CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012500010001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 4, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
50
4 November 1968
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No. 0304/68
4 November 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia: Dubcek is faced with growing dis-
sension within the Communist Party. (Page 4)
Israel - Arab States: There have been additional
incidents along the frontiers. (Page 5)
Communist China: Peking is starting to arrange for
1969 wheat imports. (Page 6)
Argentina: The oilworkers' strike could lead to a
deterioration in relations between the trade unions
and the government. (Page 7)
USSR-Indonesia: Economic delegation (Page 8)
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'41)a Nan
SOUTH VIETNAM
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C Vietnam:
South Vietnam: Ground action remained generally
light over the weekend, but the Communists launched
mortar attacks against three provincial capitals af-
ter the US bombing halt took effect.
The attack against Quang Tri city on the night
of 1-2 November was relatively light, wounding one
South Vietnamese soldier. My Tho city, in the delta,
received 40 mortar rounds on the night of 2-3 Novem-
ber; four South Vietnamese were killed and 36 wounded.
There were no casualties in Vinh Long city, which was
hit by eight rounds on the same night. Light mortar
attacks also hit three delta district towns.
There has been no report of North Vietnamese
firing in the Demilitarized Zone area since the
bombing halt.
The emotion-charged atmosphere in Saigon fol-
lowing President Thieu's 2 November speech on the
bombing halt and on the prospect of expanded talks
seems. to have given way to calmer discussions.
After the speech, a number of officials and
other leaders aimed their fire at the US, and the
Upper House of the National Assembly adopted by ac-
clamation a communique calling the bombing halt "an
act of betrayal." By 3 November, the house was
taking.a more sober approach, and had established
a committee to study specific ways to support Thieu's
policy to "strengthen the nation." There still ap-
peared to be a consensus among the senators, however,
that the US had broken a solemn commitment and that
US abandonment of South Vietnam is a real possibil-
ity.
(continued)
4 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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C As of 3 November, Thieu was still reaping ac-
claim for standing up to the Americans. Praising
Thieu's speech, one newspaper said that it "marked
the confirmation ...of President Thieu as a na-
tional leader."
North Vietnam: The Communists are moving to ex-
ploit the opportunities presented by Saigon's refusal
to go to Paris. Saigon's move was a windfall, and
it doubtless has strengthened Hanoi's conviction that
the talks can be used to expose US - South Vietnamese
political differences.
All Vietnamese Communist statements are now
calling the bombing halt "unconditional," although
the first version of Hanoi's statement on 2 November
failed to use this language. The change probably
was aimed partly at aggravating differences between
Saigon and Washington.
The Communist treatment of the proposed four-
party talks in Paris focuses on the status conferred
on the Liberation Front and the tremors created in
Saigon. Xuan Thuy took pains to emphasize in Paris
on 2 November that four "independent delegations"
would take part in the talks, and an editorial in
the Hanoi party press stresses that the Front will
be there with "complete independence and equality."
The North Vietnamese have soft pedaled the con-
tinuation of US aerial reconnaissance and do not now
seem inclined to use the issue to paralyze the talks.
The Liberation Front has put forth a new five-
point negotiating position in a statement broadcast
on 3 November. It revives parts of the Front pro-
gram of August 1967 and will probably serve as
openers in Paris.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C In Moscow's first authoritative comment on de-
velopments, an official statement of 2 November said
that "the Soviet Government regards the understand-
ing in Paris as an important success along the road
of a peace settlement in Vietnam." The release pos-
tulates that the US must take a "realistic and seri-
ous approach" to the positions of the North Vietnam-
ese Government and the Liberation Front in order to
make progress at the forthcoming talks, but advances
no views on what future steps may be taken by either
side, obviously deferring to future events in Paris.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Czechoslovakia: Dubcek is faced with growing
dissension within the Czechoslovak Communist Party.
Party presidium members reportedly disagree over
the formulations contained in a document being pre-
pared on domestic and foreign policy. They are also
said to be arguing over the validity of some major
parts of Dubcek's liberal Action Program, and on fix-
ing responsibility for the "mistakes" made after
Dubcek took over last January.
