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December 15, 2016
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December 15, 1960
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Zzzz/ 000, 41, Approved ForWeaselOR/1591:19FTT0097 A( 05400390001-9 25X1 15 December 1960 Copy No. L; Ts I -d TELL, VE CE DIA and DOS review(s) completed. IJT H 0, .3 'T in ZZAzrE IN CLASS. PC r t -OLASSMED glag. wu'.'3a,? T"s TS S C Q~s2 ,. V W LATE. HR 10 1 jwv n1Po? g '9! REVIEWER / Approved For Release /1 00975A005400390001-9 / EC r 25X1 Approved For Release 2002/09/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO05400390001-9 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2002/09/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO05400390001-9 M Tair- - f -- - - - - - - - - - - - - CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 15 December 1960 DAILY BRIEF I. THE COMMUNIST F/0 ME 0 401\ 1 II. ASIA-AFRICA Iran,. [The Shah's action in publicly labeling interna' tional oil prorationing "a nice theory but unrealistic in practice" and his demand that Iran produce at least 50 per- cent of the annual growth in Middle East oil output will probably prevent the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from developing into an effective force 25X1 in the near future, Without Iranian participation the scheme of Saudi oil boss Abdullah Tariki and Venezuelan Oil Minis- ter Perez Alfonzo for limiting, oil production, world-wide sharing of markets, and price maintenance is unworkable. The Shah's statements reflect his irritation at Tarikils and 25X1 Alfonzols efforts to dominate OPEC as well as his hopes that Iran will receive preferential treatment by the oil companies at the expense of the Arab Pr ~ducers.7F a 0 Approved For lease 2002/U9TTTT- =-RDP79TOO97TA005400390001-9 N 25X1 0 BLOC PON 25 Approved For Release 2002/09/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO05400390001-9 *Ethiopia.- LA group of security and Imperial Bodyguard officers apparently has staged a successful coup against the regime of Emperor Haile Selassie Crown Prince Asfa Wossen has announced his willingness to serve as a salaried head of state in a constitutional monarchy and has promised to speed the modernization of the country's feudal society. Although the Crown Prince is known to favor a liberalization of the regime, there are some indications that he has been subjected to duress, 25X1 15 Dec 60 I"iNNI Jvcu rU~ r~c~ j DAILY BRIE F j/ .. 25/4 Approved Fgel ase 2002/09/11 CIA-RDP79T00 005400390001-9 by the coup's engineers, headed by Director of Security Lt, Col. Workeneh Gabeyhouj The 6,000-man Bodyguard is in full control of key points in Addis Ababa, and most of the influential palace advisors apparently are under arrest. The 25,000-man regular army-- only one battalion of which is stationed in the, capital city has taken no definite position concerning the coup,Cand there are indications that its leaders are split on the question. The US Air Attache reports that Armed Forces Chief of Staff Merid ordered two divisions to prepare for movement to the Addis Ababa area, and a clash between these units and the Bodyguard could occur at any time. The Bodyguard reportedly is arming civilians with automatic weapons The coup's leaders have set up a new government and have stated that their regime will be pro-Western and will honor all international commitments. Despite their initial success, they face formidable difficulties in extending their control beyond the Addis Ababa area in the face of opposition from powerful local leaders and from some elements of the army. The Emperor, who has left Brazil headed for Ethiopia, remains the only personage drawing his support from all important elements of the disparate Ethiopian population, and he may still be able to mobilize the opposition to the coup. France -Algeria: The Algerian rioting seems not to have deterred President De Gaulle from his intention to press his self-determination policy for Algeria. His next public state- ment on the situation now is expected soon after today's cabinet meeting. French officials are taking the line that only minority elements of the European and Moslem communities were in- volved in the rioting. Although the government's roundup of both European and Moslem riot ringleaders is designed to under- score this view, continued."firing on Moslem demonstrators by 15 Dee 60 25 DAILY BRIEF iii Approved For Rolease 2002/09/11 : CIA-RDP79T0g975A005400390001-9 PM Approved Fo,el ase 2002/09/11 CIA-RDP79T009 05400390001-9 25 FEE j French security forces further reduces the possibility of the peaceful Moslem-settler relationshi hi h D G ' p w c e aulle s Algerian policy requires. There is no evidence that the FLN fomented the Moslem demonstrations but its 20 nfC cu or he Communist par y is reported planning by its anti.