CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011100110001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 10, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
STATE review(s) completed.
Secret
40,
10 May 1968
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 SECRET
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No. 0152/68
10 May 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report (Page 1)
Communist China: The relative standing of impor-
tant officials may be shifting. (Page 3)
Laos: The Communists are closing in on the govern-
ment base at Na Khang. (Page 5)
Burma: Differences within the Kachin army are
reaching a critical stage. (Page 6)
Ecuador: Anti-US former president Arosemena busy
n hte campaign for national elections. (Page 7)
Brazil-USSR: A Soviet space support ship is de-
tained Page 9)
Venezuela: Counterinsurgency forces score more
successes against guerrillas in the west. (Page 10)
Uruguay: Resignation of cabinet minister highlights
political instability. (Page 11)
Bolivia: Reduction of strength will lessen army's
ability to counter internal disorders. (Page 12)
West Germany: Berlin access (Page 13)
Panama: Campaign wind-up (Page 13)
Sudan: Election results (Page 13)
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Saigon city limits
Police precinct
Al 00W I 7fnm pk,irr TK'&i 0 1Mile
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C South Vietnam:. Saigon city and the III Corps
area continue to bear the brunt of the Communist
offensive.
Within the capital, heavy fighting spread on
8-9 May from the troubled 6th and 8th precincts in
southwestern Cholon to the 4th precinct on the city's
southeastern flank. An estimated enemy battalion
reportedly has set up rockets in the latter area
within easy striking distance of the metropolitan
sector.
Meanwhile, enemy captives say that additional
Communist units hope to enter the city and inten-
sify the fighting. One focus of the infiltration
reputedly is the Phu Tho race track area in the 5th
precinct where elements of the Viet Cong 9th Div-
ision plan to push in. Allied forces are still
said to control all the major arteries leading into
Saigon, while roads within the city are generally
open to traffic except in curfew sectors.
Elsewhere in the III Corps area, Communist
forces are keeping up a high level of rocket and
mortar attacks against widely separated urban cen-
ters and military bases.
Prisoners continue to re-
flect plans to sustain the offensive. It would
probably again take the form of widespread mortar
and rocket barrages together with selective ground
attacks.
The refugee situation in South Vietnam poses
serious problems for the allies. Just prior to
the current enemy offensive, the number of refugees
residing in government camps or other temporary
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[quarters had reached some 1.5 million, about eight
percent of the population. Nearly a third of these
were dislocated by the Tet attacks or by subsequent
unrest.
Although the government has made some progress
in the issuance of relief and reconstruction allow-
ances and materials to refugee elements, reports in-
dicate a reluctance by many people to engage in re-
pair activities. Some of the hesitation is ascribed
to a lack of confidence in the vernment's ability
to Protect rebuilt pro ert .
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Communist China: The relative standing of
important officials in Peking may be shifting, but
apparently no further purges have taken place since
late March.
Several key military and government officials
who have been criticized in wall posters since
then--mostly subordinates of Chou En-lai--attended
major receptions held in Peking on 1 and 8May,
apparently still in good standing.
An analysis of the name list of officials at
the 8 May event indicates that the relative status
of some groups may be changing, however. Contrary
to past practice key military figures took preced-
ence over ordinary politburo members, who are nor-
mally listed ahead of nonpolitburo military men.
The new chief of staff, the air force chief, and
several other military and police officials were
listed before ordinary politburo members and imme-
diately after the politburo standing committee and
the Cultural Revolution group.
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NORTHERN LAOS
Q Communist-controlted
territory
1-] Contested territory
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Laos.: [The Communists are.,closing in on the
government base atNa Khang.]
Government troops were driven out of three
outlying defensive. positions a few miles east of
Na Khang on 8 May and a number of other positions
have. changed hands in recent days. Na Khang itself
has come under some sporadic mortar fire and the
enemy is clearly trying to get-close enough to pre-
vent.use of the airstrip on which the base is to-
tally dependent. Similar tactics were employed in
the Communists' capture of Phou Pha Thi and Nam
Bac earlier.this year .1
The fact that the Communists are pressing
their attacks in the face of greatly increased US
air strikes indicates that the enemy is prepared
to suffer heavy losses to take the base., If the
Communists intend to launch an all-out ground as-
sault against Na Khang, they will probably do so
in the next two or three weeks, before heavy rains
wash out roads and trails in the area.]
EThe Communists have temporarily occupied Na
Khang during past dry season offensives, but in
the wake of other setbacks in north Laos its loss
this year would be a severe blow to government op-
erations in the northeast.
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Burma: (Differences within the leadership of
the Kaolin Independence Army (KIA) apparently are
reaching a critical stage.]
At issue is Kachin cooperation with the Chinese
Communists in support of pro-Peking White Flag Com-
munists. The Chinese, who since last fall have
made overtures to the KIA, appear to have made some
progress. One important objective in these contacts
is to open a reliable logistic route through Kachin
territory to White Flag areas in central Burma.]
In order to offset pro-Peking influences, anti-
Communist elements within the KIA have attempted
to bring about the return of Zaw Seng, an influen-
tial KIA leader who has been in Thailand seeking
arms and equipment from sympathetic Thai elements.
The Kachin insurgent movement, whose main ob-
jective is an autonomous state, has been essentially
anti-Communist and anti-Chinese. These factors
might favor expulsion of its pro-Peking elements.?
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Ecuador: Anti-US former president Carlos
Julio Arosemena has maneuvered himself to the fore-
front of the tense campaign for national elections
on 2 June.
Arosemena's election as senator has been vir-
tually assured by virtue of his naming leading
presidential candidate Jose Maria Velasco to head
the Guayas Province slate. This designation prob-
ably was Arosemena's goal last January when he de-
clared his support for Velasco, whom he overthrew
and replaced as president in 1961.
