CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001800190001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 2, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 18, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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d Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/12 : CIA-RDP79T00975A001800190001-1
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18 November 1954
Copy No. *JU
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Vyshinsky "explains" Soviet position on atomic energy agency
(page 3).
2. Normal diplomatic relations to be established between Peiping and
The Hague (page 3).
3. Moscow embassy reports strong possibility of Orbit security
conference (page 4).
4. London outlines views on.Iranian defense problems (page 5).
FAR EAST
South.Korean officials say currency controversy not settled by
agreement on aid (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
7. French summarize Viet Minh military build-up (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Mendes-France reports Ho "not un-co-operative" (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Vyshinsky "explains" Soviet position on atomic energy agency:
UN delegate Vyshinsky told Ambassador
'Lodge on 15 November that the Soviet
Union was not attempting to prejudge the
international atomic energy agency's re-
lationship to the UN-by-proposing that it should be responsible to
the General Assembly and the Security Council. He said the USSR
was concerned over possible "leakages" or illegal diversion of
fissionable materials, and was seeking to assure that the agency
would operate within the framework of the UN Charter provisions
relating to the security of any state.
Vyshinsky implied that the USSR would
not insist on a ban on atomic weapons prior to the establishment of
the agency. He also questioned the justification of excluding a
;number of states from membership in the agency but, according
to Ambassador Lodge, he did not seem concerned particularly
about Communist China
Comment: In view of the popularity of
the "atoms for peace" program and the rapidity with which the
West has moved toward its implementation, the USSR would not
be inclined--despite past objections--to bear the onus of sabo-
taging it at this time. Moscow is probably reserving its objec-
tions for use in future negotiations on the actual establishment of
the agency.
2. Normal diplomatic relations to be established between Peiping and
TeHague:
A Chinese Communist charge will be
sent to The Hague and the present offi-
cial Dutch representative in Peiping will
be recognized as charge by China, the
Dutch Foreign Ministry informed American officials at The Hague
on 16 November. Dutch officials emphasized that this action was
taken on Peiping's initiative, and that the Chinese did not seek con-
cessions on the question of seating, Communist China in the United
Nations.
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Comment: The Netherlands recog-
nized Communist China in 1350, and has since maintained in
Peiping a "negotiating representative" who has been largely ig-
nored. Sino-British relations were recently normalized by an
exchange of charges, and early in October Radio Peiping an-
nounced that Norway had agreed to exchange ambassadors.
Premier Chou En-lai has suggested
interest in a nonaggression understanding with Ceylon, and has
revealed that contacts are being made for establishing relations
with Afghanistan and Israel. Peiping has never acknowledged
Yugoslav recognition, but might soon do so in keeping with im-
proved USSR relations with Belgrade.
3. Moscow embassy reports strong possibility of Orbit security
conlerence:
The American embassy in Moscow re-
ports that Pravda and Izvestia carried
articles on6NNovember which strongly
suggest that a conference on European
security will be held at Moscow even if Western countries refuse
to attend.
Pravda warned that the Soviet Orbit
will "contemplate new necessary measures" for its "security
and defense" if the West rejects a conference and "strives for
realization" of the Paris agreements. It quoted a French com-
mentator who predicted a separate conference to set up a secu-
rity system and probably to authorize an East German army.
The American embassy in Moscow sug-
gests that the USSR may consider that a security system which
would be open to further adherents at any time would add respect-
ability to its appeals to waverers in Western Europe. The em-
bassy notes, however, that an Orbit conference might merely
issue a "Moscow declaration" stating the willingness of the Orbit
countries to join in a security system.
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ments remain unratified.
Comment; The Moscow press has also
quoted British and American pre fictions that a rump conference
would be held. Such a conference now seems increasingly likely.
Its purpose would be to appeal to West European opponents of
German rearmament. A closed Orbit organization and building
up of an East German army are not likely while the Paris agree-
London outlines views on Iranian defense problems:
According to the Foreign Office, Britain
is prepared to inform the Shah that it
hopes Iran will eventually join some re-
gional defense pact. London feels, how-
action under the 1921.Iranian-Soviet treaty or stir up Iranian pub,
lic opinion.. The Foreign Office stressed that British forces will
.not be committed in Iran.
ever, that Iran must do this in such a way as not to provoke Soviet
Britain believes it is clearly in its inter-
est to secure any possible improvement in the Iranian armed
forces, but t"?it Iran should be advised to develop its forces along
modest lines.
Comment: These views offer a further
indication that Britain is eecoming more favorably inclined toward
the "northern tier" approach to Middle East defense. They also
reflect Britain's belief that Iran will long remain a strategic lia-
bility.
FAR EAST
5. South Korean officials say currency controversy not settled by
agreement on aid:
President Rhee, in a conversation with
Economic Co-ordinator Tyler Wood on
15 November, referred to the 180 hwan
to the dollar exchange rate as if this
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were a matter still to be settled to his satisfaction, according to
Ambassador Briggs, In addition Combined Economic Board
Representative Paek is reported to have told the press on 16 No-
vember that all points of difference with the United States were
settled by the agreement on the draft economic and military aid
minute except "the hwan-dollar matter'
Comment: Under the agreement initialed
on 15 November which presu bly settled this inflammatory issue,
Seoul will make hwan currency available to the UN Command at
open market rates- -currently about 500 to one--and will generally
fix prices of aid goods in accordance with a similar rate. The
"official" rate will still remain at 180 to one, however.
Prime Minister Pyun has already indi-
cated that if the present agreement becomes unworkable, South
.Korea will want to renegotiate the issue. Rhee's plan may be to
make it unworkable and then request a new round of negotiations
for a "permanent" exchange rate.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
French summarize Viet Minh military build-up;
French military headquarters in Indo-
china, summarizing the extensive
build-up of Viet Minh armed forces
to date, estimates that the Viet Minh
now has available one artillery and
the
The Viet Minh has in addition large numbers of inde-
pendent regiments, battalions and companies.
Of the more than 350,000 troops es-
timated by the French to be available to the Viet Minh, approxi-
mately 200,000 are organized into battalion-sized or larger
units. The remainder, in district companies or village guer-
rilla groups, constitute an abundant manpower reserve.
The French anticipate a continued in-
crease in Viet Minh divisional strength, using currently inde-
pendent units now in North Vietnam and those redeploying from
the south, A second artillery division and another infantry
division are being formed, and a third artillery division is
planned for activation 'by the end of this year. Viet Minh capa-
bilities are also being strengthened through the addition of an
artillery regiment to each infantry division,
The chief of the French aid mission to
the Vietnamese army estimates that a force of 15 divisions would
be required to blunt a Viet Minh thrust southward. Even a force
of this size could adopt only delaying tactics unless substantial
reinforcements or support were forthcoming.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Mendes-France reports Ho "not un-co-operative":
Mendes-France told Canadian officials
in Ottawa on 16 November that he had
found Ho Chi Minh "not completely
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un-co-operative.' He said that jean Sainteny, the French repre-
sentative to North Vietnam, is accorded VIP status and cited var-
ious instances of Viet Minh co-,operation with France as reflecting
Hp's attitude. He recommended a "flexible policy" as offering the
best chance in Vietnam.
Comment: The American embassy in
Paris has concluded that pre enFPrench policy is based on the
assumption that no South Vietnam government is going to be able
to cope with the Communists, and that the only realistic approach
is to try to win the Viet Minh away from Communist Chinese and
Russian influence.
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