CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012200060001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 28, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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D
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50.
28 September 1968
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No. 0273/68
28 September 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia-USSR: The Warsaw, Pact commander visited
Prague on his tour of pact countries. (Page 2)
25X6
Communist China: Peking encountering difficulty in, estab-
is ing new provincial political and administrative
machinery. (Page 4)
Urugua : Disorders have further eroded the President's
political prestige. (Page 6)
Spain: Madrid seeking higher price for continuing the four
US uses there. (Page 7)
Burma: The assassination of its chairman will be a seri-
ouFlow to the White Flag Communists. (Page 8)
India: New Delhi's efforts to head off the recent civil
servant strike are still having repercussions. (Page 9)
Nepal: King Mahendra's most recent government reshuffle
odes not portend significant policy changes. (Page 11)
Communist China: Red Guard Control (Page 12)
Nigeria: Ojukwu's position (Page 12)
Congo (Brazzaville): Political maneuvering (Page 12)
Portugal: New prime minister's program (Page 13)
Argentina: Oil workers' strike (Page 13)
Honduras: End of strike (Page 13)
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C South Vietnam: Communist forces on 26 September
again took heavy casualties in unsuccessful attacks
on allied positions.
The Thien Ngon Special Forces camp in Tay Ninh
Province near the Cambodian border was the target
of a series of battalion-size assaults accompanied
by rocket and mortar shellings. At least 82 enemy
bodies were counted in an allied sweep of the camp's
perimeter.
Another Communist battalion was driven off after
an attempt to overrun a South Vietnamese outpost at
Phuoc Than some nine miles southwest of the provincial
capital of Tay Ninh on 26-27 September. The de-
fenders killed 146 of the attackers who left 62
weapons behind on the battlefield.
In other actions, US forces hit enemy mortar
positions west of Tam Ky on 26 September, killing
76 Communists, and a significant clash occurred in
the Duc Lap area when elements of the North Vietnamese
lst Division attacked a US reconnaissance patrol on
2'7 September.
Prime Minister Huong has relieved his younger
brother, Lam Van Gioi, of his post as Huong's special
assistant following public accusations that Gioi was
involved in stealing cars. Huong undoubtedly hopes
by this action to forestall criticism from his po-
litical enemies and to maintain his ima a as a foe
of corruption. 25X1
2 8 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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Czechoslovakia-USSR: Marshal Yakubovsky, chief
of the Warsaw Pact forces, visited Prague and Bucha-
rest yesterday, on the last stops of a series of
separate consultations with the political and mili-
tary leaders of the Warsaw Pact.
His discussions in Prague may have included terms
for withdrawal of a portion of the occupying forces,
and possibly the outline of a status-of-forces agree-
ment pertaining to the troops which would be stationed
indefinitely in the country.
Yakubovsky probably reviewed the current status
of Warsaw Pact forces at every stop, including Ru-
mania and Czechoslovakia. The news media of the
countries he visited indicated that his purpose was
to discuss strengthening of pact defenses.
The Czechoslovak Defense Ministry announced on
26 September that henceforth there will be two call-
ups of draftees--in October and in April--rather than
one each fall. The ministry said that this would per-
mit a more gradual outflow of manpower from industry.
The smaller call-up this fall will leave some bar-
racks empty and available for use by those Soviet
troops which are expected to remain in the country.
According to Western news correspondents, the Soviets
already have ordered the: evacuation of the Milovice
barracks northeast of Prague and are moving into
hotels and apartments in the larger cities.
I
28 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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Communist China: Peking's recent at.tempts`to
establish new provincial political and administrative
machinery appear to have run into serious difficulty
in some areas where local factional differences were
only papered over.
Considerable problems have arisen, for example, in,
forming new revolutionary committees for lower level
units in Yunnan. According to an editorial on 19 Sep-
tember, "some units" have arbitrarily set up "sham
revolutionary committees." Kunming radio on 24 Sep-
tember complained in even stronger language that un-
named but obviously powerful persons were scheming to
set up a rival provincial committee.
In describing the contest for power within the
lower level units, the recent broadcasts said that
bogus groups "openly fight for power and arbitrarily
take charge of buildings, production materials and
equipment, and other public property." This scramble
is one of a number of indications that the head of
Yunnan's military-dominated government, Tan Fu-jen,
is having great difficulty consolidating his author-
ity. Provincial radiobroadcasts complain that
transmittal of his instructions to lower level units
is often blocked. Moreover, his opponents often
hold "so-called political and professional work
conferences" at which they issue instructions without
Tan's knowledge or approval, and some basic level
units allegedly send him false reports on their
activities or, in some cases, no reports at all.
