CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012600030001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 20, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
State Dept. review completed 20 November 1968
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No. 0318/68
20 November 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
France: The heavy outflow of French reserves in-
dicates that confidence in the franc has not been
restored. (Page 2)
Italy: The government's resignation lends urgency
to negotiations for a new coalition. (Page 3)
Japan: Negotiations on Okinawa reversion may be
affected by yesterday's B-52 crash. (Page 4)
Mali: Army elements are moving to consolidate their
takeover of the government. (Page 5)
Hungary-USSR: The two countries have signed a new
cultural and scientific"agreement. (Page 7)
Venezuela: Terrorists (Page 9)
Chile: Student elections (Page 9)
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NORTH''.
.VIETNAM
Tay Ninth BINM
PtiuOc
TUY
CAMBODIA
a Nang
Qpang Ngai
DUANC
SOUTH VIETNAM
I
MILES
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[Vietnam: Communist forces renewed their shell-
ing of the Da Nang area on 18-19 November and mounted
a strong ground attack in the Mekong Delta.
In the delta action, a South Vietnamese Regional
Force compound near the capital of Vinh Binh Province
was attacked by two enemy companies. Casualties to
the garrison's seven defending companies included 30
killed and 23 wounded. In addition, 21 civilian de-
pendents were killed and 30 were wounded. The attackers
lost only two killed.
In the Da Nang area, allied military installa-
tions again came under enemy rocket and mortar fire
on 19 November. Casualties and materiel damage were
light, however. Elsewhere, two district towns in the
delta and one in northern I Corps were among the tar-
gets hit by mortar attacks.
Enemy troop movements continue to be observed
southwest of Da Nang; allied artillery fire killed
48 North Vietnamese regulars in this area on 18 No-
vember. These movements lend support to reports that
further heavy attacks are planned in the coastal low-
lands of Quang Nam Province.
the
initial phase ot the Communists' winter-spring cam-
paign in Quang Nam began on 10 November and will con-
tinue through 20 December. The major objectives of
this phase reportedly include small-scale sabotage
and infantry attacks against strategic areas adja-
cent to Da Nang, coupled with intensified guerrilla
activities within the city itself. If these actions
are successful, they will be
followed by major ground attacks by forces of the
Communists' Front 4 command and the North Vietnamese
2nd Division.
20 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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I France: Yesterday's heavy outflow of reserves
indicates that the remedial measures announced on
Monday have not restored confidence in the franc.
By the time the exchanges closed yesterday,
French reserves probably had fallen another $300
million to about $3.2 billion. This is more than
50 percent below the $6.9 billion level of 1 May
1968.
France's stated intention to reduce budgetary
expenditures and to tighten credit are more likely
to be effective in the long run than to have a deci-
sive short-term impact. Speculators are aware that
France cannot stand the heavy drain of the past week
for much longer. Decisive action to halt the out-
flow by devaluation will have to be taken well before
reserves disappear.
In a related development, a spokesman for West
Germany reaffirmed his government's determination
not to revalue the mark upward. Instead, it was an-
nounced that new tax measures, designed to reduce
the German trade surplus, would be taken. New leg-
islation to be discussed by the Bundesrat (upper
house) tomorrow probably will include imposition of
an export tax and reduction of the "value-added tax"
presently levied on most German imports.
These measures would weaken Germany's strong
competitive position in the long run. It is doubt-
ful, however, that they will be interpreted as de-
cisive steps by the foreign exchange markets. As
long as speculators can continue borrowing to buy
marks and sell francs, the pressure on the French
currency is likely to.continue to be very heavy,
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Italy: The government's resignation yesterday
lends urgency to negotiations for a new triparty
coalition.
Both the Christian Democratic and the Socialist
parties have minority factions dissatisfied with the
party leadership, however, and this complicates the
problem of forming such a coalition. About 20 per-
cent of the Christian Democrats' ruling National
Council are members of the left-wing faction. The
dissident left-wing and centrist factions of the So-
cialist Party hold 47 percent of the positions on
their party's central committee. All these factions
are reported to be planning to work together and may
prove to be a major hazard to the negotiations.
Should the negotiations not lead to a reconsti-
tution of the old coalition, the outcome might be
another interim government, without Socialist par-
ticipation, pending a congress of the Christian Dem-
ocratic Party planned for early next year.
Leading candidates to replace caretaker Prime
Minister Leone are Christian Democratic leaders of
long standing. Treasury Minister Colombo and party
secretary Mariano Rumor are among the most likely.
Priority items for a new government program are
likely to be labor problems and educational reforms.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Japan: Yesterday's crash of a B-52 bomber in
Okinawa could have important repercussions on Tokyo's
negotiations with the US on the reversion problem.
