CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A006900320001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 6, 1963
• Content Type: REPORT

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6 April 1963
Copy No. Cl
State Dept. review completed
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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6 April 1963
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
CONTENTS
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2. Brazil: Goulart's moves against Governor Lacerda
increase political tensions. (Page 2)
3. USSR-Brazil: Prospects for substantial increases
in Soviet-Brazilian trade appear limited. ' (Page 3)
5. NATO--Nuclear Force- West German and French
views. (Page 5)
6. Canada: Liberals have a good chance to win a plu-
rality in next Monday's election. (Page 6)
7. South Korea: Junta leader agrees to suspend his
proposal to extend military rule. (Page 7)
9. Poland: Regime's economic policy meets with
popular dissatisfaction. (Page 9)
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110 Notes: Poland;
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USSR; . Argentina. (Page 11)
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*Brazil. Political tension is increasing as a re-
sult of actions bythe Goulart regime against anti-
Communist Governor Lacerda of Guanabara State.
. Goulart is evidently seeking to create a situation
of unrest in Rio de Janeiro which would permit feder-
al intervention to depose Lacerda. In recent months,
the government has interrupted food supplies for the
area, given wide publicity to scandals in the Guana-
bara police, and ordered federal troops to counter
Lacerda's prohibition of the pro-Cuban Congress of
Solidarity.
Pro- Communist First Army Commander Osvino
Alves--whose headquarters is in Rio de Janeiro--has
now apparently seriously proposed early intervention
against Lacerda but is being strongly opposed by anti-
Communist War Minister Kruel. A decision by
Goulart to back Kruel.at this time would probably
indicate only, that Goulart believes that he is not yet
in position for this action.
Intervention is ' permitted under the Brazilian
constitution under certain imprecisely defined con-
ditions such asto'assure "the independence and har-
mony ofthe branches" of a state government. In
order to legalize the action, however, the executive
requires cooperation from either the judiciary or the
legislature.
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USSR-Brazil: (Soviet bloc economic negotiations
with Brazil continue to encounter difficulties, and
prospects for substantial increases in trade appear
limited.))
(The difficulties stem largely from Soviet reluc-
tance to undertake the economic commitments sug-
gested by Brazil. Negotiations for a new long-term
Soviet-Brazilian trade pact are continuing, however)
(The question of how much of Brazil's chief ex-
ports, especially coffee and cocoa, are to be traded
remains unresolved. A Brazilian Foreign Ministry
official states Brazil had hoped to obtain 600,000 to
1,000,000 tons of Soviet wheat and some 3,000,000
tons of Soviet oil this year, but .the USSR states it
cannot supply those amounts. Brazil, in turn, can-
not supply the rice and leather requested by the USSR.)
(Trade between the two countries reached about
$70 million in the last year of their first trade pact
(1960-1962), and the 1963 target may be over $100
million)
(Difficulties have also cropped up in Poland's eco-
nomic negotiations with Brazil. Talks on trade and
aid, which were concluded in Rio on 3 April, appar-
ently went badly. In particular, little progress seems
to have been made toward allocating the remaining
$36 million of the $70 million. in Polish industrial de-
velopment credits which Brazil accepted in 1961.
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NATO--Nuclear. Force: foreign Minister Schroeder
told Ambassador Stevenson on 3 April that if the multi-
lateral nuclear force (MLF) does not come into being, the
Germans would ultimately seek equal status with Britain
ticipants~
(This statement appears to represent a shift in Bonn's
position on this issue. Schroeder said the Germans pre-
fer the MLF solution principally for political and psycho-
logical reasons, but implied that he was worried that it
might involve a control system giving the US the prepon-
derant v 'ce over that of a majority of the European par-
and France as a nuclear power)
QThe French are intimating in NATO that an inter-
allied force will "inevitably" involve a change in the NATO
chain of .command established by the North Atlantic Council
(NAC) "many years ago." US Ambassador Finletter sus-
pects France is building up a case that it has a right to
vote on--and to veto if it desires--any action which may
be taken regaiding the command arrangements for a NATO
nuclear force)
(Secretary General Stikker has also said he is worried
by the French attitude and thinks it is desirable that the
command arrangements be made virtually final. before the
NATO ministerial meetin in late May lest a major dispute
be spotlighted at that time F_ I
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Canada: The US Embassy in Ottawa believes a
trend favoring the Liberals has set in, giving them a
good chance .of a plurality in the 8 April electi n.