Some of the confusion in Yunnan may stem from
infighting between the supporters of two ranking
vice chairmen who were in opposition before the
provincial government was formed on 13 August and
who may be still. jockeying for power. Furthermore,
at least one high-ranking military officer has been
implicated in sporadic but serious incidents of
fighting which broke out in Kunming in late August
and early September.
(continued)
28 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
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Yunnan is the first province to complain about
the formation of bogus revolutionary committees, but
it is likely that similar problems have been plaguing
the new governments in other areas where civilian and
military officials maintain an uneasy alliance. Un- 25X1
resolved political problems have kept many parts of
western China turbulent in the past month.
28 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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Uruguay: Student and labor disorders in Monte-
video have further eroded President Pacheco's pres-
tige with.Congress and his own political party.
Despite the fact that Uruguay is going through
one of the most crisis-ridden periods in its recent
history, the legislators feel no urgent need to act
on vital legislation. Many have allowed narrow par-
tisan motives to come into play in a recent attempt
to censure the interior minister for his "brutal"
handling of student riots. Important factions within
the opposition political party are still supporting
some aspects of the President's program, however,
and his fight with Congress is not yet lost.
Pacheco's disposition to rule solely by decree
will increase if the congressional obstructionism
continues. The President is confident that he can
control the situation and that he has the complete
support of the security forces.
28 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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Spain: Madrid is dragging its feet on extending
the joint defense agreement with the US in an effort
to gain a higher price for continuing the four joint
military bases in Spain.
Foreign Minister Castiella has formally invoked
article V of the 1953 defense agreement with the US,
which was up for renewal on 26 September. This
article calls for a six-months' consultation period
and provides that if no agreement is reached during
that time--by 26 March 1969--the agreement will
terminate one year later.
The Spaniards appear convinced that the Soviet
presence in the Mediterranean, the crisis in Czech-
oslovakia, and the earlier French ouster of the US
from bases in France have made the four bases more
valuable to the US. They also contend that the
presence of the bases increases the risk to Spain
in a possible Soviet confrontation with the West.
They may believe extension of the negotiating period
will bring more favorable consideration of these
points by a new US administration.
If the Spaniards do not get a better price
than the present US offer, the possibility of ter-
mination of the agreement cannot be ruled out.
28 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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Burma: The reported assassination of the chair-
man of the White Flag Communists, Burma's largest
insurgent group, will be a serious loss to a leader-
ship already decimated by internal strife.
The Rangoon government claims that Thakin Than
Tun was shot by one of his own men on 24 September,
although the body has not been found. Five of
eight White Flag politburo members have died in the
past 18 months, most of them as a result of factional
conflict. Although the remaining three have been
politburo members for years, nothing is known of
their recent role or their leadership potential.
White Flag military activity has declined in
the party's traditional area of operations in south
Burma, where the leadership deaths have occurred.
The party's largest contingent is now a mixed ethnic
group that operates in northeast Burma near the China
border.
28 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin 8
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India: New Delhi's forceful efforts to stave
off last week's strike by civil servants is still
producing political fallout.
A major controversy has grown over the sending
of central reserve police into Kerala, without the
prior consent of the state government. This was
done to protect central government facilities after
Communist Chief Minister Namboodiripad openly espoused
.the illegal strike and refused to enforce an anti-
strike ordinance. Namboodiripad, who is also a
national leader of the Left Communists, has charged
New Delhi with violating"the constitution.
The issue brings into sharp focus the entire
question of state versus central government rela-
tions. Such unauthorized use of the central police
is unprecedented, and a strong central government
in New Delhi could find it a useful tool in dealing
with recalcitrant state regimes--especially those
controlled by opposition parties. Central govern-
ment departments are active on a large scale in
every state, and, if the Kerala precedent holds,
New Delhi could use its security forces much more
extensively.
Police excesses in coping with demonstrations
in New Delhi also have stirred up considerable con-
troversy. The government, however, is trying to
show fairness as well as firmness by punishing both
strikers and police involved in the violence. Of-
ficial sympathy has been expressed for all innocent
people who were attacked by the police, and com-
pensation is to be paid those injured.
The government reportedly plans to maintain for
the next several weeks a very hard line in dealing
with the strikers. Large-scale recruitment is al-
ready under way to replace thousands of discharged
and suspended employees. New Delhi is expected to
28 Sep 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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grant selective clemency to rank-and-file employees
who were only in technical violation of the strike
;ban. In this way New Delhi hopes to combat a
threatened coalition of left and right opposition
attempting to renew the disturbances.