-US and pro-Soviet public statements. (Page 5) extensive campaign to nullify the boundary settlement since it took office last September, has encouraged such outbreaks continued violent agitation against the US on the issue of the 1942 boundary settlement with Peru which the US and other guarantor powers reaffirmed on 7 December. The demonstrations on 12 and 13 December against US instal- lations in Guayaquil, Quito, and other cities--following similar violence against the US Consulate in Guayaquil and against the embassy in Quito on 9 December--are apparently connected with initial moves in the Communist plan. The Velasco government, which has carried out an IV. WATCH COMMITTEE CONCLUSIONS A. o Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities against the United States or its possessions in the im- mediate future, B. GNo Sino-Soviet bloc country intends deliberately to initiate direct military action against US forces abroad, US allies, or areas peripheral to the bloc in the immediate future.j C. LT he formation of a new pro-Western government in Laos, together with Phoumi's success in securing substantial control of Vientiane (excluding the airfield and other pockets), greatly increases the probability of agressive Pathet Lao hostile activity throughout the country. The ' 15 Dec 60 DAILYBRIEF iv Approved For Release 2002/09/11 : CIA-RDP79T0 975A005400390001-9 & ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 a R 10 M I M M MR/I G ommunist bloc has substantially increased its delivery capabilities further to assist the Kong Le/Pathet Lao forces to meet developments D. Other developments affording increased opportunities for exploitation by the Communist :bloc ETHIOPIA The Ethiopian coup which was launched in the absence of Emperor Haile Selassie in Brazil, appears to have as its objective the establishment of a pro-Western consti- tutional monarchy, which the Crown Prince possibly under duress, has agreed to head. No immediate Sino-Soviet bloc reaction has been forthcoming, and no signs of bloc involvement are yet apparent. The Imperial Bodyguard appears to have the upper hand; the attitude of the army is not clear. Discussions between these two military elements are in progress apparently in an effort to avoid civi 15 Dec 60 . DAILY BRIE F ///%% ~~NNI Vvcaa 1 VI IlG1~QJG LVVL/VJ/ 1 1 . ~/1~I1/r I I 1 VVJIJ/1VVJYVVJJVVV ICJ 7//Jy/y 25X1 Approved Fo Release 2002/09/11 - CIA-RDP79T0097~A005400390001-9 Shah's Views eaken dIn a recent interview the Shah of Iran publicly denounced in- ternational prorationing--a scheme whereby Iran and the major Arab oil producers would limit production, share markets, and thus maintain high prices--as a "nice theory but unrealistic in practice." This action will probably prevent the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from developing into an effective anti-industry force in the near future.] 'Set up only last September, largely through the efforts of Saudi oil boss Abdullah Tariki and Venezuela's Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons Juan Perez Alfonzo, OPEC has five members- -Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela-- which account for about 80 percent of the free world's oil re- serves and more than two thirds of the oil moving in interna- tional trade. OPEC has serious structural and conceptual weak- nesses which reduce its threat to the international oil industry; however, active Iranian participation would have confronted the industry with at least apparent unity among Middle East produc- er LThe Shah's statements were probably sparked by his growing irritation at Tariki's and Perez Alfonzo's efforts to dominate OPEC and their many recent statements suggesting that Iran had agreed to limit production, share increasing production gains with Arab states, and share markets. He has also become in- creasingly aware that Iran's best hopes for rapid increases in revenues rest with winning preferential treatment from the oil companies at the expense of its Arab neighbors. In addition to dismissing prorationing, the Shah noted that Iran should receive at least half of the annual increase in Middle East oil production and should return to.its pre-1951 position of accounting for 60 percent of the area's output. Presently, Iran's 1,011,000 barrels-a- day crude production. is less than 22 percent of the total) It is also doubtful Kuwait will cooperate fully with the members of OPEC. Approved For Rel 15 Dec 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 390001-9 