CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012300060001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 12, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
State Department review completed
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No. 0285/68
12 October 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia-USSR: Prague continues to affirm
that it will carry out its reform program. (Page 2)
USSR-Berlin: The Soviets warn of new harassments in
Berlin. Page 3)
Betel ium: The government has published its proposals
or constitutional revision. (Page 4)
Peru: The takeover of US oil assets has boosted the
new government's popularity. (Page 5)
Guatemala: 'Armed civilian counterterrorists have
turned in weapons issued them some two years ago.
(Page 6)
Dominican Republic: Political activity is increasing
in anticipation of the 1970 presidential election.
(Page 7)
USSR-Egypt: Patrol boat delivery (Page 8)
Cyprus: Intercommunal talks (Page 8)
Chile: Student militancy (Page 8)
Uganda: Africanization program (Page 9)
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C South Vietnam: Several sharp engagements have
occurred in the northern provinces and northwest of
Saigon, but the level of military activity remains
generally light.
Near the Demilitarized Zone, US Marines killed
at least 20 members of an enemy company in the vicin-
ity of Con Thien on 11 October. The Communists are
trying to keep up some pressure on the Thuong Duc
Special Forces camp in Quang Nam Province, but have
failed in several recent probes against US Marine
positions. Allied efforts to engage Communist forces
in the III Corps area west and northwest of Saigon
are taking a steady toll of enemy personnel. I
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Czechoslovakia-USSR: Czechoslovak leaders are
stubbornly'
tubborn y insisting on carrying out their reform
program and appear in no hurry--or perhaps are un-
decided how--to clamp down domestically.
Prague leaders have been briefing regional and
district party officials on their recent trip to
Moscow, and have not yet indicated when they will
convene a central committee plenum to ratify the
Moscow communique. President Svoboda demonstrated
his unity with the party leaders yesterday, affirming
that the government will gradually introduce Dubcek's
liberal policies.
Czechoslovak press, radio and television have
reacted to news of Dubcek's commitment to tighten
controls over them by resuming direct criticism of
the occupation powers. Various intellectuals and
writers reportedly feel that the Czechoslovak lead-
ership may have sacrificed too much in Moscow. It
is possible that the increased press criticism re-
flects this feeling.
The Soviet press has not yet responded to the
latest sallies of the Czechoslovak media. A TASS
report on the Czechoslovak presidium meeting of
9 October was phrased so as to suggest to the Soviet
reader that Prague was now more determined than be-
fore to carry out the Moscow agreement. Pravda jux-
taposed the TASS report, however, with excerpts from
a speech by Polish party leader Gomulka in which he
criticized the persistent failure of the Czechoslo-
vaks to normalize relations between parties. It is
unlikely that the Soviet propagandists will be si-
lent much longer.
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USSR-Berlin: Soviet officials have warned again
that the East Germans will harass forthcoming West
German activities in Berlin.
A Soviet Embassy official in Berlin delivered
an oral protest to the US mission on 10 October,
charging that the Christian Democratic Union conven-
tion and a meeting of the Berlin branch of the Na-
tional Democratic Party--both events scheduled for
West Berlin--will "worsen the situation in and around"
the city. The official claimed that these events
would bring a "certain reaction" from the East Ger-
mans, but he would not specify further. Last month
the same official warned a West German journalist
that Communist pressure on Berlin would continue,
and would consist of an increase in threatening
propaganda and interference with autobahn and even
air access.
Another Soviet diplomat in Berlin has told a
US Embassy official that "some unpleasantness" could
be expected from East Germany in connection with the
Christian Democrats' convention set to begin on
4 November. This will be the first national party
convention held in West Berlin since 1952. This
Soviet official said there would be no harassment
of the forthcoming West.German Bundestag committee
meetings.
In a speech on 6 October, East German Premier
Stoph also suggested that Pankow will focus on the
Christian Democrats' meeting. Nevertheless, East
German moves against Berlin during the Bundestag
"work week" in late October are still possible.
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Bel ium: Prime Minister Eyskens' coalition
has made public its proposals for a constitutional
revision aimed at easing tensions between the Dutch-
speaking Flemings and the French-speaking Walloons.
The Social Christian - Socialist government was
formed in June with the understanding that the con-
stitution,which has not been changed since 1921,
would be revised. The proposals as now formulated
would offer cultural autonomy, long desired by Flem-
ings, in exchange for laws beginning the economic
decentralization demanded by the Walloons.
Laws governing the use of both languages, which
have been in force for years, would be given consti-
tutional sanction. The Senate would be divided into
two councils on a language basis, but the lower house
would not be similarly divided. The Senate councils
would legislate by decree on cultural matters relat-
ing to their own communities, and would have juris-
diction over the budgets of their separate ministries
of culture.
