CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 2, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 16, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

rDeclassified in Part,- Sanitized Copy Ap4proved7f7oor PRelseaEsec2R01E3/7,07/31 ? CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0 -/
4
050X1
US OFFICIALS ONLY
16 October 1954 ffe j,
e9
0 Copy No. c,, 9
00 ej
"Jo
or CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
?frj
Z
Z'
frj
#ef
cHc.,k?,,,,. ir, fl?
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS $ C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: fJ
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: .1%.151?REVIEVVER;
;
? //
/7/
?
er
//0 7AM1/#4 TOP SECRET)eclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved 7,1?07,03/7/M
for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
50X1
50X1
e#:
If)
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
1,4se
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Soviet naval vessels sighted near Tsingtao (page 3).
20 Comment on Sino-Indian trade agreement (page 3).
FAR EAST
3.4, Opposition to Rhee's attitude on American aid program develop-
ing in Korea (page 4).
4. Communist troops may be staging for attacks on Quemoys.(page 5
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Comment on Vietnamese premier's use of military promotion
power (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
6. New reports on possible resignation of Prime Minister Nehru
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Egyptian university faculty and students plan antiregime activi-
ties (page 7).
16 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN. Page 2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
GENERAL
1. Soviet naval vessels sighted near Tsingtao:
A Soviet naval force consisting of two
World War II type destroyers, two
coastal submarines, and two small mine-
sweepers was sighted on 11 October in
the Yellow Sea about 110 miles southeast of the Shantung Peninsula,
apparently heading toward Tsingtao. The convoy's port of depar-
ture is unknown. A small amount of deck cargo was observed on
the destroyers.
Comment: The composition of the naval
force and the presence of deck cargo suggest that the vessels are
not on a training or good-will cruise, but are being transferred to
the Chinese Communist navy at Tsingtao. The Chinese Commu-
nist navy has three or four submarines but no destroyers.
A lack of surface vessels as large as
destroyers has undoubtedly been a deterrent to Communist am-
phibious assaults on the Nationalist-held offshore islands. The
delivery of these ships to the Chinese Communists would increase
the threat to the Nationalist navy, whose antisubmarine defenses
are weak. Nationalist ships are particularly vulnerable in the
Tachen Islands area, where the Nationalist air force has been un-
able to provide effective air support for naval units.
2. Comment on Sino-Indian trade agreement:
?
The firSt general Sino-Indian trade pact,
signed on 14 October, appears to have
been political rather than economic in
purpose, like the trade agreements recently signed by Communist
China with Indonesia and Ceylon and about to be signed with Burma.
The signing of the Sino-Indian agreement on the eve of Nehru's de-
parture for Peiping is, however, 'unlikely to affect the outcome of
his visit there.
The commodities to be exchanged--with
the exception of tires, tubes, and motor vehicles which are still
16 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
Noel
embargoed to China by most other countries--are not of special
interest unless it develops that they are to be shipped in consid-
erable quantities. No significant expansion of trade between the
two countries is anticipated.
FAR EAST
3. Opposition to Rhee's attitude on American aid program develop-
ing in
orea:
Delay in reaching a final agreement on
the American aid program is clearly in-
fluencing South Korean political develop-
ments, according to Ambassador Briggs
in Seoul.
Three committees of Rhee's Liberal
Party have adopted a resolution advising him to replace the min-
isters of finance, commerce, agriculture and the director of the
Office of Planning for failure to solve economic problems, specifi-
cally rising prices. The resolution suggested a need for "responsi-
ble administration."
Ambassador Briggs observes that divi-
sions existing within the party are coming to a head and that Rhee,
who has been deeply absorbed in international affairs, must soon
decide whether to force a showdown with dissatisfied elements.
Comment: The resolution attacking
cabinet ministers is an inTireTrgiap at Rhee, who has attributed
South Korean economic difficulties to "inadequate and wasteful"
American aid. Independent editorial comment is also express-
ing anxiety regarding the government's economic policies and is
beginning to question the government's version of current difficul-
ties with the United States. This probably accounts for Rhee's
suggestion on 13 October that Seoul's newspapers be reduced from
ten to two or three.
