CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001700590001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 4, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

'0~ 1200411114Wp ~~JWff300971v"00,0
4 September 1954
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
C ;~! UMAENT NO.
NO CHANGE- IN CLASS
FJ DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TO S 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HFt 70-2
DATE: j~. #-? REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
000F,
00419f1W M"0975
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
.1. Comment on Chinese Communist threat to Quemoys (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on Communist-sponsored "Cambodian Democratic Republic"
e5
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4.
5. Jordanian king threatens Israel with retaliation (page 6)
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Belgians and Dutch fear further delay in agreement on German rearma-
ment (page 7).
7. Scelba government seen ready to accept Trieste settlement (page 8).
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4 Sept 54
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
]attempts to organize "West Irian" division
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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FAR EAST
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1. Comment on Chinese Communist threat to Quemoys:
The Chinese Communist artillery bombard-
ment of the Quemoy Islands on 3 September
(see map, p. 4) appears to be aimed at test-
ing American intentions as to defense of the
major Nationalist-held islands off the East China coast. As of 2400
on 3 September (Washington time) the Communists had apparently
taken no additional action against the Quemoys.
Following several weeks of propaganda threats
to "liberate" the offshore islands and several days of reported Commu-
nist troop movements in the Amoy area and reconnaissance of the
Quemoys, on the afternoon of 3 September Communist artillery fired
on the Quemoy area for more than five hours, reportedly giving Little
Quemoy a "thorough working over," Nationalist sources report that two
members of the American military advisory group there were killed,
The Chinese Communists are believed to have
in the Amoy area at least the 150,000 troops estimated to be required
for capture of the Quemoys. Air units as currently disposed could not
provide effective support for an attack but could be brought up quickly,.
Lacking regular landing craft in the area, the Communists would depend
on a large number of junks and fishing vessels to transport forces for
any attack.
Chinese Nationalist forces on the Quemoys
amount to about 43,000 regular troops--1200 of them on Little Quemoy--
plus perhaps 11,000 guerrillas; the regulars are American-trained and
newly equipped. Nationalist air units based on Formosa could provide
the defenders with fighter and bomber support, and destroyers and des-
troyer escorts could provide supporting fire against landing attempts,
A Nationalist official said last week that Taipei is determined to defend
the major offshore islands "come what may." The morale of Nationalist
forces now on the Quemoys is said to be good, but it could deteriorate
rapidly in the absence of effective support.
It is doubtful that a Communist assault on the
Quemoys would presage an early assault on Formosa, as the Commu-
nists would be expected to bypass these islands a' a Formosa operation
were imminent. The Communists presumably calculate that capture of
the Quemoys--the most heavily defended of the Nationalist island out-
posts--would depress morale on Formosa and make Nationalist officials
more vulnerable to current Communist propaganda aimed at securing
their defection.
4 Sept 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
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2. Comment on Communist- sponsored "Cambodian Democratic Republic"
A broadcast by the Viet Minh-sponsored
agreement for the demobilization of Cambodian dissident forces,
referred for the first time to the existence of a "Cambodian Demo-
cratic Republic." The broadcast implied that the legality and sov-
ereignty of this government over all. of Cambodia had been confirmed
at Geneva.
"free Cambodian" radio on 23 August, the
deadline date provided in the cease-fire
Actually, the Geneva agreements in effect
confirmed the existence of a single sovereign government--the Royal
Government of Cambodia--and provided that the Viet Minh-sponsored
dissidents would be demobilized and later integrated into the national
community under the auspices of the royal government,
The Viet Minh's evident intention to continue
to foment dissident activity in Cambodia in disregard of the cease-
fire agreement is further borne out by the failure of the Cambodian
dissidents to demobilize by the stipulated deadline.
were said to have reached at Geneva.
These developments clearly indicate that the
Communists do not intend to abide by the reported "gentlemen's agree-
ment" on the neutralization of Cambodia which Eden and Chou En-Jai
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who is sympa-
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attempts to organize "West Irian,? division:
organize and arm a special West Irian (Netherlands New Guinea)
division to be stationed in East Indonesia. Members of the division
would come chiefly from PERBEPSI,, a Communist-controlled vet-
erans organization, and officer would be chosen on the basis of their
loyalty
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Comment: High government officials
have suggested the use of force to wrest control of West Irian
from the Netherlands should all peaceful efforts fail.
ably be to arm PERBEPSI so that it could serve as a counter toanti-
Communist factions in the army, A combination of political and
military opposition thwarted his attempt a year ago to arm the group,
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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4.
5, Jordanian king threatens Israel with retaliation:
4 Sept 54
King Hussain of Jordan, in protesting to
Ambassador Mallory against repeated
Israeli army incursions into Jordan, de-
clared that if Israel continues to ask for
trouble, Jordan can provide plenty.
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The chief of the Israeli -Jordanian Mixed
Armistice Commission believes that the
Israeli army is trying to provoke Jordan
into reopening hostilities and that Jordan's
national guard may fall into the Israeli trap,
according to the American army attache in
Amman.
Comment: The national guard, which is
now deployed along the frontier, is an undisciplined force in com-
parison with the Arab Legion and may be provoked into violating
Israeli territory,
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WESTERN EUROPE
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6. Belgians and Dutch fear further delay in agreement on German rearm-
t
amen
:
in a conver-25X1
sation Counselor Sprouse of the Ameri-
can embassy in Brussels on 1 September,
expressed fear that the French might now
reject any formula for German rearmament.
told Ambas- 25X1
sador Matthews in The Hague on I .September
that the big question now is whether Mendes-France is actually trying
to block any form of . German rearmament. He said he considered it
most important not to "isolate" France in future negotiations.
Comment: The Benelux countries can be
expected to back wholeheartedly any program for West German re-
armament on which the major NATO powers can agreed
4 Sept 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7
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7. Scelba government seen.ready to accept Trieste settlement:
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Premier Scelba and various high.Italian
Foreign Ministry officials will reluctantly
accept the Trieste solution proposed by
Britain and the United States even if
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These leaders,
are willing to risk the resignation in protest of Foreign Minister
Piccioni and violent demonstrations by Communists in Zone A and
by the inhabitants of Crevatini, who would fall under Yugoslav rule--
either of which developments might cause the fall of the government.
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The leaders feel, however, that there is
even greater danger that the government will fall if parliamentary
debate on the Foreign Ministry budget begins this fall with the Trieste
issue still unsettled. They foresee a drastic reorientation of Italian
policy if the Scelba government falls. 25X1
in the London negotiations on the Trieste problem. Italy has asked
token territorial concessions as a supplement to the 31 May proposals
presented it by the United States and Britain.
he question of territory is the only major stumbling block left
Comment:
With the reconvening of parliament on
21 September, the Foreign Ministry budget debate immediately there-
after, and the anniversary of the 1953 Anglo-American declaration on
8 October, the government may be put in a very difficult position if
a Trieste solution is not reached soon
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