The outlook for revision is uncertain. The
coalition is short of the required two-thirds ma-
jority even if party discipline is maintained in
both the lower house and the Senate. Preliminary
discussions at the cabinet level have been far from
amiable, and the press and legislative debate will
certainly be just as bitter over the coming months.
It is not clear at this time how the Liberal and
small extremist parties will vote.
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Peru: The expropriation of the International
Petroleum Company holdings has increased the new
government's popularity.
Political groups from the extreme right to the
extreme left have praised the decision to nationalize
the La Brea and Parinas oil fields and the refinery
complex at Talara. Celebrations were held throughout
the country as political parties and civic and pro-
fessional groups rallied in support of President
Velasco.
Three large US mining companies and the other
US petroleum companies operating in Peru have been
assured by the minister of development that the IPC
action was an exceptional case and that their opera-
tions would be "scrupulously respected." Despite
these assurances, foreign investors will delay on
the future commitments Peru has been seeking.
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Guatemala: Armed civilian counterterrorists
in the northeast have yielded to army demands and
have returned weapons issued to them by the govern-
ment over two years ago.
The civilians have been under increasing gov-
ernment pressure to disband since last March, and
the peaceful turn-in has greatly reduced the pos-
sibility of a bloody incident between the civilians
and the military.
The counterterrorists have been allowed to re-
tain their personal weapons, but their effective-
ness against Communist guerrillas and others has
been significantly impaired. Furthermore, the Za-
capa commander has ordered the civilians to abstain
from unilateral actions against the guerrillas.
The government's success in disarming the group
may reduce the death toll in the northeast. Although
the civilians were largely responsible for clearing
the guerrillas from the area in late 1966 and 1967,
many non-Communists also lost their lives as a re-
sult of the civilians' irresponsible behavior.
Further Communist terrorism of significant pro-
portions could well persuade the goverment to re-
turn the weapons.
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Dominican Republic: Political maneuvering is
already under way in anticipation of the presidential
election scheduled for May 1970.
Much of the jockeying centers around President
Balaguer, whose partisans are already moving to se-
cure his re-election. Although some of Balaguer's
recent actions suggest he is toying with running
again, the over-all drift and stagnation that charac-
terizes his administration does not suggest that he
has yet made a decision. If Balaguer does not run,
some of his supporters are talking of backing the
very conservative vice president, Francisco Lora.
The former provisional president and current
ambassador to the US, Hector Garcia Godoy, has begun
a campaign to organize a moderate."movement of na-
tional unity" behind his candidacy. A former moderate
leader of the left-of-center Dominican Revolutionary
Party is heading the drive, and Garcia Godoy has
privately requested the support of the Social Chris-
tians.
Recent statements by Juan Bosch that he intends
to leave his self-imposed European exile and return
to his homeland have led to speculation that the
former president may run again. The actual inten-
tions of Bosch remain, as always, unclear.
The nascent presidential campaign seems likely
to stir up the relatively placid political climate
of the past several months and may have some unset-
tling effects on the military, which is still the
key political group in the country.
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USSR-Egypt: The Soviets are delivering another
Shershen-class fast patrol boat to Egypt. The
Shershen, a relatively new Soviet type, was towed
out of the Black Sea by a Soviet tug on 10 October.
This will by the seventh Shershen in Egypt's naval
inventory. Five of the last six have been delivered
since the hostilities in June 1967.
Cyprus; There continues to be little progress
on the intercommunal talks. The question of Turkish
Cypriot local autonomy is still on the shelf, and
each meeting of the two negotiators reveals more di-
vergence of view--even on some of the lesser issues--
than was apparent in the initial stages of the talks.
Submission of some of the problems to joint commit-
tees may be the next step, which itself is likely to
be a long and laborious operation.
Chile: The Communist Party is concerned about
the increasing militancy among students of the pro-
Castro Movement of the Revolutionary Left (MIR).
Student attacks against US diplomatic installations
in Santiago on 4 October were undertaken by the MIR
and by the Socialist Youth organization against the
wishes of Communist and Christian Democratic stu-
dents. The Communists, who strongly oppose violence,
believe that the MIR's influence among students is
far greater than its numbers would warrant. Although
the Communists so far have been unable to devise a
solution to the problem, their concern about MIR in-
fluence may stimulate closer cooperation between them
and the Christian Democrats at the student level.
(continued)
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Uganda: Uganda is planning to begin a new pro-
gram of Africanization. The program includes re-
placing noncitizens in commerce and industry over
the next five. years, training programs for Africans,
and increased financial support for African enter-
prises. The Asian community, which plays a signifi-
cant role in the economy, will be hardest hit. Al-
though Africanization has been a recurring issue in
Uganda, the government has accomplished little so
far despite increasing public pressure. If some of
the new Africanization measures cause serious eco-
nomic disruptions, the government will probably relax
them. Similar legislation in Kenya this year caused
the exodus of about 16,000 Asians. 25X1
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