CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012400120001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 2, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
State Department review completed
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No. 0303/68
2 November 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
USSR: Soviet manned space flight activity has shown
only modest progress since Cosmonaut Komarov's death.
(Page 3)
Egypt-Israel: Nasir may be pressed to take face-
saving action in response to the Israeli raid. (Page 5)
USSR-Algeria: Moscow will undertake a mineral ex-
ploration program. (Page 6)
Panama: Junta opponents may stage demonstrations be-
ginning tomorrow. (Page 7)
Peru: President Velasco continues to take an ex-
tremely nationalistic line. (Page 8)
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Norway: There is fresh concern over the state of
far north defenses. (Page 10)
India: New foreign secretary (Page 11)
Italy: Communist leadership (Page 11)
Yugoslavia: Defense budget (Page 11)
Chile: Potential?violence (Page 12)
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Vietnam:
South Vietnam: No significant Communist offen-
sive actions have been reported since the bombing
halt went into effect on 1 November.
In addition to the shellings against several
cities and allied military bases, an enemy ground
probe against a US Army base in Tay Ninh Province
took place early on 1 November. Casualties in this
action were fairly heavy on both sides.
Communist efforts to brace their forces in the
South against any letdown because of the bombing
halt were disclosed in a directive of 28 October
captured in the delta. The directive warned Viet
Cong forces to beware of "peace illusions" if the
bombing were stopped, and reaffirmed that Communist
objectives remained intact. In the same kind of ex-
hortation prevalent since the Paris talks began,
the directive told Communist personnel to prepare
for stepped-up military and political activities
after a bombing cessation.
The South Vietnamese Government has balked at
attending the next session of the Paris talks under
the conditions described by President Johnson.
The issue was left vague in pronouncements on
1 November, but in his speech today to the National
Assembly, President Thieu specifically stated that
the arrangements were unacceptable. Thieu said that
Hanoi cannot be permitted to employ "ruses" to get
the Liberation Front accepted as a separate entity
because this would set a precedent for the formation
of a coalition government in South Vietnam.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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[Domestic political considerations doubtless also
weigh heavily in Thieu's calculations and he may be-
lieve they require him to take this kind of inde-
pendent position. Vice President Ky has frequently
warned that he would move, against the government if
he felt it were proceeding toward an accommodation
with the Communists. Many other South Vietnamese
have been outspoken in opposing any Liberation Front
participation in negotiations.
North Vietnam: Hanoi delayed its public re-
sponse to the U5 bombing halt. for more than 24 hours,
but has now issued a qualified endorsement of the
kind of four-way meeting described by President
Johnson.
A government statement broadcast on 2 November
stated that after the US has stopped the "bombing
and strafing" of North Vietnam, Hanoi will discuss
with the US "other matters of concern to the two
sides so as to seek a political solution to the Viet-
nam issue." The statement said that Hanoi was ready
for a meeting including the four parties named by
President Johnson, but it. specifically denied that
the presence of the "Saigon administration" constit-
utes recognition of it.
F I
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USSR: The Soviets have shown only modest prog-
ress in manned space flight activity since Cosmonaut
Komarov perished during the recovery of Soyuz I in
April 1967.
The recent Soyuz III mission demonstrated that
the Soviets again consider this spacecraft safe for
manned flights. During the four-day flight, Beregovoy
completed the first Soviet rendezvous involving a
manned capsule, but failed to dock with the unmanned
Soyuz II target vehicle--a major objective of the
mission. Both manual and automatic techniques were
attempted. While the Soyuz III mission appeared to
encounter few difficulties save for the failure to
dock, no significant advances were demonstrated.
The Soviets must either greatly increase their
efforts or accept high risks if they intend to keep
pace with the US manned lunar program. 25X1
2 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Israelis Hit Bridges and Power Station on the Nile
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Egypt-Israel: Nasir may come under heavy pres-
sure to take some face-saving action to offset the
impact of the Israeli raid into Egypt on 31 October.
The raid against two bridges and a power station
on the Nile River north of Aswan has once again
pointed up Egyptian vulnerability to Israel's typi-
cally professional military operations. Nasir, how-
ever, even though he recognizes that his military
establishment is not yet able to come out on top in
major military exchanges with Israel, probably will
decide that this is no time to show weakness by re-
laxing Egypt's aggressive military posture. As a
result the Arab-Israeli situation probably will de-
teriorate even further, with perhaps fatal conse-
quences for the mission of UN special representative
Gunnar Jarring.
The UN Security Council was called into session
by Egypt and it seems that Cairo will seek, for the
moment at least, to seize the initiative in that
forum.
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USSR-Algeria: The USSR reportedly will, under-
take a seven-year mineral exploration program in Al-
geria that will involve 700 Soviet technicians.
