CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A002900200001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 10, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 5, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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Copy No.
131
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BULLETIN
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DA t 4 EVIEWER:.~
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
State Dept. review completed
VX,0~1014wlzlzsx~(11.001001 2002R/A~'9ATP79 " XV00
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CONTENTS
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5. INCREASING VIOLENCE ON YEMEN-ADEN BORDER LIKELY
UNDER PROPOSED NEW US MIDDLE EAST POLICY
(page 8).
6. AFGHANISTAN MAY HOPE FOR SECURITY GUARANTEE
LEFTIST LABORERS FOR MILITARY SERVICE
8.: SUMATRAN PROGOVERNMENT COMMANDER RECRUITING
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9. PEIPING MAY SLOW INDUSTRIALIZATION
10. BURMA TO REDUCE RICE EXPORTS TO SINO-SOVIET BLOC
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gence Advisory Committee
ANNEX -- Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelli-
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5 Jan 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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5. INCREASING VIOLENCE ON YEMEN-ADEN BORDER LIKELY
An increase can be expected in the armed
violence which has been occurring since
24 December on the disputed Yemen-Aden
Protectorate border. Public charges by
the Yemen government that British air units
have indiscriminately bombed Yemeni vil-
lages during the fighting have not, however,
been confirmed.
The British on 29 December protested
Yemen's dissemination of "misleading" information and stated
that British-led ground forces had routed Yemeni raiders who
crossed the border. The recent increase in tension in the area
has been largely due to Egyptian and Soviet encouragement ac-
companied by the arrival of Soviet-bloc arms in Yemen as well
as a continuing trickle of Saudi arms. The dispute between
Britain and Yemen concerns the location of the border between
the two territories, and arises partly from Yemen's belief that
oil deposits may be discovered in the disputed area.
Britain's military strength at Aden appears
adequate to withstand any Yemeni incursion. In addition to
1,900 ground forces, there are 15 jet fighters.
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6. AFGHANISTAN MAY HOPE FOR SECURITY GUARANTEE
UNDER PROPOSED NEW US MIDDLE EAST POLICY
The unusual interest displayed by Afghan
Foreign Ministry officials in whether or
not Afghanistan is one of the countries to
be covered by the proposed new American
pa icy in e addle East suggests that Kabul may hope to be
given a security guarantee without having to acknowledge it
formally.
Afghanistan requested American military
assistance in 1954 and at that time even showed some willing-
ness to consider association with a "northern tier" defense
arrangement. Since large-scale Soviet aid started shortly
thereafter, its official policy has been one of strict "neutral-
ity.'
Kabul's present interest may be inspired
partially by the increasing pace of Soviet activity in Afghan-
istan and by recent Soviet act=ions in Hungary.
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8. SUMATRAN PROGOVERNMENT COMMANDER RECRUITING
LEFTIST LABORERS FOR MILITARY SERVICE
Lt. Col. Machmour, pro-Djakarta com-
mander of the Second Regiment in North
Sumatra, is calling up rubber estate work-
ers and labor leaders for military service,
according to American sources there.
The American consulate at Medan believes
Machmour, faced with the unreliability of his command, has
decided to arm Communists and leftists against the possibility
of popular action in support of the rebel commander, Colonel
Simbolon.
Comment Estate workers in the Siantar area, where
this regiment is based, are members of a
Communist-dominated labor federation. Machmour reportedly
has been friendly with the local Communists; his use of them
presumably has the approval of central government authorities
in Medan and indicates their willingness to accept Communist
Support.
Colonel Simbolon, who is in the Siantar area,
may decide that the formation of an armed Communist force calls
for early preventive action.
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9. PEIPING MAY SLOW INDUSTRIALIZATION
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as
told the consulate general in Hong Kong
that serious revisions are being made in
China's Second Five-Year Plan (1958-
1962). The revisions, which are to be presented to the cen-
tral committee in February, are said to include lowering of
the over-all rate of investment and:. the reduction of heavy
industry's share of total investment in favor of agriculture.
The benefits derived from the revisions are in large meas-
ure to be passed on to the Chinese peasant.
Concern in Peiping
over mounting peasant aissa is ac on was an important fac-
tor in this decision; recent events in Eastern Europe also
strongly influenced it.
The consulate general believes that these
statements may generally reflect current thinking in Peiping.
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The economic policies laid down by Peiping
for the First Five-Year Plan--and projected for the second--
enabled the nation to make impressive advances toward indus-
trialization, and'the general tone of official pronouncements
from Peiping has been one of satisfaction with the way things
were going. There have been, however, recent signs of con-
cern over the rapid growth of heavy industry at the expense of
light industry and better living standards, particularly for the
farm population.
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10. BURMA TO REDUCE RICE EXPORTS TO SINO-
SOVIET BLOC
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The Burmese government is reliably
reported to have reached agreement
with the USSR and other Communist
countries with which Burma conducts
barter trade for a substantial reduction
of rice exports to these countries during the current cal-
endar year. According to reports reaching the American
embassy in Rangoon, rice exports to. the Sino-Soviet bloc
in 1957 may total as little as 250,000 tons. The bulk of the
reductions would apply to the USSR and the European Sate1.
lites, as Burma is said to be well satisfied with its trade
relations with Communist China.
Under its reported new policy with
respect to barter trade, Burma will ship only enough rice
to countries with which it has barter agreements to pay
for goods they can sell Burma in competition with other
countries.
Comment Such a rice export schedule would con-
stitute a substantial disengagement on
the part of Burma from its uneconomic and unpopular bar-
ter trade with the bloc. Exports to the bloc during the
Burmese fiscal year ending 30 September approximated
500,000 tons.
Rangoon's change in policy has been en-
gendered by greatly improved prospects for cash sales of
rice
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ANNEX
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Watch Report 335, 4 January 1956
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against the continental US or its possessions in the
immediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against US forces abroad, US allies or areas periph-
eral to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East
is improbable in the immediate future.
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