CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001500160001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 30, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

30 March 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DATE:4xc~[F-4 4_ REVIEWER: -I
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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DIA review(s) completed.
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Poland may call conference on European security (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Popular discontent reported in southeast China (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh reinforcements reported on way to Dien Bien Phu (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on India's new threats to annex French and Portuguese
colonies (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Comment on Israeli raid on Jordan (page 6).
6. UN observers expect breakdown of Israeli-Syrian armistice commission
(page 6).
7. Comment on Egyptian situation (page 7).
8. British agree to negotiate compensation agreement with Iran (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Poland may call conference on European security:
The Polish embassy counselor in Paris
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intends to call a conference on European
collective
Poland will
issue invitations prior to e Geneva conference to key West European
governments, the USSR, and the Satellites, including East Germany.
The agenda of the conference would also include discussion of the Oder-
Neisse line.,
The invitation would be timed to strengthen
anti-EDC forces in Western Europe before the Geneva conference. The
meeting would also be used to build up the international status of East
Germany.
Comment: There is no chance that
Western European governments would agree to any conference such
as that described in this report.
This is the first report that Poland may
propose a conference of this sort. Poland has been given a leading role
in supporting Soviet policy toward Western Europe.
A European collective security arrangement
has become a major theme of Orbit-wide propaganda since Molotov's
proposal at the Berlin conference, but except by the Poles there has
been no reference to the Oder-Neisse question.
FAR EAST
Popular discontent reported in southeast China:
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in u ien and Kwangtung provinces report
"widespread" peasant resentment: at
tightening Communist controls, particularly
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in regard to foodstuffs. In all three towns, furthermore, many people
welcomed and read Chinese Nationalist leaflets offering hope of liber-
ation. One source warned, however, that such leaflets will eventually
lose their value unless followed by action.
Comment: Peiping has instituted harsh
measures to speed its current "transition to socialism," despite know-
ledge that popular resentment would increase. The Chinese Communists
appear confident that such resentment cannot find effective expression.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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3. Viet Minh reinforcements reported on way to Dien Bien Phu:
has identified about 25X1
3,000 Viet Minh troops moving toward
Dien Bien Phu from a training area
north. of the Tonkin delta, according to
Ambassador Heath in Saigon. It has
another report of 10,000 reinforcements
commencing a long march from a point
southwest of the delta, but this group's
progress is being slowed by heavy rains.
The French also state that the Viet Minh
in. the Dien Bien Phu area is requesting
medical supplies for the month of May.
The problem of French wounded at Dien
Bien Phu grows more serious daily, with 300 now awaiting evacuation.
The present rate of 70 wounded daily is far in excess of evacuation
capabilities. General Navarre told the American consul in Hanoi that
the Viet Minh apparently believes that this might force him to yield
for humanitarian reasons. He stated, however, that he would not do
so "even if I had 3,000 wounded."
Comment: The reinforcements reportedly
en route to Dien Bien Phu presumably are recent recruits, not regular
forces formerly deployed around the delta perimeter. The latter,
according to the French are now all inside the delta.
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SOUTH ASIA
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4. Comment on India's new threats to annex French and Portuguese colonies:
India's latest campaign to annex the four
French and three Portuguese territories
remaining on the subcontinent coincides
with French preoccupation with Indochina
and is apparently generating greater pressure
than, past attempts.
Municipal councils in French Pondichery
and. Karikal have passed resolutions
demanding merger, and French ambassador Ostorog stated on 27 March
that he is convinced India could now win a plebiscite in Pondichery. 25X1
On 25 March Prime Minister Nehru again
declined the French offer to hold a plebiscite, claiming that events in
the French territories are ample evidence of the popular will and
insisting on a de facto transfer of power immediately.
The Portuguese have permitted no popular
demonstrations, have arrested pro-Indian agitators, and adamantly
refuse to discuss the subject with New Delhi. On 26 March, however,
India announced further restrictions on the movement of Portuguese
officials across Indian territory, and New Delhi has the power Ito make
the position of the Portuguese economically untenable at any time.
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press for the first time is publicizing the problem, indicate that
Portugal is now more seriously concerned by India's actions than ever
before.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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5. Comment on Israeli raid on Jordan-.
certainly have condoned the raid, regardless of which Israeli elements
conducted it, since the area south of Jerusalem in which it occurred
is well populated and presumably adequately patrolled.
Premier Sharett's description of Israel's
attack on the Jordan village of lNTahalin
on 28-29 March as a "local affair" is
apparently aimed at avoiding official
responsibility even though he admitted
Israeli citizens were involved. The
local army command must almost
There is little likelihood that this raid
will provoke formal retaliatory action by the Jordanian armed forces,
since Jordan is aware of Israeli military superiority.
The attack on Nahalin may have served
as an outlet for some of the strong popular wrath in Israel over the
Negev bus incident. By this action and by Sharett's quick admission,
however, Israel has weakened its position in international circles.
Under these circumstances, it can hardly afford in the immediate
future to risk serious involvement of its armed forces in frontier
clashes.
6. UN observers: expect breakdown of Israeli-Syrian armistice commission.
Amer an army attache in Tel Aviv. The commission meets again
on 31 March.
1UN observers in Israel believe Syria will
ask the Israeli-Syrian Mixed Armistice
Commission to review its decision of
15 March prohibiting Syria's access
to Lake Tiberias accordin to the
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They also expect that Israel will walk out
of the meeting if Syria succeeds in having the decision reviewed,
otherwise, Syria will walk out.
The attache disagrees with the view of the
UN observers that hostilities are imminent.
Comment: Many Western authorities consider
the commission's decision to be a mistake which, if not corrected, will
create as much trouble on the Israeli-Syrian border as there has been
on the Israeli-Jordanian border. Israel, however, is insisting on im-
plementation of the decision.
Suspension of the commission's meetings,
coming on the heels of Israel's boycott of the Israeli-Jordanian commis-
sion, adds significantly to the current seriousness of the Palestine
dispute.
7. Comment on Egyptian situation:
The. Revolutionary Command Council's
announcement canceling the June elections
of a constituent assembly and its own
dissolution on 24 July is a major victory for
Colonel Nasr and his supporters in their
month-long struggle for power with General
Nagib.
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The council's determination to reassert its
authority, by force if necessary, followed its realization that drastic
action was required to preserve its position, 25X1
The announcement, following three days
of confused political maneuvering and conferences between the two
factions, re-establishes the council as the supreme authority in Egypt
and represents a setback to the forces demanding an early return to
parliamentary government.
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Nagib's reported collapse and the apparent
consolidation of the army behind the "revolution" make. it unlikely that
he will attempt to challenge the council again at this time. The confusion
created by the internal power struggle is such that extremist elements
may still seize the opportunity to create new trouble.
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8. British agree to negotiate compensation agreement with Iran:
Iranian governments or decided by arbitration. The amount, to be paid
over 20 years, is to be between a maximum of $280,000,000 and a
still-undetermined minimum as payment for certain AIOC assets that
will not be recovered under the proposed consortium agreement.
Senior Foreign Office officials have agreed
that the amount of compensation to be paid
to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company by Iran
should be negotiated by the British and
This method of disposing of the compensation
question is dependent on Iranian willingness to make a 50-50 profit-
sharing arrangement with the consortium and is to be an integral part
of any final settlement.
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