CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011500110001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 2, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
STATE review(s) completed.
Secret
51
2 July 1968
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No. 0197/68
2 July 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Communist China: Signs of instability and violence
are again increasing. (Page 3)
Communist China - Hong Kong: Seizure of Hong Kong
fishermen may increase tension. (Page 5)
Poland: The regime is concerned over the impact
abroad of its internal party struggle. (Page 8)
Central America: Nicaragua threatens to break up
Central American Common Market. (Page 9)
Argentina: Demonstrations (Page 10)
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[Vietnam:
South Vietnam: Communist-initiated military
activity appears to be at its lowest level so far
this year.
Most recent ground actions have developed as
a result of stepped-up allied operations designed
to keep Communist forces off balance. There is no
evidence at this time that the lull in enemy activ-
ity is a deliberate Communist tactic designed to
facilitate the Paris talks. As in earlier periods
of reduced military activity, Communist forces ap-
pear to be engaged in preparations for new offensive
operations. The available evidence also suggests
that the current lull has been induced primarily by
vigorous allied countermeasures.
There are further signs that Communist plans
for another round of attacks on Saigon have been de-
layed. A Viet Cong rallier who defected near Saigon
on 26 June said during preliminary interrogations
that the so-called "second general offensive" against
the capital was to have begun on 28 June but had
been delayed for unspecified reasons. This informa-
tion is in line with other recent reports, including
a captured document, suggesting such an effort would
be put off until as late as August.
North Vietnam: Hanoi has taken pains to coun-
ter recent reports of problems in its relations with
Communist China. An editorial in the party press
on 1 July commemorates the founding of the Chinese
Communist Party with lavish praise for the "intimate"
and "lasting" ties between the two countries. De-
spite North Vietnam's well-documented(distaste for
the Cultural Revolution, the editorial wishes Peking
well in this endeavor and pays a special tribute to
Chairman Mao. The editorial seems to be a special
effort to keep up a public appearance of Sino -
North Vietnamese solidarity despite the damage that
may have been done to relations in the past few
2 Jul 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Communist China: Signs of instability and
violence are again increasing.
Clashes between rival Red Guard organizations
have grown more frequent and severe in several
areas. They appear to be particularly virulent in
Canton and adjacent areas of Kwangtung Province,
and in the southern province of Kwangsi through
which the rail line to North Vietnam runs. Much of
this trouble probably can be attributed to inflam-
matory propaganda from Peking; this has grown in-
creasingly militant since mid-March, although the
moderate policies accepted in 1967 also continue to
be endorsed formally.
Clashes and other indications of instability
have not been confined to the relatively few prov-
inces where no "revolutionary committees," the new
provincial governing organs, have been set up. Sev-
eral supposedly "pacified" provinces--Kwangtung is
a prominent example--have been beset by continuing
problems.
On 20 June, the nationally distributed Shanghai
journal Wen Wai Pao stated that splits among leading
officials, between "old and new" cadres, and among
mass organizations have rendered many provincial
revolutionary committees incapable of "effectively
grasping the struggle against enemies." This theme
has been echoed by editorials in Anhwei, Kiangsu,
and Inner Mongolia. In Shanghai itself, posters
have appeared attacking the municipal revolutionary
committee. Gin Hangchow, Chekiang, members of the
municipal revolutionary committee reportedly have
been involved in brawling
A renewed emphasis in national propaganda on a
"rectification through struggle" of Communist Party
members has contributed to the growing tensions.
The precise target of this campaign is not clear,
2 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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but a recent Shanghai broadcast suggests that the
intended victims may be cadres holding leadership
positions in mass organizations.
New poster attacks on leading officials in Pe-
king are a further indication of continuing insta-
bility and tension. Diplomats in the capital have
reported continuing attacks on Nieh Jung-chen, a
politburo member and advanced weapons coordinator,
as well as on lesser central and provincial leaders.
