CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001600180001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 23, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 15, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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?.x r 2004IT*W: ISI c- ?' 0097
15 June 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. _LCY---- -- -
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NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 7/
L) DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: _-
AUTH: ~,HR 70-2
DATE: c/L`9Q. REVIEWER:
25
Office of Current Intelligence
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. India seen seeking to evade Indochina responsibilities (page 3).
2. Greece and Turkey favor Italian adherence to Balkan alliance (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
3. Comment on overfulfillment of Soviet spring sowing plans (page 4).
4.
FAR EAST
Peiping will "probably" send charge to London soon (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
6, France seen facing capitulation in Indochina (page 6).
7. Recent incidents illustrate poor civilian and military morale in
Vietnam (page 7).
8. Malayan nationalists planning anti-British measures (page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Ben-Gurion may return as Israeli prime minister (page 8).
10. Critical point reached in Libyan base negotiations (page 9).
11. Lacoste clemency proposals provoke bitter opposition in Morocco
(page 9).
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GENERAL
1. India seen seeking to evade Indochina responsibilities,.
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The British acting high commissioner
in New Delhi notes that the Indian press
has abruptly changed from admiration
to hostility toward British foreign
secretary Eden, accusing Eden of yielding to American pressure
on the Indochina question. The high commissioner considers
that this change is probably the result of "guidance" from V. K.
Krishna Menon. Menon's sudden departure from Geneva may mean
that India anticipates that the conference is about to fold up and
that New Delhi wishes to avoid any connection with this failure.
Comment,. India has not been formally
represented at Geneva, but Menn s activities there have given at
least a semblance of Indian participation in efforts to reach a
settlement in Indochina.
New Delhi apparently now believes that
no mutually agreed settlement will emerge from Geneva and wishes
to avoid any possible obligation, even if only a moral one, to take
a part in Western-sponsored plans.
25X1 A 2. Greece and Turkey favor Italian adherence. to Balkan alliance,.
Greece and Turkey regard the Balkan
military alliance as of great benefit
to Italian security, according to a
memorandum of conversation between
the Greek and Turkish prime minis-
ters which was read to Ambassador
Warren in Ankara. The two countries
agreed that Italian adherence to the
alliance is "eminently desirable and in the long run essential to
the rounding out of security arrangements in the Balkan area."
Regardless of the status of the Trieste
negotiations, the Balkan alliance is now "practically decided and
completed." It will be ready for signature at the tripartite foreign
ministers' conference in Belgrade in mid-July.
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Comment: Tripartite recognition of
the desirability of Italian a erence to the alliance is a realistic
assessment of area defense problems, but the present strong
Italian opposition to the alliance makes it clear that Italy would
not join in the near future.
SOVIET UNION
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3. Comment on overfulfillment of Soviet s ring sowing plans-,
Soviet announcements that collective farms
have exceeded the 1954 spring sowing plan
by about two percent suggest that the first
phase of the regime's very ambitious agricultural program has been
successful. According to Soviet statistics, the total sown area of
the USSR in 1953 was about 388,000,000 acres, including 263,000,000
acres sown with grain.
Most of the h erca.se in sown area planned
for 1954 was to be about 5,700,000 acres of grain crops sown on
semiarid virgin and reclaimed lands in Kazakhstan, western Siberia,
and the northern area of the Transcaucasus. The government has
been counting on grain from this area to break the bottleneck in agri-
cultural production. It is now claimed that planting quotas in the
area have been overfulfilled by 2,200,000 acres. This year's plan is
much more modest than that for 1955, however, when the USSR plans
to sow grain on an additional 26,000,000 acres of virgin and reclaimed
land.
Despite the overfulfillment of spring
sowing plans, the decisive factor is the weather in May, June and
July. The weather to date has been officially reported as favorable.
In general the rainfall in these marginal areas is inadequate in two
out of five years.
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FAR EAST
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4. Peiping will "probably" send charge to London soon:
In a, recent conversation with Foreign
Secretary Eden at Geneva, Chinese
Communist foreign minister Chou En-lai
said that Peiping would "probably" send a
cha:rgd to London in the near future.
The Foreign Office representative in
communicating this to the American embassy gave the impression
that the government is "not at all happy" over the prospect of re-
ceiving a Chinese Communist diplomatic representative because it
anticipates an unfavorable American reaction.
Comment-. Peiping was expected at
Geneva to try to improve relations with some governments which
have recognized it. The Chinese Communists probably believe that
regularizing relations with Britain would help in exploiting Anglo-
American differences and would encourage other Western nations to
recognize the regime and support its claim to China's seat in the UN.
