CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011800060001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 7, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
50
7 August 1968
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No. 0228/68
7 August 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
USSR-Czechoslovakia: Moscow announces it will watch
Czechoslovak developments closely. (Page 2)
Syria-Lebanon: The Syrians are trying to force
Lebanon to adopt more favorable policies. (Page 3)
India: New Delhi extends Nagaland cease-fire.
(Page 5)
Ecuador: President-elect Velasco threatens not to
take office on 1 September. (Page 6)
Israel-Jordan: Border troubles (Page 9)
Youth Festival: Termination amidst discord (Page 9)
Congo (Brazzaville): Coup attempt (Page 10)
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[Vietnam:
South Vietnam: Ground fighting remains light
as Communist forces continue to maneuver in appar-
ent preparation for renewed offensive action.
Allied forces in III Corps reported numerous
minor contacts with the enemy on 5 and 6 August,
possibly indicating that small enemy units are try-
ing to move closer to Saigon. Several Communist
battalions are now within a short march of the cap-
ital. These forces pose a considerable threat. Be-
cause three Communist divisions normally deployed
in the region remain in the far north of the corps,
however, any early offensive against Saigon may be
limited to a few high impact targets, possibly ac-
companied by shellings.
In the delta, a series of coordinated attacks
on 5 August against nine outposts in Kien Phong
Province, as well as a mortar barrage on the pro-
vincial capital, could represent another attempt to
mask troop movements toward Saigon. Such unit move-
ments have been reported recently by a rallier and
several agents.
North Vietnam: Recent Hanoi radio propaganda
reinforces indications that another Communist of-
fensive in the South is imminent and suggests that
the North Vietnamese people are being prepared for
greater hardships. Domestic broadcasts have cited
recent statements by US leaders to claim that the
US is still "stubbornly pursuing" the war and to
imply that additional Communist military pressure
is required. Cryptic references in two such items
on 3 August to the need for special measures to
maintain internal security and public order suggest
that Hanoi is also taking precautions against in-
discipline or dissidence should the war intensify.
I I
7 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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[USSR-Czechoslovakia: In a formal politburo
statement, Moscow notified Prague that it will be
keeping a close eye on how the Czechoslovaks carry
through on the broad pledges made at Bratislava.
Yesterday's official communique affirmed that
the entire Soviet politburo approved the agreement
of 3 August. Avoiding the harsh language of late
July, the statement said that it is the "prime in-
ternational task" of all the signers of the Brati-
slava agreement to carry its provisions into life.
It said that Moscow "will be doing, for its part,
everything in its power" to this end.
In keeping with the post-Bratislava Soviet press
treatment, the communique described the meetings last
week in terms which suggested they were victories for
Communist unity and orthodoxy. This may be intended
to save face for the Soviet leaders at home but it
also serves as an antidote to the more optimistic
description of events being put out by Czechoslovak
sources. Soviet press treatment of Dubcek suggests
Moscow is prepared to work with him for the time be-
ing, but that it could again escalate the war of nerves
if the Czechoslovaks show signs of backsli on the
agreement.
7 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Syria-Lebanon: Syria is putting pressure on
Lebanon in an attempt to force the adoption of poli-
cies more favorable to Damascus.
Syria complains that Lebanon is permitting ex-
ile groups to plot against the Syrian Government.
It also has protested Lebanese Army efforts to pre-
vent Syrian-backed terrorist groups from using Leb-
anese territory to launch raids against Israel.
To back up its complaints, Syria thus far has
applied only economic pressure and travel restric-
tions against Lebanon but Lebanese officials fear
that additional pressures will be exerted. The Leb-
anese cabinet has retaliated by increasing tariffs
on Syrian commerce.
Lebanon may take steps to curtail the activities
of the Syrian exiles within its borders. Fearing
tough Israeli reprisals, the Lebanese will probably
continue, however, to inhibit terrorist raids into
Israel.
7 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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EASTERN INDIA
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M J T
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B: U,R,M A
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India: New Delhi has announced a two-month
extension of the Nagaland cease-fire but has taken
new measures to prevent armed Nagas from infiltrating
back from China.
The extension of the cease-fire was expected,
despite some saber rattling by the Indian press after
Nagas were discovered in possession of Chinese arms.