Although Okinawan property damage and personnel
injuries were slight, the incident is being sensa-
tionalized in the Japanese press, making it difficult
for the Foreign Office to hold to its initial low-key
expression of concern to the US Embassy. The issue
is clearly susceptible to exploitation by leftist
demonstrators both in Japan and Okinawa. Furthermore,
the crash will generate additional opposition pres-
sure on the government to seek removal of the bombers
and to stiffen Japan's approach to the reversion
question.
Prime Minister Sato, who will. seek a third term
as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's president
on 27 November, will now come under renewed pressure
to take a firm stand with the US on the postreversion
status of the bases on the island. Up to this point,
he has avoided committing himself on this question.
In contrast, his two party challengers, Miki and
Maeo, advocate the same restrictions that now apply
to bases in Japan--prior consultation on use of
bases and no storage of nuclear weapons. Sato's
re-election does not appear to be in serious jeopardy,
however.
Since the arrival of B-52s last February, their
presence has been continuously criticized by the
Okinawan news media, the public, and all elements
in the political. spectrum. Chobyo Yara, the leftist
chief executive - elect, has reiterated in the wake
of the crash that he will. press the US military ad-
ministration for removal of the bombers,
20 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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[Mali: Army elements that yesterday proclaimed
the overthrow of the radical regime of President Mo-
dibo Keita are trying to consolidate their position..
The swift and well-executed coup has met with
little or no resistance. Participating units, in-
cluding US-trained paratroops, control all strategic
points in Bamako and have effectively neutralized
the main camp there of the Popular Militia, the para-
military arm of Mali's single party. It is not yet
clear whether all upcountry army garrisons have joined
in the coup.
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There are unconfirmed reports tha
some cabinet ministers and left-wing militants in the
party have been arrested.
Although all the prime movers behind the coup
are not yet known, a heretofore obscure lieutenant,
Moussa Traore, seems to be a key figure. He has an-
nounced over Radio Mali that a "Military Committee
of National Liberation" has been established to ex-
ercise government powers.
Intense friction between the army and the militia
was probably an important factor in the decision of
the officers to move against the regime. The army
has resented the increased authority given the militia
ever since the regime took on a more rigidly left-wing
cast in the summer of 1967. in addition, discontent
with the Keita regime has,increased generally be-
cause of the troubled state of the economy and dif-
ferences between militants and moderates over whether
Mali should maintain its revolutionary socialist
course or pursue more pragmatic policies.
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Hungary-USSR: The two governments have concluded
an agreement that will bind Hungarian cultural and
scientific life more closely to that of the USSR.
Hungarian publicity for the accord, which was
signed by Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko and Hun-
garian Culture Minister Ilkuq suggests that Budapest
believes it has won an important acknowledgement of
equality. Although the text of the agreement is not
available, it appears to contain several firsts, in-
cluding provisions for joint scientific research,
joint book publishing, joint theatrical projects, and
cooperation in the training of educational special-
ists.
An unprecedented clause calls for Hungarians to
scrutinize with a view to correction the USSR's text-
books on Hungary and vice versa. The Soviets agreed
to loosen their controls over exchange visits, al-
lowing for private initiative on the part of individ-
uals from each side. After years of literary pirating,
the USSR also agreed to copyright arrangements.
The Soviets extracted a price. The agreement
calls for coordination of the positions of the cul-
tural delegations of both countries at international
cultural and scientific conferences and in similar
multinational organizations. If the Soviets live
up to the accord, however, it will in time probably
help to lessen Hungarian resentment over some of the
inequities in their country's relationship with the
Soviet Union.
20 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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NOTES
Venezuela: Terrorists attempted to assassinate
a Venezuelan Army general on 17 November. The in-
cident took place in western Venezuela in an area
frequented by Douglas Bravo's Armed Forces of National
Liberation. At about the same time, another group
attacked the general's home. No injuries were re-
ported in either incident, but the attacks are likely
to reinforce doubts of military leaders over the wis-
dom of the government's current amnesty programs.
Security measures will probably be tightened in prep-
aration for the general election on 1 December, but
Communist extremists are likely to make additional
terrorist attacks.
Chile: Student elections at two important uni-
versities have continued for the most part the polit-
ical alignments previously in effect. At the presti-
gious University of Chile, the Christian Democratic
students maintained their control of the student
federation, but extremists of both the left and the
right increased their representation on the executive
committee. At the University of Concepcion, the ex-
treme leftists retained control of the executive com-
mittee of the student federation. Following the an-
nouncement of the results in Concepcion, the students
attacked the USIS office in a "victory celebration,"
causing extensive damage.
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SecroA
Secret
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