Page 1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2002/09/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO05400390001-9 The UAR, miffed at having been left out of OPEC in order to assure Iranian membership, probably would welcome a breakdown of that organization and a return of Arab oil policy matters to the Arab League, in which Cairo has the dominant voice. F- I 25X1 Approved For a lease 20 2/09/11 : Cl - 0390001-9 15 Dec 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 25X1 Approved For Release 2002/09/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO05400390001-9 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2002/09/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO05400390001-9 25X1 Approved F Anti-US Violence in Ecuador Ecuador's small Communist party is reported planning extensive exploitation of anti-US sentiment in. Ecuador by at- tempting to place. sole responsibility on the. US for the 7 De- cember declaration by the guarantor powers upholding the validity of the 1942 Rio Protocol, The guarantor powers are the US, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, and. the protocol, which provides for a definitive settlement of the 140-year-old bound- ary dispute with Peru, grants a favorable territorial award to the latter. Since taking office last September, President Velasco's government has carried out an extensive campaign to nullify the treaty. This campaign has had virtually unan- imous public support. Demonstrations on 12. and 13 December against various US installations in Guayaquil, Quito, and. other provincial cities included several insults to the US flag. These demon- strations followed similar violence against the US Consulate General in Guayaquil and the US Embassy in Quito on .9 Decem- ber. This unrest is apparently connected with the initial of - fort to carry out the Communist plan. Additional anti-US out- breaks are likely. The Ecuadorean Government has encouraged such outbreaks by provocative public statements and possibly other means. Man- uel Araujo, the anti-US and pro-Castro minister of government who controls the police and is responsible for maintenance of civil order, has declared in recent speeches: "If Soviet guns are needed to defend our country, let them come" "If circum- stances make it necessary to seek aid from Russia, we will ally ourselves with. Russia!' The Velasco regime is also resorting to a variety of extrem- ist threats designed to neutralize the guarantor statement and win official and popular support for its cause in the hemisphere. These threats include the establishment of closer ties with Cuba and diplomatic relations with the USSR and China and withdrawal 25X1 Approved For . 15 Dec 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 25X1 Approved F - 5400390001-9 from the Organization of American States. Foreign Min- ister Chiriboga, who has teamed with Velasco in leading Ecuador's attacks on the protocol; advised Ambassador Bernbaum on 10 December that the declaration had crys- tallized the efforts of the vice president, Araujo, and other cabinet members to eliminate "excessive dependence on. the US" and seek relations with the USSR and China-' ,In a 10 De- cember public statement apparently timed, to reinforce such threats, Chiriboga announced that Czechoslovakia would soon reopen its legation in Quito, which was closed by the pred- ecessor administration in 1957;, and. that Ecuador would es- tablish a mission of equal rank in Prague in January. I The Ecuadorean military, who realize Peru's marked mil- itary superiority and are politically hostile toward Araujo, are a potentially moderating influence on Velasco. In Peru, where official and public opinion was elated over the guarantor decla- ration, the army is sending reinforcements to the border area, including 12 tanks--probably as precaution against the outbreak of an armed conflict. W or Peruvian fleet elements have also sailed northward. Approved or Release - 005400390001-9 15 Dec 60 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 25X1 25X1 Approved Fo2elease 2002/09/11: CIA-RDP79T00975A 05400390001-9 25X1 THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Director, Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization Director, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Chairman, Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Executive Secretary, National Security Council The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Commandant, United States Marine Corps Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director Approved Fpr CIA-REM A005400390001-9 OOF TOP SECRET Approved For ReleaseV{i9~Qp/1SLV~WI00975A005400390001-9