16 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
4. Communist Communist troops may be staging for attacks on Quemoys:
ity near the Quemoys increased substan-
tially on 14 October. Supply movements of "many" vehicles were
noted in all Communist areas near the islands, and troops were
observed condpcting training, moving weapons, and building forti-
fications.
Moreover, Nationalist reconnaissance
of Communist junks and other shipping in the Quemoy area on the
same day indicated that the troop-lift capacity of these vessels was
52,000. Capacity of shipping normally found near the -Quemoys is
about 20,000. ?
They believe a direct attack on Big Quemoy, with the equipment
and troops presently available to the Communists in the area,
would not be successful.
Comment:
only one Communiairr?Yrof 50,000 troops, plus elements
of a water transport division, is located in the immediate vicinity
of the Quemoys.
Communis s reng in e area
has been increased since August, and it is possible that sufficient
forces are available to make a successful attack on both Quemoys.
Little Quemoy and lesser islands to the southwest could probably
be taken with one army.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Comment on Vietnamese premier's use of military promotion
Premier Ngo Dinh Diem's promotion of
a Vietnamese army colonel to the rank
of general without prior consultation
16 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
Nue
with General Hinh will intensify the bitterness between the premier
and his chief of staff, and make more difficult a compromise be-
tween the government and the army.
The newly named general, Le Van Ty,
is commander of the Vietnamese forces in the Saigon area, and
while still subject to Hinh's orders is presumably in a position
to offer some obstruction to any coup Hinh may attempt. Nothing
is known of Ty's feeling regarding the current political crisis,
but his promotion suggests he favors Diem.
Diem's decision to by-pass Hinh and deal
directly with army officers reflects his feeling that compromise
with Hinh is neither desirable nor possible. He has emphatically
rejected advice that he appoint Hinh's associate, General Xuan, to
the post of defense minister. He believ,s that there is more genu-
ine patriotism among the Binh Xuyen gaigsters than among the
Hinh clique, and his attempts to broaden his government have been
directed toward negotiations?still inconclusive--with the Binh
Xuyen.
SOUTH ASIA
Nehru's circu-
lar letter to Congress Party members
stating his desire to relinquish some of
his responsibilities was not a political
stunt but a true expression of his thoughts.
Raj agopalachari,
former governor general of India, was probably Nehru% choice as
the next president of the Congress Party, while V. K. Krishna Menon,
leader of India's UN delegation, had definitely been cnosen as
Nehru% eventual successor as foreign minister. No firm choice
for the post of prime minister had yet been made.
The secretary general of the Indian
Ministry of External Affairs told the American charg?n 14 October,
however, that he had been informed there would be no hasty action.
16 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
'????
Comment: Nehru is most unlikely to give
up the post of prime minister while major international problems
remain which he thinks he can help solve. He might quit the presi-
dency of the Congress Party, since he has no interest in the party
organization as such and can control its policies as prime minister.
Rajagopalachari, one of India's three most
respected statesmen, might be willing to take over the party presi-
dency despite his advanced age and uncertain health, There would
be opposition in many quarters to Krishna Menon as foreign minis-
ter, and he cannot be considered a firm candidate for this post.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Egyptian university faculty and students plan antiregime activities:
Students and professors of Alexandria
University plan to start antiregime
activities with the reopening of the uni-
versities,
Comment: The regime has managed to
postpone since early Sept-e-171-e7U-e reopening of the three universi-
ties which have become a major center of opposition to the Nasr
regime. Despite efforts to tighten control, including widespread
reorganization and the appointment of a new minister of education,
the universities with large Wafdist and Moslem Brotherhood fac-
tions are likely to continue as a serious threat to the regime in
terms of their rabble-rousing ability.
Alexandria, the scene of serious anti-
regime demonstrations in July, is a stronghold of pro-Nagib
sentiment and accordingly a favorable site for such demonstra-
tions in future.
16 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001700200001-0
50X1