Conservative leaders are attempting to force
Dubcek to implement all of Moscow's demands and to
abandon those reforms that conflict with Soviet ob-
jectives. The progressives, on the other hand, are
seeking to keep intact as many reforms as possible.
There are differences of opinion among the liberals,
however, on how far Prague should go in sacrificing
Dubcek's program in order to satisfy the Soviets.
These disputes could force party officials to post-
pone a central committee plenum tentatively set for
mid-November.
The conservatives, meanwhile, are meeting more
openly to prepare for celebrations on 7 November com-
memorating the Bolshevik revolution and the beginning
of Soviet-Czechoslovak friendship month. Several new
splinter groups and publications are now promoting
the cause of the hard liners. Some liberal elements
within the party are already criticizing Dubcek for
allowing the conservatives to organize and, subse-
quently, for his failure to take measures to curb
their drive for power.
Moscow may well be hoping that the combination
of the dissension within the Czechoslovak leadership
and an increase in conservative strength will even-
tually result in Dubcek's ouster and the installa-
tion of a pro-Soviet conservative leadership.
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Israel - Arab States: There have been additional
incidents along the Arab-Israeli frontiers, and Arab
civilian opposition in Israeli-occupied Jordan has
intensified.
The Arab protest strike on the West Bank on
2 November--the anniversary of the Balfour Agreement--
was almost 100-percent effective in most towns. No
major violence occurred, but the Israeli authorities
have threatened to take steps against striking mer-
chants.
Anti-Israeli demonstrations also took place in
other parts of the Arab world on the occasion. Sat-
urday's attack on the US Embassy in Amman, which was
also tied to the Balfour Day anniversary, further
demonstrated the ability of the fedayeen to operate
freely in urban areas of Jordan. A radiobroadcast
sponsored by the Fatah commando organization has
called on "every Arab man, woman, old man, and child"
to turn into a fighter.
Meanwhile, the level of border incidents remains
high. On the evening of 2 November, terrorists
shelled the Israeli port of Elat from inside Jor-
danian territory, wounding three civilians. Earlier
the same day, two Israeli soldiers were killed in
artillery exchanges in the northern Jordan River
valley area and in the Golan heights. On the evening
of 1 November, Israeli forces clashed with terrorists
on the Golan heights.
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Communist China: Peking is starting to make
arrangements for its 1969 wheat imports.
Negotiation of a new Sino-French wheat agreement
now is under way in Peking. According to the French
commercial attache in Peking, China probably will
purchase the same amount of wheat from France in 1969
as in 1968. Deliveries this year, which were com-
pleted in October, amounted to almost 600,000 tons.
Canadian wheat deliveries to China also were
scheduled to be completed last month and negotiation
of a new wheat agreement between the two countries
is expected to begin soon. Wheat negotiations be-
tween China and Australia, suspended in August when
price difficulties arose, may be resumed. Although
Australia has not had any official word from Peking,
an official from the Australian Trade Commission
gathers that "something may be in the wind."
China imported some 3.6 million tons of wheat
this year 600,000 tons less than were imported in
1967. r' I
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Argentina: The oilworker's strike has spread
to the point that it could lead to a deterioration
in relations between trade unions. and the government.
The 5,000-man Comodoro Rivadavia union struck
.on 28 October in sympathy with La Plata oilworkers
who have been protesting since 25 September over a
lengthening of their workday. Over 1,000 strikers
demonstrated on 29 October against government.oc-
cupation of their union headquarters.
President Ongania has not yet chosen to bring
the oilworkers under military discipline and control,
but he could do so at any time. Even if he decides
against mobilization, the formerly apathetic Argen-
tine labor movement may have been stirred up suffi-
ciently to cause problems for the administration's
economic reform programs.
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NOTE
USSR-Indonesia: Moscow is threatening to post-
pone indefinitely the scheduled visit of a Soviet
economic delegation because of Indonesia's execution
of Indonesian Communist leaders. The delegation was
to have reviewed the over-all Soviet aid program and
to have discussed a further rescheduling of Indone-
sia's large debt. Moscow may continue to supply mil-
itary spare parts and technicians on a cash basis in
order to preserve some .presence in Indonesia.
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