CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001600340001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 25, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 3, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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3 July 1954
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/ CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. --- /
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
i"1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
S NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2010 / AUTH. HR 70-2
CAVE: /BV REVIEWER: 25
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Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French staff officer asserts French intend to abandon entire
Tonkin delta (page 3).
3. Diem followers considering a deal with Viet Minh (page 4).
4.
NEAR EAST -AFRICA
5. Jordan king advises "fire on Israelis when fired on" (page 6).
WESTERN. EUROPE
6. Early resignation of Italian foreign minister foreseen by Christian
Democratic leaders (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
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7. Venezuela angry over loss of opportunity to air Costa Rican "Commu-
nist problem"; '(page ;7;).
8. Nicaraguan president warns that Guatemalan situation remains
critical (page 8).
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GENERAL
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French staff officer asserts French intend to abandon entire Tonkin
delta.
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Colonel Gracieux, General Salan? s chief of
staff, informed the American charge in
Saigon on 1 July that French military plans
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call for a withdrawal to the Haiphong area and that a prolonged defense
is not contemplated even then.
Gracieux said he "hoped" that forces evac-
uated through Haiphong could be landed near Dong Hoi in Annam, where
the best defense line could be formed in the Chalk Hills running lat-
erally toward Thakhek, Laos (see map, p. 5). He also thought that
reinforcements could be brought in to this line via. Thakheko Gracieux
said, however, that this regroupment must take place before 1 October,
when the monsoon will make landing near Dong Hoi difficult.
Comment: The French may be expected to
try to establish a line someere north of Tourane, the site of their
best airfield in Indochina and the only one capable of supporting sus-
tained operations of heavy, medium and jet light bombers.
Diem followers considering a deal with Viet Minh:
Members of Premier-designate Ngo Dinh
Diem's entourage feel that Vietnam is being
by-]passed in the current Geneva negotia-
25X1 tions and are now seriously considering an
and Geneva, where he has had talks with the pro-Viet Minh scientist
Buu Hoi,
approach to the Viet Minh, Hoang
Xuan Han, an associate of Diem, is said to be shuttling between Paris
Buu Hoi is expected in Saigon shortly,
probably to serve as a go-between for Diem and the Viet Minh. Diem
is opposed to partition and will press for general elections as part of
a settlement.
Comment: Diem, like many anti-Commu-
nist Vietnamese, has been greatly angered by what he regards as a
French sellout to the Viet Minh in Tonkin. It is quite possible that
he is coming to believe that a direct Vietnam-Viet Minh settlement
would prove less disadvantageous to Vietnam than to abide by France's
apparent willingness to surrender Tonkin without a fight.
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Diem may calculate that the chances, howm
ever slight, of an eventual political overthrow of the Viet Minh within
a unified Vietnam are nevertheless greater than the possibility of a
successful defense of the southern half of Vietnam.
4.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
25X1A Jordan king advises "fire on Israelis when fired on":
Jordan's King Hussain, in commenting on the
Israeli-Jordanian hostilities in Jerusalem,
told Ambassador Mallory that citizens must
be protected in their homes and that he has
therefore "counseled that whenever fired upon, fire should be returned:
Mallory says this statement is counter to the
caution urged by General Glubb, Arab Legion commander, who has tried
to restrain the Jordanians.
Comment.- The current fighting is the most
serious in many months, It1o1 ows the near-breakdown of the UN truce
supervision niachtneryo While the truce will probably be restored '
Palestine, the over-all picture is one of increasing deterioration.
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WESTERN. EUROPE
6. Early resignation of Italian foreign minister foreseen by Christian
25X1 A Democratic leaders:
Former premiers De Gaspers and Fanfani
have indicated in recent interviews with
Ambassador Luce in Rome that they expect
Foreign Minister Piccioni to leave the
government shortly. De Gaspers, who said that the Chamber debate
on EDC should start before the summer recess and not be tied
to Trieste, described Piccioni as obsessed with the idea of "doing
better than Pella had done re Trieste." He said that Piccioni had
originally refused to sign any agreements with the United States pend-
ing a Trieste solution. Picciont modified this stand only after Premier
Scelba said he would sign a Trieste settlement if Piccioni refused.
Comment: Piccioni is the only important
Italian cabinet official oppose to reaching agreement separately on
the Trieste and EDC issues. His removal from the cabinet would
greatly improve the parliamentary prospects of both issues.
The success of the De Gasperi and
Fanfani factions in winning control of the Christian Democrats at
the recent party congress will probably hasten Piccioni's departure.
LATIN AMERICA
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7. Venezuela angry over loss of opportur~,ity".teaix.~Costa Rican,"Commu-
nist problem":
Venezuelan president Perez is angry because
the postponement of the OAS conference on
Guatemala has denied him the opportunity to
air his views on the "Communist problem"
in Costa Rica before the assembled Latin American foreign ministers.
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The strong Venezuelan reaction is attributable in part to the American
decision to ship arms to Costa Rica. The Venezuelan ambassador in
Washington has been instructed to protest the postponement to the
Department of State.
Comment: Caracas originally opposed
OAS discussion of the Guatemalan problem because it felt a consult-
ative meeting would jeopardize Venezuelan plans to provoke a
revolution in Costa Rica.
Long-standing Costa Rican fear of such a
move was heightened on 22 June when a. Venezuelan plane dropped
scurrilous leaflets over the Costa Rican capital. The Costa Ricans
feel vulnerable and have sought American support. The Costa Rican
government is anti-Communist.
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8. Nicaraguan president warns that Guatemalan situation remains
25X1 A critical:
Nicaraguan president Somoza told
Ambassador Whelan on 1 July that the
situation in Guatemala is still critical.
He said two Guatemalan Communists were
directing armed civilians in guerrilla warfare and that eliminating
Communism from Guatemala will be ""a tougher job than most peo-
ple realize: 1
Soinoza believes that Castillo Armas should
head the new government and added that if he later becomes "too
ambitious," Somoza can "take care of him."
Comment: Sporadic Communist-incited
violence has been reported since 1 July on the. Guatemalan Pacific
slopes, where Communists have been most effective in the past two
years in conditioning the mestizo farm hands to violent action. Though
the possibility of continued violence in this area cannot be eliminated,
the return of army units from the front subsequent to the signing of the
peace agreement on 2 July should provide sufficient armed strength to
restore order in the affected area. Early on 2 July Guatemalan junta
member Lt. Colonel Cruz minimized the seriousness of this violence.
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Although Colonel Monzon temporarily heads
the new junta established in the 2 July agreement with Castillo Armas,
the latter appears to be in the stronger position. It has not yet become
evident, however, which leader will command the loyalty of the majority
of the army officers.
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