a new stalling
Czechoslovakia offers to make concessions to increase trade with
ustria:
in order to improve trade relations.
Comment: This is the first indication
that a Satellite government is ready to make concessions on its
own initiative in order to increase trade with the West in accordance
with the new Orbit economic policy. In the past, concessions by
Orbit negotiators were made only to improve their bargaining
position.
An official of the Czech Ministry of
Foreign Trade proposed to the Austrian
legation in Prague on 8 October that
negotiations for a new trade agreement
be undertaken in November. The Czech government is now repre-
sented as ready to adopt measures "more acceptable to Austria''
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In line with current Soviet trade policy,
Czechoslovakia may agree to decrease its demand for strategic
goods and to import more raw iron and steel and consumer goods
from Austria. Austrian firms have attempted to increase their
exports to the Orbit of some of these latter items, which are too
high-priced to sell readily in Western markets. Czech intransigence
on these points caused the negotiations preceding the current agree-
ment to drag on for more than half a year.
FAR EAST
3. Indian official says NNRC may hold Korean POW's indefinitely:
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Ambassador Chakravarty, India's
ranking adviser' on the Neutral Nations
Repatriation Commission, told
Ambassador Dean on 1 November
that the NNRC must continue to hold
nonrepatriated prisoners if the political conference has not yet
convened by 23 January, the date on which it is scheduled to
have completed debate on the prisoner question.
Comment: Under the truce terms, the
conference is supposed to consider the prisoner question from
approximately 25 December to 23 January, with the NNRC re-
taining custody of the prisoners. In the following 30 days the
NNRC is to declare the prisoners released from prisoner to
civilian status and assist them to go to neutral nations, following
which the commission is to dissolve itself.
American officials are already on
record as saying the prisoners must be released on 23 January
whether or not the conference has discussed the problem. This
date virtually coincides with the end of the 90-day period in
which Rhee has promised not to obstruct the truce.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
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5. French operation in south Tonkin fails to bring strong Viet Minh
reaction:
The French have been disappointed in the
Viet Minh reaction to their operation in
,southern Tonkin, according to the American
army attache in Saigon. He believes the
French are not occupying terrain really critical to the Viet Minh,
and that the latter are unlikely to attack them in the heavily entrenched
defensive positions they have set up.
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He reports that of two enemy divisions against
which the operation was directed, one is continuing to infiltrate the delta.
and the other is continuing its training program.
Comment: Contrary to press reports, the
French operation is believed to hav had little effect on the Viet Minh's
offensive capabilities. The army attache previously described current
French tactics of building a strong defensive position and hoping for
an enemy attack as reminiscent of the tactics of Navarre's defense-
minded predecessor, General Salan.
6. Burma blames Nehru for its rice surplus:
In a further conversation with Ambassador
Sebald regarding the disposal of Burma's
rice surplus, cabinet minister Kyaw Nyein
stated that India's failure to purchase
600,000 tons of rice, set aside at Nehru's personal request at the
expense of other traditional buyers, had caused bitter feeling in
the Burmese cabinet. He stated that tMs rice forms a large part
of the present surplus.
Kyaw Nyein indicated that one of the
attractions of a Chinese Communist offer to buy Burmese rice
was that it provided an opportunity to break Burma's dependence
on India. He implied, moreover, that he could delay a final
agreement with Peiping for only about 20 days.
Comment: This is the first sign of
official Burmese bitterness toward Tndia since the two countries
became independent. Although there are potential sources of
serious friction in Indo-Burmese relations, the two governments
have heretofore maintained close relations.
There is no evidence that Sino-Burmese
trade negotiations are beyond the exploratory stage.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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Israeli prime minister Ben-Gurion will
resign by 20 November and be succeeded
by Levi Eshkol, ndiiiiStar of f raan^:a, air:-
cording to Dr. Nahum Goldmann, prominent
American Zionist now visiting Israel. He told American charge Russell
in Tel Aviv that Ben-Gurion would continue to hold his membership in
the Knesset and that after a year or two he might resume the premier-
ship.
Comment: The long-rumored resigna-
tion of Ben-Gurion will pro any result in considerable political
maneuvering, even though Eshkol is an experienced administrator
who has been groomed for the job.
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8. Israeli prime minister expected to resign by 20 November:
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The prime minister's scheduled resig-
nation suggests that the government believes that it has the crisis
raised by the Kibya incident in hand. Lacking the firm influence of
Ben-Gurion, Israel's relations with the Arab states might further
deteriorate,
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WESTERN EUROPE
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10. Pella reduces Italian conditions for attending five-power Trieste
conference:
In reply to French foreign minister Bidault's
query on 31 October as to how much of the
8 October declaration on Trieste must be
implemented before Italy would agree to a
ive-power conference, Italian premier Pella "hazarded a personal
guess" that transfer to Italy of authority over the harbor and police
force of Trieste would be sufficient.
According to a French Foreign Ministry
spokesman, Pella stated that the conference should not be held too
soon. He added that if transfer of the civil administration of Zone A
proceeded smoothly and without delays, the problem of military trans-
fer might not arise.
Comment: This is the first time Pella has
retreated from his earlier insistence that Italy must have a "position.
of parity" with Yugoslavia before attending a five-power conference on
Trieste,
The transfer to Italy of authority over even
the harbor and police of Trieste would probably be regarded by
Yugoslavia as sufficient grounds for refusing to attend a five-power
conference.
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ll.. Denmark may compromise on manning of NATO air bases:
The American embassy in Copenhagen sees
no hope at present of agreement on the
permanent stationing of foreign personnel
at air bases in Denmark, but believes that
the new Social Democratic government might
agree to a "rotation plan" if one were pre-
sented as a concession.
The embassy suggests that the US make a
"last offer" along these lines before reporting final failure to NATO.
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Comment: The "rotation" plan would
allow the United States to send air units to Denmark in peace time,
ostensibly on maneuvers, and to bring them up to full strength in
time of war or when the domestic political situation permits.
The Social Democratic Party declared its
opposition to the manning of NATO bases by American personnel in
June, largely as an election maneuver, allowing for a future reversal
of policy.
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