CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011500050001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 25, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
Secret
25 June 1968
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No. 0191/68
25 June 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
France: Gaullists are anxious to avoid overconfi-
ef nce. (Page 2)
Japan: The government continues to equivocate over
Nonproliferation treaty. (Page 4)
Ecuador: There is growing nervousness over the out-
come of postelection political maneuvering. (Page 5)
USSR: Submarines in Mediterranean (Page 7)
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Tanzania-USSR: Air defense assistance (Page 7)
Warsaw Pact: Military exercise (Page 8)
Czechoslovakia: More dismissals (Page 8)
Dominican Republic: Student violence (Page 8)
UK: Labor troubles (Page 9)
Brazil: Student disorders (Page 9)
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[South Vietnam: Ground fighting was at a lull
in much of the country except for scattered contacts
around Saigon and an overnight battle in the delta.
On 23 June, an enemy battalion attacked a US
unit conducting operations about 20 miles southwest
of the capital in Long An Province. Seven miles
north of Saigon, South Vietnamese troops fought a
five-hour engagement, apparently with an element of
the North Vietnamese 88th Regiment. This may indi-
cate that the 88th has begun to move closer to the
city.
Lack of contact with enemy units in western
Kontum Province in the highlands suggests that Com-
munist forces have pulled away from earlier threat-
ened targets. Recently captured documents show
that allied operations have thwarted at least one
planned enemy attack in the area.
Prime Minister Huong may be taking steps to
free political prisoners such as former presidential
peace candidate Truong Dinh Dzu and militant monk
Tri Quang. Huong has ordered all cities and prov-
inces to establish special committees to examine
all cases of detention which have not yet been "re-
solved." The order provides that such suspects may
be provisionally released under a guarantee by local
authorities.
Huang indicated upon assuming office that he
would look into the charges against Dzu, Quang, and
others picked up during Tet with a view either to
freeing them or prosecuting them. President Thieu
and some of the military, however, fear that these
men could be used by the new alliance formed by the
Communists.
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France: The Gaullists and their allies, the
Independent Republicans, are anxious to avoid the
overconfidence which cost them seats after a favor-
able first-round election showing in 1967.
On Sunday, the two parties won 43.6 percent of
the vote--a six percent increase over 1967--but they
want to ensure that the voters turn out in large
numbers for the runoff on 30 June. Information Min-
ister Yves Guena has warned that it would be a
"fatal error" to regard the elections as virtually
settled.
The Gaullists may have to contend with the ten-
dency of some first-round Gaullist supporters to
shift their votes in the second round. A number of
these voters want a Gaullist majority, but not a
landslide.
The center, a declining force in French poli-
tics since its poor showing in 1967, dropped an ad-
ditional 2 1/2 percent. The center's main chance
for increasing its representation was to run strongly
on the first ballot and thereby hope to profit from
withdrawals before the second round.
Although both the Communists and the Federation
of the Left dropped over two percent from their 1967
showings, they are expected to recoup some of their
losses on the second round when they unite behind a
single candidate in each constituency.
The failure of the federation to elect any can-
didates on the first round is not necessarily fatal,
as the grouping in 1967 elected only one candidate
on the first round, but won an additional 116 seats
on the second ballot. Abstentions by extreme left
voters who are unwilling to support either a "bour-
geois" Communist or federation candidate, however,
could cut into the left's vote.
(continued)
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While the Gaullists and their allies won an un-
precedented 142 seats on the first ballot, only 12
opposition candidates managed to obtain the 50 per-
cent of the vote necessary for election in the first
round. All withdrawals--usually the result of a
complex bargaining process among parties--must be
decid d by midnight tonight.
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Japan: Tokyo continues to equivocate over
the nonproliferation treaty.]
[The government's announcement on 22 June that
it will not join the US, the UK, and the USSR in
signing the treaty on 1 July reflects continuing
basic reservations and foreshadows further foot-
dragging i.
[Upper house elections on 7 July are the imme-
diate reason for the government's attitude. In the
heat of the election campaign the Sato administra-
tion is trying to avoid the impression that it is
subservient to the US. Signing the treaty would
give a windfall to the opposition parties, all but
one of which are opposed to the treaty as it stands
Fundamentally, however, the Japanese are re-
luctant to surrender their option to develop nuclear
weapons and fear that the treaty will restrict their
access to nonmilitary nuclear technology. Even
though Japan voted for the UN resolution on the
treaty, Tokyo wants to retain the right to develop
nonmilitary nuclear explosive devices, an option
which the treaty specifically prohibits. More gen-
erally, Japan's leaders remain deeply concerned
over the long-term threat posed by Communist China's
growing nuclear power.
