CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A010900140001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 15, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 19, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
DEPT OF STATE review(s) completed.
Top Secret
19 March 1968
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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Poland: Tension is rising, and Gomulka may speak
today on the crisis. (Page 3)
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Chile: Frei is forced to turn to the Communists for
support. (Page 6)
Iran: The Shah is taking a strong line with the oil com-
panies. (Page 7)
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Indonesia: Student demonstrations (Page 10)
Guatemala: State of siege (Page 10)
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Poland: Tension in Warsaw is rising, and there
are rumors that party leader Gomulka will deliver a
major speech on the crisis, possibly today.
There has been an influx to Warsaw of armed police
units from other Polish cities, and, for the first time,
uniformed soldiers with automatic weapons have been ob-
served. These elements presumably are to control the
large crowd which will be assembled if Gomulka speaks.
The situation holds new risks to public order, es-
pecially if the party leader uses the occasion to announce
shifts in the leadership.
A party central committee representative, sched-
uled, to meet Warsaw students yesterday to discuss their
grievances, failed to appear. The assembled students
dispersed peacefully, however, when they, were informed
that a "politburo member" would answer them some day
this week. Many reportedly interpret this to mean that
Gomulka himself will reply.
Regime propaganda is still trying to draw a dis-
tinction between the mass of students and their "Zionist"
instigators and exploiters. Premier Cyrankiewicz re-
portedly has shown sympathy with some aspects of the
student cause. This suggests that the regime may make
some minimal move to satisfy students' demands.
Meanwhile, calls for a thorough purge of Gomulka's
"opponents" are rising as numerous workers' meetings
are being staged by the party throughout the country.
Dismissals, especially of Jews, probably will be stepped
up.
(continued)
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There are indications of continuing unrest, despite
regime attempts to convey an impression that calm has
been restored. For example, a demonstration by some
10,000 persons reportedly took place in Katowice on
15 March during which police used dogs water cannons
and truncheons to disperse the crowd.
19 Mar 68
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Chile: President Frei has been forced to rely on
Communist support on a vital economic issue.
In negotiations for the crucial wage adjustment
bill, Frei was unable to get any cooperation from the
leftist- controlled Radical Party. The conservative
National Party, hoping to force military intervention
in the government, was equally uncooperative. As a
result, Frei turned to the Communists and received
their support in return for dropping restrictions on
private sector wages. The Communists were willing to
work with the government because they see political
benefit in cultivating the image of a responsible party.
Acting Minister of the Interior Perez Zujovic as-
sured the US Charge in Santiago that the austerity
program will be continued despite the resignation last
week of Finance Minister Raul Saez. Perez stated
that he is prepared to move against "elements bent on
disruption and disorder," including Communists and
Christian Democrats as well as perpetrators of illegal
strikes.
The armed forces are unusually restive because
their pay raise is tied to the wage adjustment bill.
There is no indication, however, of any intended inter-
vention on their part.
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Iran: The Shah is taking a firm line with the
western oil consortium and promises to do the same
with his Arab adversaries in the Persian Gulf.
Iran continues to insist that oil production must
increase over the next five years at a rate far greater
than the consortium can envisage. During meetings
in Tehran last week, consortium representatives were
told to increase production estimates or provide oil
at a discount for Iran to barter in Eastern Europe.
The Shah also wants the details of the consortium's
:internal arrangements on oil production, which he
believes discriminate against Iran.
The response to these demands must be made by
20 April. If it is negative on all points, the Iranian
government will take unilateral action against the con-
sortium. Presumably such action could include taking
over more of its assets, but details have not been re-
vealed.
Meanwhile, the Shah is furious over the formation
of a Federation of Arab Amirates that would include
;Bahrain, which Iran claims. The Shah alleges that the
.new federation will also absorb two other Iranian-
claimed islands in the Gulf.
The Shah would have preferred to keep the Bahrain
issue quiet, but obviously believes that the issue is
'being pushed to the fore. He has hinted that Iran will
protect its "legitimate rights" with force, if necessary.
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Indonesia: Student demonstrations yesterday
against the reshuffling of congress probably foreshadow
more protests when that body convenes on 21 March.
The students apparently will insist that the expected
congressional appointment of Suharto as full president
is unconstitutional. In view of the protests and the op-
position of civilian political leaders over the past weeks,
the government is likely to scale down its demands for
a five-year full presidential term and a five-year post-
ponement of elections.
*Guatemala: The twice-extended state of alert
decreed in mid-January was raised to a state of siege
yesterday. Stepped-up Communist terrorism and the
apparent kidnaping of the Archbishop of Guatemala on
Saturday probably prompted the move. Under a state of
siege, police and other law enforcement agencies are
placed under the direct control of the Ministry of De-
fense. allowing a greater latitude in operations. .1
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