CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012400060001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 26, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
50
26 October 1968
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No. 0297/68
26 October 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
North Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
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Czechoslovakia-USSR: New problems are developing for
the Du cek leadership. (Page 3)
USSR-Belgium: Moscow attempting to reassert disci-
pline in Belgian Communist Party. (Page 4)
South Asia - USSR - Communist China: India and Pak-
istan seek more arms aid. (Page 5)
Panama: Business leaders are withholding cooperation
with the junta. (Page 6)
Arab States - Israel: Border incidents continue at
frequent intervals. (Page 7)
France-Italy: Paris reportedly will go along with
a Citro en-Fiat financial deal. (Page 8)
Thailand: Pre-election political activity gets under
way as the ban on organized politics is lifted. (Page 9)
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West Germany - East German : Proposed high-level
contacts (Page 11)
Syria: Factional squabbling (Page 12)
Philippines-Malaysia: Sabah dispute (Page 12)
Bolivia: US communications facility (Page 12)
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[North Vietnam: With the beginning of the dry
season in the Laos panhandle, the number of trucks
traveling over the Mu Gia Pass has begun to increase
and the Communists have stepped up repair work on the
roads.
During the first two-and-a-half weeks of October,
about 16 trucks were noted going through Mu Gia each
day, compared with 13 trucks per day during the summer
rainy season. Recent photography has shown bulldozers
being used to widen and straighten sections of road.
Many roads are getting new gravel or corduroy surfaces,
water crossings are being improved, and new bridges
and bypasses are being constructed around bombed choke
points.
The North Vietnamese are continuing their vig-
orous program to improve their air defenses during
the bombing restriction.
Photography of 20 October shows that the Com-
munists are building a new airfield southwest of
Hanoi, near Xuan Mai. About one quarter of the
7,400-foot runway is already graded. Fighter air-
craft operating from the completed field will
strengthen Hanoi's southwestern perimeter and pro-
tect the big military complex at Xuan Mai.
26 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Czechoslovakia-USSR: Dubcek and his colleagues
are plagued by new problems as the 50th anniversary
of the first republic approaches.
They fear that student demonstrations on 28 Oc-
tober will invite reprisals by the occupation forces.
The leaders in Prague reportedly have banned all hos-
tile demonstrations and have visited schools to caution
students against clashes with pro-Soviet groups who
intend to parade in the streets. National Assembly
President Smrkovsky has flatly told a student gath-
ering that "if you demonstrate, we all might be sorry."
Czechoslovak youth have thus far remained loyal to
Dubcek, but they could be taunted by the opposition
into riots.
The Dubcek leadership, meanwhile, has made ad-
ditional concessions to the Soviets. In the first
major retreat from the economic reform program, the
Czechoslovaks have abandoned their experimental
"Workers Councils"--an attempt to stimulate produc-
tion by giving the workers a greater role in the
management of industrial enterprises. In addition,
Prague will eschew reforms and retain in the educa-
tional system many of the features patterned after
the Soviet model which the present leadership had
hoped to drop.
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USSR-Belgium: Moscow apparently has made an at-
tempt to reassert discipline in the Belgian, Communist
Party following the party's condemnation of the in-
vasion of Czechoslovakia,,,
Moscow probably felt that it was time to remind
the Belgian party of its dependence on the USSR and
to rally pro-Soviet members prior to the Belgian
party congress on 15-17 November. The Soviets prob-
ably also hoped to persuade the Belgians to modify
their stand on Czechoslovakia.
Even though Belgian party leaders were unanimous
in publicly denouncing the invasion, there was oppo-
sition in the Belgian central committee and even more
in local federations. There is now a struggle between
an idealistic, nationalistic faction and a group of
stalwarts reluctant to offend Moscow.
The Belgian party, never an important :force in
its country's politics, has suffered a recent decline
in membership. It won only 3.2 percent of the vote
in the election last sprincr, and had little success
in launching an anti-NATO campaign. In addition,
the party is split between Moscow and Peking adher-
ents. The pro-Chinese faction is further split into
a proliferation of miniscule groups.
26 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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South Asia - USSR - Communist China: Both India
and Pakistan are embarking on another round of explor-
atory negotiations with Communist military aid suppliers.
Indian Defense Minister Singh is heading a mili-
tary delegation which arrived in Moscow on 24 October
for a week of discussions. Despite assurances to US
officials in New Delhi that Singh is not carrying a
detailed shopping list, he probably will renew India's
request for medium-range bombers and for more naval
equipment. He may also request additional aid in de-
veloping defense industries. The Indians will almost
certainly bring up Soviet arms sales to Pakistan, a
matter of great concern to them.
The Soviets have agreed to provide some military
equipment to Pakistan. The Pakistanis, however, are
still interested in maintaining their options with
Communist China, which has been Pakistan's principal
source of military equipment since 1965. Pakistan's
Army commander in chief is scheduled to lead a mili-
tary delegation to China early in November. The dele-
gation is expected to negotiate for spare parts for
MIG-19 jet fighters and medium tanks, both previously
supplied by China, and may also seek additional weapons.
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Panama: Influential business leaders are with-
holding cooperation from the junta in hopes of forc-
ing a greater civilian role in the government.
Junta representatives have repeatedly asked the
business and professional community for support, but
most business leaders reportedly want to remain aloof
until they can exact a firm commitment from the mili-
tary to return control to civilians..
In an apparent effort to offset opposition, Col-
onel Urrutia, a member of the two-man junta that nom-
inally heads the government, retired from the national
guard on 23 October. Since his colleague, President
Pinilla, had already retired from the guard under the
Arias administration, the junta can now claim that the
government is "civilianized," Nevertheless, Colonel
Torrijos and the clique of guard officers who precipi-
tated the coup on 11 October are still the real powers.