The agreement, which was drawn up in Moscow last
July during the visit of the Algerian minister of in-
dustry and energy, is expected to be signed later this
month. The Soviets reportedly will allocate almost
$11 million to the project during 1969-71. The money
for this phase is expected to come out of funds earned
this year from Soviet purchases of Algerian wine, pet-
roleum products, and minerals.
Soviet technicians already have conducted some
exploratory work for ferrous and nonferrous minerals,
and they are developing facilities to process lead,
zinc, and mercury. The USSR currently has almost
1,900 economic technicians in Algeria; approximately
200 of them are engaged in petroleum research and
exploration. F7 I
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Panama: Opponents of the junta government may
attempt to stage demonstrations against the national
guard during the three-day national holiday observances
which begin tomorrow.
University students voted overwhelmingly on 28
October to extend their strike until 6 November and
participate in the independence day protest march.
They appear to be paying little attention to the
Communist-dominated leadership of the country's
largest student federation, which has urged all stu-
dents to refrain from militant opposition to the
guard. The Communist movement has already been hard
hit by the junta's arrest of key activists, and fears
further repression if students openly defy the guard.
The split between the students and Communist
leaders, together with the government's decision to
restrict student participation in national holiday
programs to ceremonies at individual schools, will
probably reduce the chances for serious disorders.
Extremist elements or supporters of ex-president
Arias, however, may try to set off clashes with the
guard, whose forces will be heavily deployed throw b-
out the city during the three-day observances. 25X1
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Peru: President Velasco is continuing to take
an extremely nationalistic line.
In a speech on 30 October he claimed that the
military had moved against former president Belaunde
because Belaunde had ignored repeated warnings against
supporting economic interests that "scoffed at our
sovereignty and exploited us like slave traders."
Velasco stated that the present administration will
put an end to "the privileges of a few, supported
by those colonial interests today repudiated by the
entire world." In a separate speech he said that
the military government plans to remain in office a
long time.
At the same time, the government is taking a
tougher line at home. Two newspapers, a magazine,
and two radio stations that have criticized the gov-
ernment have been closed in the last few days. An
official communique following the closings stated
that press freedom will continue, but that reports
"interfering with the objectives of the revolution"
will not be permitted. This may be the first move
toward censorship or other forms of regulation.
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Norway: The recent, parliamentary debate on
foreign policy showed signs of fresh concern over
the state of Norway's and NATO's defenses, partic-
ularly in the far north.
Defense Minister Tidemand set forth in un-
usually strong and detailed terms the lessons for
Norway and NATO of the events in Czechoslovakia and
the Soviet military exercises held this summer near
the Norwegian border. Reflecting long-standing con-
cern in Norway about its lightly defended north,
Tidemand pointed to the Soviet ability to prepare
to intervene in Czechoslovakia under the cover of
military exercises and the implications this had
for Norway. He noted that. in addition to the So-
viet land forces' exercises in the north, the So-
viets had also conducted naval, air, and amphibious
exercises off Norway and had developed the Kola
peninsula as a major base area.
The US Embassy in Oslo believes that Tidemand's
strong statements were intended to create a receptive
atmosphere for the defense! recommendations he will
be making to bolster Norway's defenses as well as
to counter any remaining illusions Norwegians have
about immediate prospects for East-West detente.
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India: Dealings between India and the West are
likely to be more difficult following the retirement
next week of Rajeshwar Dayal as Indian foreign sec-
retary and his replacement by T.N. Kaul, previously
Dayal's immediate subordinate. A former ambassador
to the USSR, Kaul is characterized as an opportunist
whose pro-Soviet bias has been tempered by Dayal's
moderating influence. As the ranking civil servant
in the Ministry of External Affairs, Kaul can be ex-
pected to encourage the pro-Soviet inclinations of
Prime Minister Gandhi, who still. acts as her own
foreign minister.
Italy: A persistent circulatory ailment may
cause Luigi Longo, secretary general of the Commu-
nist Party, to accept a new,,less active post as
party president. Enrico Berlinguer, who is 46, would
then probably oversee daily affairs of the party.
He has supported Longo's stand against the Soviet
intervention in Czechoslovakia. The 12th national
party congress, scheduled for January, would prob-
ably be the occasion for the announcement of a new
secretary general, should it be necessary.
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Yugoslavia: The Yugoslav budget for 1969 in-
creases the defense allocation to a record $549
million. This sum, which is more than 60 percent
of the total budget, represents a seven-percent in-
crease over military expenditures planned for this
year. Increased taxes on certain luxury goods and
on some commercial transactions will provide enough
additional revenue to cover approximately 80 per-
cent of the planned increase in total budgetary
expenditures. These taxes also will lessen the in-
flationary impact of additional defense spending.
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Chile: Violence may erupt on 4 November during
a ceremony awarding the first land titles under the
governments agrarian reform program. More families
have been settled in the Choapa Valley, north of
Santiago, than the land can support, and about 500
will have to be moved. The Socialists, who are
strong in the area, reportedly may try to exploit
the situation to embarrass the government, and vio-
lence could result. F77 I
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