CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011300060001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 31, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
STATE review(s) completed.
Secret
45
31 May 1968
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No. 0170/68
31 May 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
France: Opposition leaders label De Gaulle's in-
itiative "a call to civil war." (Page 3)
Czechoslovakia: Dubcek apparently attempting to sat-
isfy liberals while mollifying conservatives and
USSR. (Page 4)
Italy: Socialists' withdrawal from coalition poses
problems for the formation of a new government. (Page 6)
India-Pakistan: Talks on distribution of Ganges waters
have ended in failure. (Page 7)
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Panama: Arias president-elect (Page 10)
Honduras: Opposition party collapsing (Page 10)
Senegal: General strike (Page 11)
South Africa: Naval role (Page 11)
Turkey: Approaching elections (Page 12)
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A
'Da Nang
Z ~r N.Uamr;Zed Zone
Dong Ha
Khe SanhHue
?QLtang Ngai
PHNOM
PENH,
Ban Me
Thuot
\,. Bien Hoa
,1 Air Base
s iGoi
Can Tho
SOUTH VIETNAM
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[South Vietnam: Heavy fighting erupted in the
.Khe Sanh area when elements of the North Vietnamese
Army (NVA) 304th Division launched two strong ground
attacks coordinated with artillery and mortar fire.
The attacks spanned a 16-hour period on 28-29
May and were conducted by a battalion-size force
against US Marine positions less than three miles
southeast of the Khe Sanh base. The Communists
lost 230 killed while US forces suffered 13 dead.
Ground contact continued north of the Dong Ha
complex. A North Vietnamese prisoner has reported
that the Communists are infiltrating battalion-size
replacement groups across the Demilitarized Zone to
the Dong Ha sector. Once there, the captive stated,
the NVA 320th Division is sending these groups di-
rectly into battle as combat units.
There were more Communist mortar and rocket
attacks against US positions in western Kontum
Province on 29-30 May. An enemy force assaulted a
US company in night defensive positions some five
miles west of Ben Het on 30 May. The four-hour bat-
tle resulted in an estimated 30 Communists killed.
Enemy remnants may be attempting to withdraw
from Saigon's outskirts. Ground contact has de-
creased, but Communist gunners launched light, har-
assing rocket attacks against the capital as well
as nearby Bien Hoa Air Base and Long Binh.
On the political front, President Thieu says
he intends that his new minister of interior, Gen-
eral Tran Thien Khiem, will play a significant role
in the cabinet, second only to Prime Minister Huong.
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Khiem's normal ministerial responsibilities,
in addition to supervision of the civil security
apparatus, give him jurisdiction over the province
chiefs in their administrative capacity. His as-
sertion of this responsibility with any force will
make him a power in local affairs that will erode
the influence of the military corps commanders.
I
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I France: Opposition leaders have labeled De
Gaullee's latest initiative as a call to civil war
and violent confrontations may ensue.
De Gaulle, by refusing to resign or to dismiss
Premier Pompidou--and instead calling for new parl-
iamentary elections--has dangerously polarized the
political forces of the country.. Francois Mitterrand,
head of the Federation of the Left, expressed the
dominant response of all opposition groups by pro-
claiming that the parties of the left were prepared
to answer what he viewed as De Gaulle's "call to
civil war."
Despite their initial negative reaction, the
leadership of the left, which has played a moder-
ating role throughout the crisis, would probably
like to accept the option of attempting the peace-
ful road to power that De Gaulle has offered them
by announcing new elections. Events of the past
three weeks, however, indicate that leftist leaders
have been swept along by the radical temper of the
rank and file. It is highly questionable whether
these leaders can reassert control at this point and
rally their followers for a legal and electoral
assault on the Gaullist regime at the ballot box.
But unless this is done, the prospect is for more
violence.
The government has resorted to the tactic of
organizing counterdemonstrations, and the impres-
sive turn-out of over 300,000 in yesterday's Paris
march demonstrates that the government still has
the support of a large segment of the French public.
Students and workers are likely to continue to dem-
onstrate, however, and the bloody clashes that
might ensue between these groups and Gaullist sup-
porters pose yet another problem of order for
France's beleaguered police and internal security
forces.
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[Czechoslovakia: Dubcek's speech at the opening
of the central committee plenum apparently was an
attempt to satisfy the party's liberals while mol-
lifying the party's conservative wing and the Soviet
Union.
Dubcek responded favorably to the major demand
of the liberals by recommending that an extraordin-
ary party congress be convened in September and that
a new central committee be elected. The liberals
doubtless were also pleased that former party leader
Novotny, the most obvious member of the conservative
faction, was ousted from the central committee.
Novotny and six others, none of whom were on the
central committee or are present-day cronies of
Novotny, were also suspended from membership in the
party until their roles in the political trials of
the 1950 s are clarified.
In a probable effort to forestall further in-
tensification of the factional struggle, however,
Dubcek again implicitly warned against witch hunts,
rejecting attempts to discredit the party as a whole
and to create an "atmosphere of hysteria." He once
more appealed for party unity, and emphasized that
preparations for the congress must be thorough.
Dubcek recommended that a commission be estab-
lished to prepare an agenda for the congress, and
personally recommended that eight basic matters be
included. In discussing these eight points, Dubcek
apparently was seeking to gain further popular sup-
port as well as to allay Soviet fears concerning
developments in Czechoslovakia. He supported the
establishment of worker groups in enterprises, re-
jected efforts to form an "opposition," praised the
People's Militia and rejected efforts to weaken it,
and promised to fulfill all international obligations
in the "spirit of proletarian internationalism."