Recent gains by center-left candidate Andres
Cordoba reduce prospects for a sweeping election
victory or even a clear majority for either Velasco
or conservative candidate Camilo Ponce. If Velasco
wins under such circumstances, Arosemena's demon-
strated skill in influencing a legislature would
be a major advantage.
Arosemena, however, is an extremist who is
anathema to the military, which overthrew him in
1963. His return to a position of power might
lead them to political intervention, which they
have avoided since the downfall of the military
junta in 1966.
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Brazil-USSR: he Soviet space support ship
Kegostrov is being detained by Brazil in the port
of Santos-
The Kegostrov is an unarmed converted timber
carrier equipped with numerous antennae for track-
ing spacecraft in orbit. When spotted by the
Brazilians on 3 May, the ship reported difficulty
with its fresh water system. The Brazilians be-
lieve that the Kegostrov had earlier intruded into
Brazilian waters in the vicinity of Trindade Island.
They are apparently determined to conduct a thorough
investigation.]
Brazil has been increasingly concerned with
the operation of Soviet ships, particularly fish-
ing trawlers, in what it considers its territorial
waters. The Soviets are attempting to get prompt
release of the Kegostrov, but may soft-pedal the
issue, at least initially, hoping that it can be
resolved without adversely affecting their effort
to cultivate good relations with the Brazilians.
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Venezuela: [Counterinsurgency forces are reg-
istering additional successes against guerrilla
bands in western Venezuela .j
[Government officials have confirmed that army
ranger units in the western state of Yaracuy on 4
May killed one guerrilla and captured three. The
guerrillas were members of Douglas Bravo's dissi-
dent :.rmed Forces of National Liberation. In sev-
eral encounters since 17 April, army forces claimed
to have killed 15 guerrillas, and wounded or cap-
tured seven. Venezuelan military officials believe
that no more than 45 members of Bravo's band remain
in western Venezuela
~In eastern Venezuela, the Castro-supported
Movement of the Revolutionary Left (MIR) has been
moderately active. Five terrorists attacked a po-
lice headquarters in Anzoategui State and killed
one police agent, but two terrorists were captured
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Uri uquay: The unexpected resignation of Inte-
rior Minister Legnani highlights the political in-
stability in Uruguay."
Legnani had acted as President Pacheco's po-
litical emissary in the negotiations for the cabi-
net reorganization last week and was one of its
strongest members. He has long complained, however,
about bickering in the government and lack of sup-
port for his firm policies in dealing with labor
agitation. In addition, he is apparently suffering
from physical exhaustion.
His replacement, Eduardo Jimenez de Arechaga,
is a skilled international lawyer but lacks the
political background needed by an interior minister
in dealing with the police and local political fig-
ures.
Another cabinet problem concerns Finance Min-
ister Cesar Charlone, who is under attack by Com-
munists and other opposition elements within the
legislature because of his identification with the
unpopular economic austerity program. Pacheco re-
portedly will defend him by all constitutional
means and has no intention of changing the program
even if Charlone is ousted from the cabinet.
Outside the cabinet, Central Bank President
Enrique Iglesias has confided to the US Embassy
that he is deeply troubled by recent political
developments and their impact on stabilization
programs. Iglesias, a key figure in economic
planning, will resi n if current economic oli-
cies are droppe.
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Bolivia; A planned reduction in strength will
seriously pair the army's ability to counter in-
ternal disorders.
About 8,200 conscripts--half the army's total
strength--are scheduled to be discharged this month.
This will drastically reduce the country's trained
security force at a time when it is faced with in-
creasing labor demands and serious financial prob-
lems. The army plans to recruit 6,000 men in June,
but this will still leave only a small nucleus of
trained personnel.
The mass discharge follows the revolt last
month of conscripts of the US-trained 2nd Ranger
Battalion against the army's decisicn to extend
their tour of duty. The Bolivian high command had
reached agreement with the US that the tour of duty
for US-trained units would be lengthened to two
years, but failed to inform the troops of this.
When attempts to convert the rangers into an elite
volunteer counterinsurgency unit failed, it was
decided to release them as well as all other con-
scripts who had served at least one year.
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West Germany: Despite.East Germany's harass-
ment of West German access to Berlin, Bonn officials
have decided to avoid provocative countermeasures
which could increase tensions. A number of mild
diplomatic moves are being considered by the Allied
powers and West Germany, however, including a pos-
sible approach to Moscow. Before deciding how to
proceed, Bonn is studying a statement of the Soviet
ambassador to East Berlin, Abrasimov. Abrasimov
hinted to Ambassador McGhee on 3 May that if West
Germany publicly announced a curtailment of certain
of its activities in West Berlin, the Soviets would
prevail upon the East Germans to re i -
cess restrictions.
Panama: [With only two days left in the cam-
paign, Arnulfo Arias is playing up government plans
to perpetrate fraud in the elections and is calling
for such a massive turnout of his National Union
(NU) followers that vote-rigging will be impossible.
Meanwhile, the government is backing away from a
scheme that would have disqualified NU deputies
from re-election because they participated in the
attempt to impeach President Robles. The charges
are not being pressed immediately, apparently be-
cause government leaders realize their plan was
framed in rather shaky legal terms
Sudan: Moderate forces suffered a heavy de-
feat in the general elections concluded this week
in Khartoum. Former prime minister Sadiq al-Mahdi,
leader of the moderate group, lost his own seat in
the Constituent Assembly, and the left-leaning co-
alition group which led the previous government won
an easy victory. When a new government is formed,
it almost certainly will continue the country's re-
cent trend toward closer ties with Moscow and align-
ment with r4dical Arab nationalist policies. I
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Secret
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