CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001400570001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 25, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 24, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
2 Q 0-a .w_
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
C.1 DECLASSIFIED
9
AUTH: FIR 7Q-2\ i
DATE:- EGG REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
State Department review completed
2004k(?&:-~A-W9Trooq7V/,04
 25X1A
Approved For Re
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1.
Communists at Geneva to emphasize foreign troop withdrawal
from Korea (page 3).
FAR EAST
2.
Rhee assumes direct control of new Joint Chiefs of Staff (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3.
General Navarre sees his plan proceeding on schedul
e (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
5.
Afghanistan hopes eventually to join Turkish- Pakistani pact (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6.
Egypt offers military aid to Sudan (page 6)e
25X1
LATIN AMERICA
8.
Ousting of Brazilian labor minister by army pressure predicted
(page 7).
25X1A
Approved For Release 2004/01/16 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001400570001-3
 25X1A
Communist negotiators at Panmunjom told
GENERAL
The Communists also indicated they might
submit a unification proposal calling for a provisional government based
on a joint assembly of the North and South Korean legislatures. They
conceded, however, that the selection of a head of state for a untfied
Korea would be "extremely difficult."
1. Communists at Geneva to emphasize foreign troop withdrawal from Korea:
25X1A
on 19 February that the 25X1
purpose of the Geneva. conference is to arrange
the speedy withdrawal of all foreign forces
from Korea and that all Chinese troops will
be withdrawn.
Approved For Re
I xpressed the opinion that the 25X1
Communists are interested in unification only on their own terms and
that in the event of withdrawal of foreign troops they would attempt to
take over South Korea "by infiltration, subversion, and disorder."
Comment: The standard Communist position
is that the Korean problem should be settled by the Koreans themselves
after all foreign troops have withdrawn. By pressing for immediate
withdrawal, and by opposing attempts to make it contingent on unifica-
tion, the Communists would be in a good position to impede discussion
of unification at Geneva.
An agreement on joint withdrawals would offer
the Communists substantial advantages, both by ridding the northeast
Asian mainland of American troops and by reducing international pressure
for a negotiated unification of Korea.
FAR EAST
25X1A
. Rhee assumes direct control of new Joint Chiefs of Staff:
Seoul radio on 18 February broadcast changes
in a presidential order which place the new
Joint Chiefs of Staff under direct command
of President Rhee. In the original concept,
the JCS was subordinate to the defense minister.
3
25X1 A . 24 Feb 54
Approved For Rel
 25X1A
Approved For
Comment: This move places the top
military organ firmly in Rhhands, and is in keeping with the
president's recent maneuvers to gain greater control over the army.
The order may also be an effort to offset the political ambitions of
the new army chief of staff, General Chong Il-kwon.
Recent top-level command changes by
Rhee complicate the chain of command and may make it more diffi-
cult for the United Nations Command to control the South Korean army.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
25X1A
3. General Navarre sees his plan proceeding on schedule:
In a briefing for Governor Stassen on
20 February, General Navarre stated
that the schedule and scope of his plan
were unaffected by recent military de-
velopments in Laos. He said that he had expected the present cam-
paign season to be difficult since the opposing forces are more or
less in balance, but he anticipated that his present clearing operations
would enable him to throw an expanded force against the Viet Minh
next fall.
Navarre said the enemy could not attack
Luang Prabang with any chance of success and that it would suffer
heavy losses if it were to strike at Muong Sai. In view of their supply
difficulties, Navarre "felt rather certain" that Viet Minh forces would
be recalled from northern Laos to attack Dien Bien Phu.
Comment: Navarre's estimate regarding
prospects for the future is in accord with others he has made recently.
Early reports of a press conference on 19 February 25X1
I Istated, apparently errone-
ously, that Navarre had been pessimistic and had said that he did not
expect to be able to inflict decisive defeat on the Viet Minh next year.
Approved For ReIo
25X1A
24 Feb 54
lase - 1400570001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/01/16 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001400570001-3
25X1
SOUTH ASIA
25X1A5.
Afghanistan hopes eventually to join Turkish-Pakistani pact:
The Afghan ambassador in Washington
stated on 18 February that Afghanistan
would wish to join an association such as
that now being discussed between Pakt` st
a
ambassador added, however, that in this event Afghanistan would ask
the United States to guarantee its frontiers, since it could not jeopardize
its security simply for military aid.
Comment* Afghanistan's 1931 treaty with
the USSR, automatically renewed each year, forbids either party to
enter a political or military agreement which might be directed against
the other. Afghanistan would probably not be willing to denounce or
violate this treaty without firm guarantees and substantial foreign
military aid.
CL"
and Turkey, if and when it settled its differences with Pakist
Th
Approved For
25X1A
24 Feb 54
 25X1A
Approved For R
The Afghans may be expected to
continue to explore the possibility of extracting benefits from
a Turkish-Pakistani pact, however, and as a result are likely
to make additional moves toward settling their Pushtoonistan
dispute with Pakistan.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
25X1A
6. Egypt offers military aid to Sudan:
President Nagib has announced that
Egypt will give the Sudanese defense
force five training planes and arms for
1,000 men on the convening on 1 March
of the Sudan's first parliament.
25X1
Egypt will also offer free military train-
ing to Sudanese officers and noncommissioned officers.
Comment: This offer is evidence of
Egypt's intention to extend its influence vigorously in the Sudan.
Egypt's efforts to gain prestige with the
Sudanese army, a 5,000-man force commanded by British officers,
will almost certainly bring strong reactions from Britain.
Approved For
25X1A
24 Feb 54
00570001-3
 25X1A
Approved For - 400570001-3
25X1
LATIN AMERICA
25X1A8 Ousting of Brazilian labor minister by army pressure predicted:
Brazilian president Vargas is expected 25X1
to dismiss Labor Minister Goulart as a
result of army pressure,
The American embassy comments that although the situation remains
tense, no disorders are expected.
Comment.- Goulart's projected dismissal
suggests that Vargas believes that the army, long opposed to the
opportunistic labor minister, might now be sufficiently aroused to
stage a coup if he were retained. Previously, Vargas, with an eye
to the October congressional elections, had supported Goulart's
efforts to build mass labor support, even with Communist partici-
pation, in order to free the administration from dependence on the
army.
While Goulart's dismissal would normally
be expected to strengthen Finance Minister Aranha, spokesman for
the conservative cabinet members, Vargas' past practice when con-
fronted with serious conflict has been to dismiss the leaders of both
factions.
The selection of General Zenobio da.Costa
to replace War Minister Cardoso probably stems from Cardoso's pub-
lic espousal of the recent army protest against Goulart. Zenobio is
generally regarded as more pro-Vargas and has a considerable follow-
ing among the junior officers. He is believed favorably disposed toward
the United States.
Approved For
25X1A
4005700 _Feb 54
25X1