CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011000020001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 2, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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O
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
C
2 April 1968
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2 April 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Brazil: Violent clashes have occurred between armed
students and security forces. (Page 4)
Poland: Gomulka may no longer be undisputed leader
of the Polish Party (Page 5)
Guatemala: President Mendez may lose his vital mili-
tary support. (Page 6)
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Jordan-Israeli Husayn's position (Page 8)
Saudi Arabia - Yemen: Saudi aid (Page 8)
Panama: No supreme court decision (Page 9)
Belgium : Elections (Page 9)
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Outbreaks of Violence in Brazil
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2 Apr 68 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Map
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*Brazil. Bitter fighting erupted last night between
security forces and groups of armed students and
extremists.
Army and marine troops were called into action in
Rio de Janeiro following a violent clash that left at
least one demonstrator dead and several police wounded.
Tanks moved into the city after Guanabara State Governor
Negrao de Lima called for federal aid. A demonstrator
was also killed in Goiania, capital of the interior state
of Goias, and violence flared in Belo Horizonte as well.
Large demonstrations occurred in many other cities
throughout the country.
Although the Costa e Silva government was the dem-
onstrators' principal target, the US came in for its
share of abuse, A Molotov cocktail reportedly was
thrown at the US AID mission in Rio and the USIS instal-
lations in Fortaleza and Porto Alegre were sacked.
Security guards have been placed around most other
US facilities.
The government has charged that Communists and
"suspect politicians" are behind the agitation. The
President is reported to have decided to prosecute
fiery opposition leader Carlos Lacerda for violating
the national security law. Many military men have
urged such action and may well fear that Lacerda can
make capital of the student crisis. There is little as-
surance that the administration's case is strong enough
to obtain a conviction, but the prosecution itself would
be certain to increase internal political turmoil as well
as to furnish Lacerda with an excellent platform for con-
tinuing his vituperative criticism.
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Political tension seems sure to build if military pres-
sure leads to even stronger government counter-reactions,
and renewed violence is possible.
(Map)
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Poland. Party boss Gomulka may have lost his
position as undisputed leader of the Polish party.
Official utterances have for more than two weeks
implied that Gomulka is a spokesman for an unspeci-
fied "party leadership." Gomulka has not contradicted
these innuendos, possibly in part because he feels that
he may yet re-emerge on top in the intraparty strug-
gle. He may also feel that an admission he is under
attack could lead to further public violence with unpre-
dictable consequences.
Gomulka's name was constantly used to justify the
stern repression of the recent unrest among Polish
youth, At the same time, regime propaganda hasig-
nored the moderate statements which were sprinkled
through Gomulka's speech on 19 March and has instead
emphasized passages about purging and punishing the
"instigators" of unrest, that is, Jews and liberals.
Gomulka seems to be playing for time. A meet-
ing of provincial party first secretaries on 26 March
reportedly was a stormy one, but Gomulka is said to
have successfully resisted pressure to convene a cen-
tral committee plenum soon. Gomulka probably be-
lieved that a plenum would only reveal the extent of
his weakened position, and result in premature calls
for shifts in the leadership.
Gomulka probably hopes to avoid a reckoning un-
til the party congress late this year. Meanwhile, he
will probably attempt to prevent his own supporters
from being swept out in a purge of the party's extrem-
ist elements. At the moment, however, it is not clear
that he will. be able to reassert his control of the party,
especially if there should be renewed public violence.
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Guatemala: The shifts in the army hierarchy
last week may cost President Mendez his vital mili-
tary supports
The commanders of civilian counterinsurgency
groups in the Department of Zacapa and officers of
the army brigade there have already begun to plot a
coup against the President.
The plotters apparently interpret the changes in
the army leadership as a move to end the army's sup-
port of extralegal counterinsurgency operations and
rely on the judicial system to cope with the Commu-
nist terrorist threat. This interpretation may have
been strengthened by a country-wide radio-TV broad-
cast by the new defense minister calling on all Guate-
malans to lay down their arms.
If Mendez eliminates extralegal counterterrorist
programs or if the Communists are able to mount an-
other successful terrorist campaign, the plotters are
likely to find increased support among other military
and rightist civilian elem nt
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Jordan-Israel:
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Although :Israeli officials are apparently
divided on their policy toward Jordan, the inevitable
continuance of terrorist activities will almost certainly
provoke further Israeli reprisals. There is continu-
ing debate in Israel itself, however, over what form
reprisals should take.
Saudi Arabia - Yemen: The Saudis are fed up with
continued bickering ong Yemeni royalist leaders
The
Saudis are still extremely nervous about the Soviet
presence in Yemen, and this action is essentially a
shock tactic to pressure the royalists to organize more
effectively. The Saudis say they are not irrevocably
tied to the present royal family in Yemen and want the
Yemenis to make their own choice of a leader that all
will agree to follo
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'Panama: The Supreme Court reconvened yesterday
but did not render a decision on issues relating to the
impeachment of President Robles. There are still no
indications as to whether the court intends to rule with-
in the next few days or to drag out the proceedings--
possibly until the elections on 12 May--and thereby
allow the de facto Robles government to stay in power.
While the court is deliberating, Arnulfo Arias' National
Union will probably try to keep pressure on Robles and
the National Guard through demonstrations and disorders.
Belgium- Last Sunday's national elections failed
to bring a solution of the country's divisive linguistic
dispute any closer, and the formation of a stable gov-
ernment will be difficult. The three major parties lost
and the two small extremist parties registered some
gains, but not enough to make them a factor in negoti-
ations for a new coalition. Some Belgian political ob-
servers are already predicting another election within
a few months.
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
The United States Intelligence Board on 1 April 1968
approved the following national intelligence estimate:
NIE 32-68 "Pakistan: Internal Developments and
Foreign Outlook"
2 Apr 68
Apgr r d Foti
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Top Secret
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