28 Sep 68
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Nepal: King Mahendra recently appointed a new
Council of Ministers and reshuffled portfolios, but
significant policy changes are unlikely.
The periodic juggling of politicians and
portfolios is one of Mahendra's characteristic de-
vices to balance off various personalities and pre-
vent consolidation of opposition. The new cabinet
has: been reduced from 22 to 14 members, including
four new appointees. Most of the incumbents re-
ceived portfolio reassignments.
S.B. Thapa was reappointed prime minister and
promoted to chairman of the cabinet, a post formerly
held by the King. The move to strengthen Thapa's
position is viewed as a strong vote of confidence
from the King and indicates that Thapa's satisfac-
tory performance does not represent a challenge to
Mahendra's absolute authority. It does, however,
greatly augment Thapa's political vulnerability if
he fails to achieve results with his increased power.
Thapa tends to favor progressive measures in Nepal's
plodding domestic development and recently scored
over conservative landowner interests by successfully
supporting land reform legislation.
Former Deputy Prime Minister K.N. Bista lost
his cabinet post but retains ministerial rank. He
now heads the Nepalese delegation to the UN, where
Nepal anticipates election to the Security Council
this year. Bista had resisted plans for liberaliza-
tion of Nepal's domestic politics, and his removal
is viewed as a favorable omen by those advocating
a reconciliation between the government and the
reformist Nepali Congress Party, the opposition
group whose leaders are exiled in India.
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Communist China: The drive to reimpose control
over militant Red Guard groups is assuming massive
proportions. University and middle school graduates
by the hundreds of thousands are being rounded up and
dispatched to the countryside to army-run state farms.
According to Hong Kong Communist newspapers, more than
200,000 graduates have been sent from the city of Pe-
king alone. Although many students are going to well-
established farms in remote border regions, others
seem at least initially to be destined for hastily
constructed detention camps in suburban areas.
Nigeria: Biafran leader Ojukwu still seems de-
termined to carry on the war. He told an assembly
of Ibo representatives on 25 September that "the war
is far from ending. In fact, it is just beginning."
Ojukwu also intimated.that even if conventional war-
fare ceased, stepped-up guerrilla war would continue.
Biafran forces in fact have again taken a much fought
over town in southeastern Biafra and are only very
grudgingly. giving ground to. increased federal pressure
all around the gradually shrinking Ibo homeland.
Continued federal successes. however, together with
peace feelers by prominent Biafrans, could undermine
Ojukwu.. F' I
Congo (Brazzaville): Plotting aimed at bringing
about a complete military take-over is reported to be
gaining momentum. 25X1
army strongman Ngoua i
would like to dissolve his alliance with civilian
leftists, but remains fearful of a violent reaction by
leftist irregulars. At the same time, there is re-
ported to be growing unrest among some elements. within
the army against Ngouabi himself. These elements
resent-the recent promotions of a disproportionate
number of Ngouabi"s fellow northern officers and his
failure to produce an across-the board pay raise for
the military. 25X1
(continued)
28 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 12
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Portugal: Marcelo Caetano, the new prime minis-
ter, appears likely to carry on Salazar's internal
and foreign policies for the present. At'his swearing-
in ceremony yesterday he pledged to continue the
stricken leader's program, and praised the armed forces
for their defense against the "insidious enemy" in the
African overseas provinces. His cabinet retains most
of the key ministers, and the few newcomers are mostly
professional people who will bring needed energy to
the administration. An important test for the new
team will be its ability to take steps to modernize
the internal political and economic administration.
Argentina: Four thousand oil workers at the
state-owned refinery at La Plata struck on 25 Sep-
tember to protest the refinery's decision to add two
hours to the six-hour work day that has been in effect
for about 20 years. The strike has so far been peace-
ful, but the workers, members of a militant Peronist
union, are incensed over what they regard as a drastic
unilateral revision of their collective bargaining
agreement. The situation in La Plata could become
further complicated as university students there have
also called for a strike to protest student expul-
Honduras: The Lopez government has broken
the general strike called on 19 September. Sporadic
student agitation continues in the capital, but
planned student demonstrations are unlikely to
have any impact. Although the government has re-
affirmed its support of labor union rights, the
past week's events are likely to deepen opposition
hostility toward the government.
_
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The United States Intelligence Board, on 27 Sep-
tember 1968, approved the following National Intel-
ligence Estimate:
NIE 65-68, "Prosects for the Congo"
28 Sep 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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