Other posters denounce alleged attacks on Chou En-
lai and Peking city boss Hsieh Fu-chih. Still
others call for defense of Mao's wife, Chiang Ching,
who has played an increasingly prominent role in the
past.several months.-1
Central Intellicence Bulletin
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Communist China - Hong Kong: The seizure of
Hong Kong fishermen on 30 June may incr ase tension
between the colony and Communist China J
Two Chinese Communist motorized junks entered
British waters in Hong Kong's Deep Bay and towed
away 14 fishing sampans with approximately 50 persons
aboard. A Chinese gunboat stood 1.25 miles offshore
during the operation. A Hong Kong police launch
challenged the junks, but they refused to stop and
warned the launch to stay clearA
EAlmost all fishermen in Hong Kong belong to Chi-
nese Communist fishing communes in order to qualify
for fishing rights in waters claimed by China. The
Chinese action may have been a result of infraction
of commune rules by Hong Kong fishermen. It could
also be in retaliation for assistance probably given
by the fishermen to illegal emigrants from China.
Hong Kong officials have reportedly decided to
take irm action against further "abductions." The
chief of the Hong Kong marine police has ordered
eight patrol boats into Deep Bay, and the colony's
newspapers report that the British will open fire if
any future attempts are made to seize fishing sampans
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Poland: The regime is showing concern over the
impact of the internal party struggle on its image
abroad, especially in the US.
On 28 June in Washington, Poland's Ambassador
Michalowski expressed Warsaw's anxieties over pos-
sible new pressures in the US this year to divest
Poland of its most-favored-nation trade status. He
feared that such action would be interpreted by the
regime to be the result of "Jewish pressures," and
would provoke a "backlash." Other recent evidence
also indicates that Gomulka is increasingly concerned
by Poland's deteriorated image abroad and that he
may be using the issue against the party's hard-liners.
Michalowski revealed that the regime estimates
some 3,000 to 5,000 Polish Jews may wish to leave
the country in line with Gomulka's standing offer
to permit Jewish emigration to Israel. He said the
authorities continue to facilitate such departures,
except in the cases of a "few high-ranking officials."
This is borne out by recent reports from the Dutch
Embassy in Warsaw, which is processing most of the
Jewish applicants.
Moreover, Michalowski said flatly that there had
been a "decided change for the better" in Poland's
domestic political climate as a result of "very
strong influence by the leadership." His statement
reinforces other indications, such as the marked
slowdown since May of anti-Semitic purges, that
Gomulka has reasserted some of his lost influence.
Michalowski's new air of confidence is significant,
because he appeared concerned about his own future
before his departure for consultations in Warsaw
last month.
Michalowski also stated that many of those
purged this spring have been reinstated. Although
no evidence supports this assertion, there are signs
that Gomulka is making efforts to get the backing of
broad elements of the party for a review of some
earlier ur es.
2 Jul 6 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Central America: Nicaragua has reportedly
threatened to break up the seven-year-old Central
American Common Market if the other member countries
do not ratify a pending tariff measure.
The measure, a 30-percent surcharge on imports
from outside the Market, has aroused the opposition
of business interests in the area. President Somoza
imposed it unilaterally, contrary to an earlier
agreement, and on various technicalities Nicaragua
has temporarily halted goods from other Central
American countries-at its borders. Some Central
American news media see this move as pressure by
Somoza that could paralyze the Market. More im-
mediately, Nicaragua's actions could harden oppo-
sition to the tariff surcharge in the various Cen-
tral American legislatures.
The Market's early years were marked by boom-
ing economies and increased investment opportunities
arising in large part from imposition of a common
external tariff. An economic slowdown that began
last year, however, is burdening the Market with a
trade deficit and impeding further inte ration
progress.
2 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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Argentina: Police had little trouble quelling
a series of antigovernment demonstrations on 28 June,
the second anniversary of the coup that placed Gen-
eral Ongania in the presidency. Outbreaks led by
workers and students in Buenos Aires and several
interior cities had the support of some Communists
and a variety of political figures, but participa-
tion was very limited. Although the workers have
threatened further demonstrations in July, the gov-
ernment has made clear that it will not tolerate
violence.
2 Jul 68 Central Intelli-ence Bulletin
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