CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00975A001700040001-8
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
5
Document Creation Date: 
December 15, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 6, 2004
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
August 22, 1954
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00975A001700040001-8.pdf199.06 KB
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se 20JT4M1,&RJaXWPT79T0 22 August 1954 0/~O:y/ 1 11210 V Copy Noo 25X1%/ rte/ CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN NOC IN !N NO CHANGE CLASS C] DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE: IQ 25X/ AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE: 7Ta tb REVIEWER: /~.100 000 25X / i Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 25X1 e 0 DIA and DOS review(s) completed. 25X1A Approved ForNaelease 2004/02/10 : CIA-RDP79T0097 %"01700040001-8 SUMMARY SOUTHEAST ASIA 1. Increasing armed conflict between French and Vietnamese antic- ipated (page 3). SOUTH ASIA 2. India believed facing dilemma on Goa (page 3). NEAR EAST - AFRICA French president may urge caution on Moroccan reforms (page 4). LATIN AMERICA 4. Brazilian presidential crisis seen entering new phase (page 5). 25X1A 22 Aug 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved For Rel?&M104/02/10 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700040001-8 25X1A Approved For4jelease 2004/02/10 : CIA-RDP79T009754901700040001-8 SOUTHEAST ASIA 25X1A 1. Increasing armed conflict between.. French and Vietnamese anticipated: A senior Foreign Legion officer told the American charge in Phnom Penh on 18 August that he anticipates increasing con- flict between the Vietnamese people, a rge proportion o whom he says sympathize with the Viet Minh, and French troops trying to protect Vietnamese officials. This officer had commanded the troops at Tourane which were obliged to fire on a mob attacking officials there on 28 July. He believes Viet Minh strategy is aimed at fomenting such conflict and feels that the French will soon be faced with a choice of evacuating their forces entirely or resuming military operations. Meanwhile, the captain of a French corvette who recently sailed up the Mekong told the charge that Viet Minh flags and banners were flying from villages and huts all along the river in south Vietnam. Comment: The American army attache in Saigon reported that on 14 an.d~5 August alone five demonstrations by Vietnamese under Viet Minh influence occurred at scattered points throughout the southern zone. In several instances troops of the French expeditionary corps had, to intervene. The current weakness of the Vietnamese government, the chaotic nature of the refugee movement, and popular disillusionment over the peace settlement all lend themselves to Viet -Minh exploitation. SOUTH ASIA 25X1A 2. India believed facing dilemma on Goa: The American embassy in New Delhi believes India now faces a dilemma of its own making in its campaign to take over Portuguese 22 Aug 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved For R 7 75A001700040001-8 25X1A 25X1A Approved For4jolease 2-004102-1 10 m RAM -FARM A - 5,Q,p01700040001-8 enclaves in India.. Having built up this campaign as a major domestic issue, and having encountered .Portuguese determination and foreign protests, New Delhi is "all dressed up and no place to go." Indian government leaders realize that if no clear-cut action is taken, the Socialists and Communists will try to seize the initiative and produce some "passive resistance martyrs" of their own. For the present, however, the government must choose between living with the "Goan problem" fQr some time to come, or taking steps which would seriously injure Indian prestige abroad. Comment: New Delhi's pride has probably been wounded and its domestic prestige tarnished by the negative results of its campaign thus far. However, its dilemma, as far as domestic politics are concerned, is more apparent than real, since the government's influence over the press enables it to divert public attention to other issues. NEAR EAST - AFRICA 25X1A French president may urge caution on Moroccan reforms: President Coty will attempt to exert personal 2 5X1 influence in order to restrain Prime Minister Mendes- France from taking action .on Morocco similar to that he took with respect to Tunisia, Comment: Mendes- France's determination to implement a more liberal po icy in Tunisia has caused consternation among the powerful Moroccan settler lobbies in Paris, Their pressure tactics, combined with the fact that Mendes-France himself is believed skeptical as to Morocco's readiness for self-government, make unlikely the formulation of a policy for Morocco similar to that announced for Tunisia. 22 Aug 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved For Rel CIA-RDP79TOO 75AO01700040001-8 25X1A Approved For' Tease 2004/02/10 : CIA-RDP79T009754001700040001-8 LATIN AMERICA 25X1A 4. Brazilian presidential crisis seen entering new phase: The American air attache in Rio de Janeiro reports that Brazilian air force investigators believe President Vargas will resign if they prove his son "master- minded" the 5 August attack against an antiadministration newspaper publisher which resulted in the murder of an .air force major. These investigators have hopes of producing such proof, according to the reports. Meanwhile, the American naval attache in Brazil states that qualified observers there feel the political crisis is again growing acute, with indications that prominent poli- ticians may be involved. Comment: The Brazilian air force is not powerful enough to force Vargas' resignation without assistance from the army high command; moreover, a new, pro-Vargas air minister was appointed on 18 August. Key army generals were reported on 13 August to have suspended their earlier pressure for the president's resignation. However, should the air force investigation prove conclusively that the Vargas family is closely linked to the crime, army leaders would probably reassess their position. 22 Aug 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 25X1A Approved For Rele 75AO01700040001-8