,Japan's early adherence to the treaty now seems
unlikely, although Tokyo will be influenced to a
considerable extent by the attitudes of other coun-
tries toward the treaty.)
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Ecuador: There is growing nervousness over the
outcome of postelection political maneuvering.
Partisans of unofficial president-elect Velasco
staged a demonstration last week which forced the
Supreme Electoral Tribunal to resume its official
tally of the presidential election of 2 June. The
count had stopped on 18 June after the discovery of
voting irregularities.
Four tribunal members who represent two of the
defeated presidential candidates have now resigned.
This may be an attempt by the opposition to post-
pone certification of the election results until after
the new congress convenes in early August. The new
congress will be dominated by Velasco's opponents and
conceivably could deny him the victory.
Velasco has frequently threatened revolution if
he is "cheated," and has called on the military to
support him. On their side, however, military com-
manders are frequently reported to be concerned by
the turbulence which has followed Velasco's re-emer-
gence in Ecuadorean politics.
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USSR: The Soviets are extending the duration
of patrols of diesel-powered submarines in the Medi-
terranean. Three R-class units now returning to the
Northern Fleet spent five months in the Mediterranean.
Three other diesel submarines have been there for
over three months. The Soviets have been able to
stretch out their normal patrol period of two months
by making port visits to Egypt and Yugoslavia for
crew rest and minor repairs. As a result, fewer
submarines are needed to meet the requirements of the
Mediterranean sauadrrn_
Tanzania-USSR: A Soviet Air Force team arrived
recently in Tanzania to survey existing air facil-
ities in response to Dar es Salaam's request last
month for air defense assistance. Tanzania's small
air force is now being trained and equipped by Canada
for transportation and tactical reconnaissance mis-
sions. Dar es Salaam is determined, however, to ac-
quire modern jet fighters and discussed its require-
ments with Peking as well as Moscow over a year ago.,
1
(continued)
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Warsaw Pact: Some Soviet combat troops have
entered Czechoslovakia to participate in the command-
staff exercise that began on 20 June. Prague an-
nounced on 23 June that a Soviet tank unit has taken
up a position in the western part of the country.
According to another Prague announcement, motorized
rifle units were to move into Czechoslovakia over
the weekend. The statement did not indicate the
nationality of the rifle units.
Polish, Czechoslovak, East German, and Hungarian
forces are also involved in the Pact exercise, which
reportedly will be completed by the end of the month.
Czechoslovakia: The dismissal last week of
four deputy ministers of the interior is further
evidence that Dubcek intends to remove those appointees
of ex-party boss Novotny who will not adjust to the
new situation as well as officials compromised by a
"Stalinist past." Interior Minister Pavel announced
earlier that 250 employees of the ministry had been
dismissed because they had been involved in past il-
legalities. He added that other officials "still do
not want to understand the changes in the present wave
of democratization." Presumably some of those dis-
missed on the 21st were among the latter.
Dominican Republic: More violence could occur
at Santo Domingo's Autonomous University. Two stu-
dents were killed when long-simmering tensions be-
tween Communist and Social Christian students erupted
into a pitched battle on 21 June. The passive re-
action by the leftist university administration to
the disturbances could produce pressure on President
Bala uer to intervene if further violence develo s.
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UK: [The current slowdown by railway workers,
combined with the strikes already under way by BOAC
pilots and auto workers in some plants, could develop
into a threat to Britain's economic recovery program.
If the present labor troubles spread and are pro-
longed, they would lead to a widening of the trade
deficit by reducing Britain's exports, further eroding
confidence in the economy and possibly bringing on
another sterling crisis before the full benefits of
the devaluation and other economic measures are felt.
The railway dispute may be short-lived, however, as
the union has a tradition of trying to avoid lengthy
slowd ns.
Brazil: Student disorders have subsided in
Rio de Janeiro, but tension continues there and in
other key cities. Authorities have suspended classes
at the Federal University of Rio, but students re-
portedly plan new demonstrations today and tomorrow.
Their recent efforts have been well organized, and
they now may be encouraged by the government's fail-
ure to call in military forces and by what they regard
as growing. popular support. The police have been
ineffective in their efforts to apprehend leading
agitators,
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