However embarrassing the immediate
consequences may prove to be, establishment of normal relations
with :Peiping has been a goal of Britain's policy since 1950. The
projected Communist move would to reduce the domestic politi-
cal impact of the British Labor Parry's scheduled good-will mission
to China this summer.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
6. France seen facing capitulation in Indochina:
The diplomatic counselor to General
Ely told the American charge in Saigon on
11 June that unless "by some miracle" a
French government could be found that
would continue the military effort, there was no alternative to French
capitulation. He stated that everyone in the Laniel cabinet except
the premier, Foreign Minister Bidault, and Deputy Foreign Minister
Maurice Schumann had "written off the war."
Comment: Since a major factor in Laniel's
downfall was parliamentary dissatisfaction with his handling of the
Indochina negotiations, it is virtually certain that any successor govern-
ment will be pledged to bring about an early end to the war. French
official and parliamentary statements in recent weeks make it increas-
ingly clear that without. direct American or UN intervention, the end
of the French military effort can be expected within a matter of months.
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 7. Recent incidents illustrate poor civilian and military morale
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The American embassy in Saigon has
received a report that a Vietnamese regular
army mobile group stationed in central
Vietnam recently refused orders to go
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into action. Former commissioner general Dejean, in co& rming
this, described it as additional evidence of a serious worsening of
Vietnamese army morale.
The embassy also has reports of recent
rioting at the Vietnamese naval. academy in central Vietnam, where
students are said to have assassinated the local chief of security, and
of widespread rioting last week south of Saigon in protest against con-
scription.
Comment: The Vietnamese population has
long shown a marked lack of e.n usiasm toward its government and
army. This attitude has been strengthened by the prospect of an early
Viet Minh victory by military or diplomatic means.
General Ely, in his appearance before princi-
pal personalities of north Vietnam, made a singularly poor impression
and, according to the American consulate in Hanoi, his assurances of
French "generosity" toward nationalist aims were received in total
silence.
Malayan nationalists planning anti-British measures:
The British Colonial Office's refusal to
appoint an independent commission to
review Malayan constitutional questions
has stimulated a sharp reaction among
Malayan Chinese Association have announced that their members
would resign from all government positions.
Malayan nationalists, according to the American consulate in Kuala
Lumpur. The United Malay Nationalist Organization and the allied
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Meanwhile, the consulate has been
informed that these two groups, which together make up the largest
legal political organization in Malaya, are planning a campaign of
"propaganda and non-co-operation" against British authority. 25X1
the alliance of the two groups is supported by the
Federation's only Malay regiment as well as by constable and home
guard units, and that it has established a paramilitary organization to
promote civil disobedience.
Comment-. Nationalist sentiment in Malaya
has mounted during the past two years but has been slow to crystallize.
Violence by these non-Communist groups appears unlikely in the near
future.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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9. Ben-Gurion may return as Israeli prime minister-.
Former premier Ben-Gurion may return
as prime minister of a new government in
Israel within six months, according to
various reports reaching the American
army attache in Tel Aviv.
Ben-Gurion has received considerable
publicity, due to rumors of his re-entry into the government and due
to his recent advocacy of a two-party system as well as a united
"nonpolitical" youth movement.
Comment-. Ben-Gurion retired from office
in December 1953. He has, however, maintained an active interest
in public affairs. He has had. close contacts with Minister of Defense
Lavon and Chief of Staff Dayan, both of whom are reputed to support
a strong retaliatory policy toward the Arab states.
The recent spate of rumors on this subject
suggests that the more moderate policy of Prime Minister Sharett may
be in the process of revision and that Ben-Gurion may return to pro-
mulgate a tougher policy toward the Arabs.
ago
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10. Critical point reached in Libyan base negotiations:
Minister Villard in Tripoli is convinced
that Libyan prime minister Ben=Halim, sup-
ported by the king, is determined to use the
question of jurisdiction over American troops
in :Libya as the top bargaining point to obtain
the maximum price in return for a base agree-
ment. This tactic, Villard notes, is black-
mail in the finest tradition of the Barbary
pirates.
Ben-Halim is insisting that he visit Wash-
ington at the earliest opportunity to seek assurance of additional Ameri-
can economic assistance above the offered $2, 000, 000 annual base
payment. Ben-Halim has also indicated that he intends to suspend fur-
ther negotiations in Libya and.. to conclude the final agreement in Wash-
ington.
Comment: The Libyans have a list of three
specific development projects, costing some $18,000,000, for which they
are likely to ask American aid.
11. Lacoste clemency proposals provoke bitter opposition in Morocco:
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The distribution of 50,000 leaflets by a
French veterans' organization in Casablanca
clearly reveals what Resident General Lacoste
faces if he tries to restore political liberty to
the Moroccans, according to the American consul in Rabat. The leaf-
lets condemn Lacoste's alleged instructions to release and negotiate
with the Arab nationalists as "'criminal and treasonable:"
Comment-. On 12 June the offices of the
veterans' organization were wrecked by bombs.
The mounting vehemence and bitterness ex-
pressed by both nationalists and the local French suggest that there is
at present little hope of reaching a peaceful settlement in Morocco.
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