New Delhi wants to avoid responsibility for renewing
hostilities lest this reunite the Naga underground,
now apparently divided over the question of Chinese
support and whether there should be further parleys
with the,Indian Government. Indian Army commanders
also want to maintain the cease-fire because they
believe the difficult terrain and the rebels' demon-
strated fighting ability foreclose a military solution
without excessive bloodshed.
New Delhi, however, has announced that it will
attack any Naga group known to be in possession of
Chinese arms. Increased border surveillance has been
reinforced by a recent decision requiring permits for
crossing the 375-mile border between Burma and Naga-
land, Manipur,; and the Mizo Hills. Free movement
was previously allowed for 25 miles on each side of
the dense jungle frontier.
Meanwhile, Kaito Sema, one of the Naga leaders
who split last year with the underground faction
that favors support from China;, was assassinated on
4 August, reportedly by a member of the Angami tribe
that leads the more militant Nagas. The US consul
general in Calcutta suggests that the murder of
Kaito, who is from the Sema tribe, could lead to a
tribal blood feud if it is established that the
assailant acted on behalf of Naga militants.
New Delhi will no doubt welcome further strains
in the undergrounds The emergence of serious inter-
tribal hostility, however, could require Indian Army
intervention to maintain security, thus seriously
straining the cease-fire
7 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Ecuador: President-elect Velasco threatens not
to take office on 1 September if he is deprived of
the pork barrel.
Only hours before Interim President Otto Arosemena
signed a public administration career law on 5 August,
Velasco reiterated on television that he would not
assume the presidency if he had to abide by a law
that gives tenure to public employees after four
years' service.
[Reaction to the signing of the career law among
Velasco's followers has led to demonstrations in
Quito and Guayaquil.]
Jorge Zavala, elected vice president on a ticket
opposed to Velasco, has said that he disagrees and
will assume the presidency if Velasco does not. Leg-
islators of the parties backing the two men came
to a surprise working agreement last week and will
control both houses of the new congress, which will
convene on 10 August.
The US Embassy in Quito comments that the 1967
constitution is vague on succession and that Velasco's
followers will probably persuade him to take office.
Not even those closest to him, however, can predict
what the 75-year-old four-time ex-president will do.
He may not know himself, but his personalistic ap-
proach to power would indeed be severely affected if
he could not pass out a great many jobs at all levels.
Some of his followers reportedly believe that Velasco
will carry out his threat unless he has assurance
of US financial aid. Arosemena is leaving Ecuador
in serious economic and financial condition.
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
Israeli-controlled areas following
June 1967 hostilities
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Israel-Jordan: The hot pursuit of Arab terror-
ists into Jordan near Ein Yahav yesterday was the
first time since early April that Israeli ground
forces have crossed the border. The Israelis have
been especially sensitive to fedayeen operations
below the Dead Sea where their settlements are iso-
lated and vulnerable. The fact that the Israelis
brought back the bodies of saboteurs killed during
the operation may indicate that they have discov-
ered evidence concerning the terrorist organizations
and possible links to the Jordan Arab Army.
Youth Festival: There were increasing signs of
discord as the Ninth World Youth Festival drew to a
close yesterday in Sofia. The Bulgarian ambassador
in Tunis was summoned by the Tunisian foreign minis-
ter to explain the violent treatment accorded mem-
bers of the Tunisian delegation by the Bulgarian
militia. Some disgruntled delegations left Sofia
early and others had threatened to do so. The
Yugoslavs on 5 August charged festival officials
with discrimination, and complained of the undemo-
cratic atmosphere, procedural manipulations, and
excessive security measures at the festival. It ap-
pears that the Bulgarian authorities, reportedly
with the help of Soviet secret police, succeeded in
averting widespread disorders only by saturating
festival activities with security forces.
(continued)
7 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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Congo (Brazzaville): President Massamba-Debat
apparently has emerged from an attempted coup by
army and some militia elements with his position
intact and possibly even strengthened. The opportun-
istic leader of the coup attempt, former paracommando
chief Ngouabi, has also gained, however. He has been
confirmed by the President as armed forces commander
in chief. The radical-leftist opposition seems to
have been unable to capitalize on the weekend's
events. Key members of the provisional government
formed on 5 August are closely associated with the
relativel moderate President s pragmatic
policies.
7 Aug 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin 10
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