CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001700040001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 22, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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22 August 1954
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V Copy Noo 25X1%/
rte/ CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
NOC IN !N
NO CHANGE CLASS C] DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: IQ 25X/
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 7Ta tb REVIEWER:
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 25X1
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DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Increasing armed conflict between French and Vietnamese antic-
ipated (page 3).
SOUTH ASIA
2. India believed facing dilemma on Goa (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
French president may urge caution on Moroccan reforms (page 4).
LATIN AMERICA
4. Brazilian presidential crisis seen entering new phase (page 5).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
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1. Increasing armed conflict between.. French and Vietnamese anticipated:
A senior Foreign Legion officer told the
American charge in Phnom Penh on 18
August that he anticipates increasing con-
flict between the Vietnamese people, a
rge proportion o whom he says sympathize with the Viet Minh, and
French troops trying to protect Vietnamese officials. This officer
had commanded the troops at Tourane which were obliged to fire on
a mob attacking officials there on 28 July.
He believes Viet Minh strategy is aimed at
fomenting such conflict and feels that the French will soon be faced
with a choice of evacuating their forces entirely or resuming military
operations.
Meanwhile, the captain of a French corvette
who recently sailed up the Mekong told the charge that Viet Minh flags
and banners were flying from villages and huts all along the river in
south Vietnam.
Comment: The American army attache
in Saigon reported that on 14 an.d~5 August alone five demonstrations
by Vietnamese under Viet Minh influence occurred at scattered points
throughout the southern zone. In several instances troops of the
French expeditionary corps had, to intervene.
The current weakness of the Vietnamese
government, the chaotic nature of the refugee movement, and popular
disillusionment over the peace settlement all lend themselves to Viet
-Minh exploitation.
SOUTH ASIA
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2. India believed facing dilemma on Goa:
The American embassy in New Delhi believes
India now faces a dilemma of its own making
in its campaign to take over Portuguese
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enclaves in India.. Having built up this campaign as a major
domestic issue, and having encountered .Portuguese determination
and foreign protests, New Delhi is "all dressed up and no place to
go."
Indian government leaders realize that if
no clear-cut action is taken, the Socialists and Communists will
try to seize the initiative and produce some "passive resistance
martyrs" of their own. For the present, however, the government
must choose between living with the "Goan problem" fQr some time
to come, or taking steps which would seriously injure Indian prestige
abroad.
Comment: New Delhi's pride has probably
been wounded and its domestic prestige tarnished by the negative
results of its campaign thus far. However, its dilemma, as far as
domestic politics are concerned, is more apparent than real, since
the government's influence over the press enables it to divert public
attention to other issues.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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French president may urge caution on Moroccan reforms:
President Coty will attempt to exert personal 2
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influence in order to restrain Prime Minister
Mendes- France from taking action .on Morocco
similar to that he took with respect to Tunisia,
Comment: Mendes- France's determination
to implement a more liberal po icy in Tunisia has caused consternation
among the powerful Moroccan settler lobbies in Paris, Their pressure
tactics, combined with the fact that Mendes-France himself is believed
skeptical as to Morocco's readiness for self-government, make unlikely
the formulation of a policy for Morocco similar to that announced for
Tunisia.
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LATIN AMERICA
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4. Brazilian presidential crisis seen entering new phase:
The American air attache in Rio de
Janeiro reports that Brazilian air force
investigators believe President Vargas
will resign if they prove his son "master-
minded" the 5 August attack against an
antiadministration newspaper publisher
which resulted in the murder of an .air
force major. These investigators have
hopes of producing such proof, according
to the reports.
Meanwhile, the American naval attache
in Brazil states that qualified observers there feel the political
crisis is again growing acute, with indications that prominent poli-
ticians may be involved.
Comment: The Brazilian air force is
not powerful enough to force Vargas' resignation without assistance
from the army high command; moreover, a new, pro-Vargas air
minister was appointed on 18 August.
Key army generals were reported on 13
August to have suspended their earlier pressure for the president's
resignation. However, should the air force investigation prove
conclusively that the Vargas family is closely linked to the crime,
army leaders would probably reassess their position.
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