The likelihood of a Liberal majority is small
The embassy considers that Liberal prospects
have ecently improved because of support from the
Quebec provincial machine, and Liberal leader Pear-
son's sharp attacks on Prime Minister Diefenbakerm
Enthusiasm for Diefenbaker on the other hand has
been dampened by his carelessness with fact and by
his florid campaign style. One pollster reports that
three out of ten Canadians are so disgusted with na-
tional politics that they may not vote)
. (The Social Credit Party . is still expe ted to. in-
crease its representation over last year.
(Speculation is increasing that Diefenbaker will
precipitate a constitutional crisis by refusing to re-
sign if the Liberal plurality is narrow l
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*South Korea: (Pak Chong-hui. has agreed to
suspend'his proposed referendum for extension of
military rule, according to a member of the junta
supreme council. He told a US Embassy officer
that following.the announcement of Pak's decision
a resumption of political activity will be permitted,
but did not say when. the announcement would be
made. He claimed that the, situation would be re-
examined next October and a decision made on
whether to hold elections for a civilian government
or hold a referendum on the prolongation of mili-
tary rule. It was the regime's present intention to
hold elections, making possible the seating of a
e e nment this year as required by the con-
n w gov
stitution
(There have been some indications, that the
civilian political leaders might go along with this
kind of an arrangement provided they believe they
would have an opportunity to seek representation
in the new government. They have emphasized
that the assurance of elections wa necessary for
any compromise to be acceptable
(The proposed plan will still permit. Pak and his
backers to maneuver to ;perpetuate their power. Pak
might very well be "persuaded" to run for president
as he had contemplated in his original plans for re-
taining power-)) F
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*Poland: For the first time since 1956, all major
elements of the Polish population simultaneously ap-
pear to be displeased with the regime?s domestic eco-
nomic policy. The prevalent popular mood. could
lead to widespread local disturbances and may cause
a shake-up within Gomulka's regime.
Angry public reactions commenced with the de-
cision to raise prices on coal, gas, electricity, and
other fuels announced by Premier Cyrankiewicz in
a nationally televised speech to the parliament on
28 M/larch, When debate on the decree opened. on
the following day, minority non-Communist deputies
implied the decision was wrong and in a veiled way
warned of difficulties which might result.
On 1 April, party boss Gomulka reportedly was
called to the politically important Zeran Automobile
Plant--its armed. workers helped bring him to power--
to help stave off a strike in protest over the increases.
The US Embassy in Warsaw also has received sev-
eral reports of strikes in coal-producing Silesia.
The fuel price increases will force white-collar
workers for the first time to spend a significant por-
tion of their incomes on housing expenses, even
.though rents themselves will remain at the same low
rates. Farmers do not accept regime claims that
promised increased. payments for hogs and other
agricultural produce will compensate for increased
prices of industrial products, especially coal.
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NOTES
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Poland: The Polish party--and presumably the
others in Eastern Europe--seems not to be receiving
adequate information and guidance from Moscow on
bloc affairs. A knowledgeable and usually reliable
Polish party source recently told a US Embassy of -
ficial that "at the moment there is no firm direction
from Moscow nor in Warsaw," that any Soviet bloc
action will be taken in "jerks and withdrawals," and
that this situation would continue until a new course
is charted. He attributed this to Moscow's dispute
with Communist China and observed that Polish
leaders now regard even the wide differences in the
party over domestic policies as secondary to the ef-
fects of the Sino-Soviet dispute,
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*USSR: The intended mission of the lunar probe
launched from Tyuratam on 2 April still cannot be
established. It appears that the probe failed to land
on the lunar surface and there is no evidence to sug-
gest that the probe is now in a lunar orbit. The lack
of Soviet announcements on the terminal phase of. the
flight suggests that its intended mission was not ac-
complished.
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*Argentina: (ome navy rebels are complying
with the negotiated terms for a cease-fire, but
capitulation of the main naval base has not been
officially acknowledged, despite the individual sur-
render of the base commander and the marine corps
commander. Other rebel leaders have fled to Uru-
guay. The truce terms include the surrender of
both civilian and.military rebel leaders who are to
be placed on trial. The government is reported
making widespread arrests of civilians suspected
of aiding the rebellion as civilian commandos.)
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Counsel to the President
The Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
The Scientific Adviser to the President
The Director of the Budget
The Director, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
The Counselor and Chairman of the Policy Planning Council
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Under Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Assistant Secretary of Defense (International Security Affairs)
The Assistant Secretary of Defense
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
U.S. Rep., Military Committee and Standing Group, NATO
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
Commander in Chief, Atlantic
The Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
The Director, The Joint Staff
The Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
The Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of Army
The Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of Navy
The Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
The Department of Justice
The Attorney General
The Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
The Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
The National Security Agency
The Director
The United States Information Agency
The Director
The National Indications Center
The Director
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