Antimilitary sentiment, which has a long history
in Panama, is widespread, and some observers believe
that the military government may be moving in a more
repressive and arbit.rar direction.
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Arab States - Israel: Border incidents and ex-
changes of fire continue to occur at frequent inter-
vals along the Arab-Israeli borders.
The Israeli-Jordanian border is the hottest sec-
tor, with fire fights occurring there at the rate of
two or three a day. Clashes on the Israeli-Syrian
border occur less often; there have been two short
fire fights in the past week. There has been only
one exchange on the Israeli-Lebanese border but'.the
terrorists would like to make greater use of this
border in the future.
Egyptian-Israeli tensions, resulting from cross-
canal ambushes of Israeli troops and mutual artillery
duels in late August and early September, have lessened,
although there are almost daily exchanges of small-
arms fire across the canal. An aerial encounter be-
tween three Egyptian MIG-21s and three Israeli Mirage
jets took place on 23 October over the Ismailia area
of the canal. Air-to-air missiles were used by both
sides, apparently with no hits. Egyptian claims of
having shot down three Israeli jets are denied by
Israel, and UN truce observers said that there did
not appear to have been any losses.
None of the combatants has sustained any large
number of casualties recently. Defense Minister Dayan
stated on 16 October, however, that since the end of
the 1967 six-day war, Israel had suffered losses of
233 killed and 873 wounded from border incidents and
terrorist actions.
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France-Italy: Paris has now reportedly approved
an agreement reached between the French auto firm
Citroen and Italy's Fiat.
It he agreement permits each irm
to invest an equal amount of money--approximately
$33 million--in the other's company. Citroen, badly
in debt, has no money available now to buy into Fiat;
the agreement gives the French company a five-year
option to purchase shares. Even if Citroen could
eventually invest the entire amount permitted, it
would end up with only a two percent share in Fiat.
Fiat, on the other hand, will be permitted to buy
enough shares to give it control of about 18 percent
of Citroen.
The French Government rejected an earlier accord
between the two companies because too great a share
of Citroen would have passed into Fiat's hands, thus
endangering national control of the second largest
auto firm in France. The government's rejection
drew heavy attack from advocates of closer European
financial and industrial cooperation, who argued that
European firms must amalgamate in order to compete
with US industrial giants.
The move reflects :Fiat chief Agnelli's interest
in following the American pattern of greater diver-
sification of automobile models and larger business
units. The new agreement also could give Citroen
the large new source of capital it needs to finance
long-term expansion, as well as access to a foreign
dealer network to improve its presently poor exunr
position. F77 I
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Thailand: Officially sanctioned political ac-
tivity in reparation for the upcoming legislative
elections is now under way.
Following promulgation of the Political Parties
Act in mid-October, the government party registered
Thursday as the United Thai People's Party, thus
ending Thailand's ten-year ban on organized politics.
The government's major opposition, the Democratic
Party, is expected to register soon, with others to
follow.
Government draftsmen carefully tailored the new
act to prevent a proliferation of splinter parties,
and it gives the Interior Ministry wide discretionary
powers to suppress "extremist" political views of
approved parties. The legislation appears, however,
to allow considerable latitude for criticism in con-
nection with local issues.
The Thanom government is carefully nurturing
its "liberal" image and will probably be reluctant
to cut off debate on major issues. Government for-
eign policy, for instance, has recently come under
attack in the press, and members of the government-
appointed upper house have voiced criticism of the
regime's political restrictions.
With elections for the lower house only four
months off, government party leaders have yet to
come up with a coherent campaign strategy. They
may be closer, however, to resolving the factional
differences that have plagued them. During a "party
unity" function last month, key leaders, including
Deputy Prime Minister Praphat, who heads the strong-
est faction, professed determination to pull to-
gether under Prime Minister Thanom's leadership.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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West Germany - East Germany: Chancellor Kie-
singer remains op-
posed to contacts with high-level as German offi-
cials, unless there is pending an improvement in
the political climate. Prior to Czechoslovakia,
Bonn was considering East German proposals for con-
tacts to discuss trade and certain technical matters.
Although Kiesinger is under pressure to revive this
scheme, he presumably wants some indication of the
over-all East German attitude. For this reason, he
is likely to hold off at least until Bonn can assess
Pankow's reaction to several West German activities
scheduled for West Berlin in the next three weeks.
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Syria: Friction among the leaders of the
Syrian Baathist government apparently reached a new
peak of abrasiveness during the recent party con-
gress in Damascus. A number of intraparty squabbles
has arisen over such questions as Baathist ties with
the Syrian Communist Party and Syrian relations with
the Soviet Union. The team lineups are obscure, but
it seems likely that some realignment of the radical
leadership, possibly involving armed conflict, will
take place in the near future.
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Philippines-Malaysia: Malaysia's withdrawal of
diplomatic immunity from the Philippine Embassy staff
in Kuala Lumpur has further strained relations be-
tween the two governments. Kuala Lumpur has already
called home most of its diplomatic staff from Manila
and plans to withdraw the remainder shortly. Malay-
sia suspended relations on 18 September following
President Marcos' signature of a bill referring to
Philippine sovereignty over Sabah. 25X1
Bolivia: Opposition congressmen in La Paz have
protested the existence of a US communications fa-
cility in Bolivia, which they have termed "little
Guantanamo." They have called the authorizing agree-
ment, which was signed in 1962, an unconstitutional
cession of territory and are urging its review or
abrogation. The Congress may not take any action
before it adjourns in December but the issue can
be expected to come a again. 25X1
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