(continued)
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. [Dubcek also attempted to mollify Moscow by em-
phasizing repeatedly that anti-Communist and anti-
socialist tendencies had to be decisively and pub-
licly exposed and their propagators "isolated."
Dubcek reaffirmed that the party will carry out the
"revival process" begun in January, but sought to
demonstrate that this will strengthen rather than
weaken Communism. In a statement clearly directed
toward the conservatives and Moscow, Dubcek stressed
that in accomplishing its goals the party must guar-
antee not to permit a return to conditions existing
before January 1968 nor, particularly, to those ex-
isting prior to the Communist in February 1948.
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[Italy: The withdrawal of the Unified Socialist
Party PSU) from the government coalition poses prob-
lems for the formation of a successor government.
The directorate of the PSU on Wednesday issued
a statement--subject to approval on 31 May by its cen-
tral committee--that it did not believe "conditions
exist at present for a coalition government with the
Christian Democrats." The Socialists say the Chris-
tian Democrats would have to support far-reaching re-
forms before the PSU would consider rejoining the co-
alition.
The PSU believes its losses to the far left in
the parliamentary elections on 19-20 May were caused
by the party's failure, as part of the outgoing coali-
tion, to make promised university and other reforms.
The events in France have undoubtedly strengthened
Socialist resolve to secure a more forward-looking
image.
Some Socialist leaders have called for a one-
party Christian Democratic government in order to
test that party's "political will" to move ahead on
reforms, perhaps during a transitional period until
the PSU congress next fall. Several Christian Demo-
cratic leaders, however, have said they would not
participate in a one-party government.
Without Socialist support, the Christian Demo-
crats would have to ally themselves with either the
Neo-Fascist or Communist parties in order to have a
majority. Such a move Would split the Christian Dem-
ocratic Party itself.
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India-Pakistan: Two weeks of talks between the
two countries on the distribution of Ganges River
waters flowing from India into East Pakistan have
ended in almost total failure.
During the discussions, which concluded on 26
May, neither budged from its widely divergent esti-
mate of water requirements by the early 1970s, when
India is scheduled to complete the Farakka Barrage,
a diversionary dam across the Ganges.
Further talks are possible, and earlier mutual
offers of technical inspection tours of relevant
projects in each country--tentatively set for June
or July--remain open. The atmosphere of distrust
that emerged during the recent sessions will make
progress difficult, however. Indian officials re-
jected as premature Pakistani suggestions that talks
be shifted to the political level or that the dis-
pute be mediated. Some senior Indians say privately
that mediation by the World Bank, which in 1960 re-
solved a similar dispute over the distribution of
Indus waters in the India - West Pakistan border
area, is unacceptable to New Delhi.
The failure of the discussions on eastern
waters may hinder the resolution of other outstand-
ing problems. Indian officials claim, for example,
that the Pakistani foreign secretary told the Indian
high commissioner in Rawalpindi that progress on is-
sues such as the resumption of air services between
the two countries will depend on progress in the
water discussions.
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NOTES
Panama: Opposition leader Arnulfo Arias yes-
ter ay accepted his credentials as president-elect
after the National Elections Board certified his
victory by over 40,000 votes. Government candidate
Samudio publicly rejected the board's action, but
stated that he would contest it by legal means rather
than force. Continued National Guard backing for
Arias and expected defections from Samudio's ranks,
however, are likely to undermine any initiatives by
the government-controlled Electoral Tribunal to up-
Honduras: The collapse of discipline in the
opposition Liberal Party has greatly weakened the
two-party system in Honduras. Only two of the 25
Liberal deputies followed party orders to boycott
the opening session of congress on 28 May. The
other 23 either attended or indicated that they
would take their seats within a few days.
Liberal leaders had hoped that by boycotting
congressional and municipal posts they could force
President Lopez to give them more voice in the
government and perhaps dismiss their archenemy,
Minister of the Presidency Ricardo Zuniga. Their
inability to maintain party discipline, however,
may well convince Lopez and the ruling Nationalists
that moves toward conciliation of the Liberals are
unnecessary.
(continued)
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Senegal: A general strike by the National
Union of Senegalese Workers was scheduled to begin
in Dakar early today. The strike is being called
to support University of Dakar students who have
been demonstrating against government educational
policies. The union, which recently has been more
active in opposing the government's failure to meet
its demands, took the decision following the use of
force against the students. The Senegalese Govern-
ment has placed army units in key positions around
Dakar but may not suppress the strike unless vin-
lence breaks out.
South Africa: South Africa continues to seek
a greater role in the naval defense of the southern
hemisphere. The minister of defense recently an-
nounced that service-level consultations with other
countries have led to recommendations for coopera-
tion which presumably aim at giving South Africa
larger responsibilities for defending the route
around the Cape of Good Hope. The minister did not
identify the other countries involved, but the US
Embassy speculates they probably included Argentina
an
d Portugal and possibly Australia and Brazil.
F_ I
(continued)
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Turkey: The tempo of the campaign for Senate
and municipal elections on Sunday has picked up
slightly, but the people generally remain apathetic
and believe there have been too many elections in
recent years. The ruling Justice Party is expected
to get about 60 percent of the vote, the major op-
position Republican Peoples Party about 30 percent,
and the leftist Turkish Labor Party about five per-
cent, a slight increase over 1965-.
Prime Minister Demirel apparently plans a re-
shuffle of his cabinet following the elections,
but one that would not lead to any basic shifts in
Turkey's foreign or domestic policy. Instead, the
changes would be designed primarily to improve the
public image of the government by removing allegedly
extreme rightists and religious reactionaries.
Moderate Foreign Minister Caglayangil, the main
architect of Turkey's expanding foreign relation
robably would retain his cabinet post.
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