CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001500030001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 26, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 14, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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14 March 1954 0,00
?pY No. 8 4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOWMENt NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
LJ DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO; TS S C
NEXrREVIEW DATE:
AUT
H: HR 702
. D A T REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DOS review(s) completed.
TOP SECRET
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2. Burmese offensive jeopardizes effort to evacuate Chinese
Nationalists (page 3).
SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
Comment on Malenkov's 12 March election speech (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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3.
NEAR EAST - A FRI
4. Iraqi premier wins key support for immediate conclusion of
US military aid agreement (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
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6.
7. French and German comments on Saar prospects (page 7).
8. Bidault sees French EDC ratification in early May (page 7).
Demonstrations on 20 March in Trieste not expected (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
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SOVIET UNION
1. Comment on Malenkov's 12 March election speech:
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Premier Malenkov's election speech,
which was directed primarily to the
internal and Orbit audience, indicated
no important new approach to international questions. His re-
affirmation of the slogan he launched a year ago concerning the
possibility of settling all controversial questions by peaceful means
was probably designed to build up Western sentiment for making
concessions'at Geneva and accepting Soviet proposals for :further
conferences.
Malenkov gave particular emphasis to the
Soviet plan for European security, further underlining this as a major
propaganda theme. His reference to the possibility of removing ob-
stacles to such a security pact recalls Molotov's recent hint that the
exclusion of the United States from the proposed pact might be re-
examined.
On internal problems the speech followed
the current pattern, with the exception that it devoted less attention
to the agricultural problem than other recent statements by Soviet
leaders. Malenkov emphasized the necessity to improve labor pro-
ductivity, apparently referring to the downward trend in productivity
revealed in the report of 1953 plan results. 25X1 A
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Burmese offensive jeopardizes effort to evacuate Chinese Nationalists:
The Ministry of National Defense in Taipei
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to evacuate Chinese troops from Burma be-
cause of continued Burmese military action,
according to the Nationalist foreign minister. He hopes first, however,
to make a final effort to persuade the Burmese to extend the cease-fire
agreement.
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The minister indicated that if the Burmese
refuse, he intends to recall China's representative on the joint evacua-
tion committee in Bangkok and to inform the United Nations that the
Burmese action had rendered further evacuation impossible.
Comment: Taipei has shown a more co-
operative attitude since resumption of the evacuation effort on 14
February.
The Burmese ambassador in Bangkok is
reportedly elated over the successes recently achieved by the Burmese
army. If his attitude reflects that of Rangoon authorities, any effort
to obtain a new cease-fire arrangement is likely to be futile.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iraqi premier wins key support for immediate conclusion of US
military aid agreement:
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Iraqi prime minister Jamali told Ambassador
Berry on 11 March that the crown prince,
elder statesman Nuri Said, and the minister
of interior agree with him that the American
military aid agreement should be concluded immediately. Jamali added
that he is hopeful of success, although some other cabinet ministers
still have to be won over.
Later in the day the minister of interior
informed the embassy that he was prepared to handle demonstrations
and disturbances which might result from announcement of an agreement.
Comment.- The present recess of the Iraqi
parliament offers Jamali an opportunity to accept the military arms
agreement without that body's vocal opposition. The prime minister
in past weeks occasionally catered to popular anti-Western criticism,
but he now appears ready to sign the agreement without parliamentary
approval.
Aside from the possibility of immediate
popular demonstrations, Jamali is likely to face an unruly and largely
hostile parliament.when it reconvenes in mid--April. Arab antagonisms
may also be anticipated at the Arab League meeting in Baghdad on 31
March.
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5.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Demonstrations on 20 March in Trieste not expected:
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The Italian Foreign Ministry, which has
been investigating the possibility of riots
in Trieste on 20 March, expects no demon-
strations and will do all it can to assure that
none take. place.
Comment.- Neo-Fascist elements inspired
a demonstration on 8 March last year, but largely as a result of strin-
gent security precautions, none occurred on 20 March, the anniversary
of the 1948 Anglo-American-French declaration calling for the return to
Italy of all of the Free Territory.
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The American political adviser in Trieste
reported a few days ago that a check of all available intelligence in
Trieste had disclosed no plans for organized demonstrations, but that
there were indications that some neo-Fascist elements wish to "do
something:'
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. French and German comments on Saar prospects:
Following his 9 March talks with Chancellor
Adenauer on the Saar, French foreign minis-
ter Bidault told Ambassador Dillon in Parts
that he sees no "insuperable difficulties" to
a final settlement. On the other hand, accord-
ing to West German officials in .Paris, Bidault
and Adenauer at their 9 March meeting did not
negotiate on a settlement beyond agreeing that
the Council of Europe's plan, which each wanted
to modify in a different way, would serve as a
basis for future discussions.
Bidault considers the economic problem the
largest remaining difficulty; other major differences are the duration of
the agreement and what international authority would control a European-
ized Saar.
Bonn government leaders say that a Bundestag
majority vote could be secured for the Council of Europe's plan, and
American officials in Paris believe that the final compromise will likely
be close to its present terms.
8. Bidault sees French EDC ratification in early May:
Foreign Minister Bidault told Ambassador
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.t'remter Laniel had decided the EDC debate
should begin in early April, but that he did
not expect a final vote before the opening of
the Geneva conference. Bidault foresees a
comfortable majority for the treaty if he
succeeds, as he hopes, in getting Socialist
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leader Guy Mollet and Independent leader Antoine Pinay to accept a
promise that a popularly elected European assembly come into being
in two or three years.
Bidault said that the foreign ministers'
meeting scheduled for 30 March in Brussels would be postponed to
avoid confusing the EDC with the proposed political community.
Comment: Bidault's optimism derives
some support from other indication s that the needed Socialist votes
might be obtainable on the basis indicated, but developments at Geneva
are likely to raise still further difficulties for ratification.
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