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December 15, 2016
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June 3, 2003
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November 29, 1968
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Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A01260SC601 25X1 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret 50 29 November 1968 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/06/'Y9-':CePAk P79TO0975AO12600100001-0 No. 0326/68 29 November 1968 Central Intelligence Bulletin CONTENTS Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1) Pakistan: Antigovernment disturbances present the government with its most open challenge in a decade. (Page 2) West Germany - NPT: Bonn has again aired its un- certainties about the treaty. (Page 3) Panama: Small groups of pro-Arias insurgents have entered western Panama. (Page 5) Chile: Serious drought will intensify the govern- ment's problems. (Page 7) Rumania - Warsaw Pact: High-level meeting (Page 8) Czechoslovakia: Refinery destroyed (Page 8) 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/068 N MP79T00975A012600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/06/f1 -DP79T00975A012600100001-0 Tonle \ Sup L %A Saravane LAOS Ca Mau s iv CORPS 13ARLAC Ban Me 'HANH(;' QuANG jNha Trang jw ^tlC ~~- - MILES 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/$E I 1 P79T00975A012600100001-0 Approved For Release 20039/'11`:IA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0 C Vietnam: Sharp clashes occurred in western III Corps as allied troops on sweep operations encountered several enemy battalions. On 27 November and again the next day, allied units discovered and engaged Communist forces around Loc Ninh in Binh Long Province. Thus far, some 129 enemy troops have been reported killed in these battles. In Tay Ninh Province, several engagements occurred on 27 and 28 November. Thus far, well over 200 Commu- nists have been reported killed in the fighting. Saigon's announcement of the resignation of In- formation Minister Thien may be merely the first of several cabinet changes. Thien's departure appears to have resulted from a combination of factors, par- ticularly President Thieu's loss of confidence in him as the official spokesman for the government fol- lowing his handling of an alleged coup attempt in early October. His role as a vocal critic of US pol- icy in connection with the bombing halt and the Paris talks may also have made him a convenient scapegoat once an accord was reached. Rumors of other cabinet changes have been cir- culating for some time. The most often mentioned candidate to follow Thien is Foreign Minister Tran Chanh Thanh. 29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/C$B P I DP79T00975A012600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/(1C }FZDP79T00975A012600100001-0 Pakistan: Persistent antigovernment disturbances in West Pakistan have presented the government with its most open challenge in a decade. The violence, which began early this month, has so far been confined largely to students, intellec- tuals, and other disaffected elements of the popula- tion. The police, backed up if necessary by the army, presumably can be expected to re-establish an uneasy peace after each outbreak, but the causes of unrest remain and disorder will probably continue-- particularly with the approach of elections in Sep- tember 1969. The campaign of former air force chief Asghar Khan, who announced his entry into politics last week, is moving into high dear. On 26 November, he received a tumultuous welcome in Peshawar and, despite his efforts to prevent disorders, rioting followed. In the ensuing melee, the USIS library was invaded and some books and equipment were de- stroyed. This was the first attack on a US installa- tion during the current series of disorders. Ayub's opponents, meanwhile, have received en- couragement from a former chief justice of the East Pakistan High Court, who announced his entry into opposition politics and endorsed Asghar's recent. antigovernment charges. This could be a significant breakthrough for those who seek to create a coalition of opposition elements from both wings of the country to contest next year's elections. 29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2000pf(1A cJA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/0%Yl YA DP79T00975A012600100001-0 West Germany - NPT: London's ratification of the nonproliferation treaty (NPT) has caused Bonn again to air its uncertainties over the subject. Bonn believes that the Czechoslovak crisis has reaffirmed that the NPT must allow the Europeans the possibility of moving toward the creation of a Euro- pean nuclear force without necessarily waiting for full European political union. The Germans want London's assurances that this so-called "European option" will be available under the treaty. They also would like reassurance that ratification of the treaty will not alter NATO strategy, and that they could back out of the treaty if NATO were dissolved. The British position is still that no European nuclear force is possible short of its formation under a fully federated European state. Thus, this issue, which has been dormant for several months, is likely to remain a major point of contention. Bonn had hoped that the invasion of Czechoslo- vakia would lead all the Western powers to defer ratifying the treaty. The Germans had intended to postpone action themselves, possibly until after the parliamentary elections next fall, but the British action may now bring the issue to the fore. 29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/0fgFC j-1PP79T00975A012600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/06/1'3 R9flF79T00975A012600100001-0 cos '>uiCA Urena SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/06/111CCIA- DP79T00975A012600100001-0 I Panama: Small groups of exile supporters of ousted president Arnulfo Arias have crossed the Costa Rican border into western Panama, where they have been joined by local dissidents. as many as 2OU pro-Arias insurgents may be involved. Inhabitants of this mountainous area are strongly antimilitary, and their support for the infiltrators could create a long-term problem for the military government in Panama City.. Arias and his entourage in the US, meanwhile, are continuing to use every opportunity to gain the sympathy of influential US citizens, including govern- ment officials. Besides seeking support for an at- tempt to re-establish himself in power, Arias has made a pitch for an economic squeeze on the junta and has distorted facts to imply that it is Communist- dominated. Actually, no Communists have been put in key positions in the provisional government, but Arias' followers have sought Communist support for a "guer- rilla" movement and antijunta action in Panama City, The only.organiza- tion capable of disrupting public order, however, would be the Communist-led student federation, which has so far refused to go into the streets against the junta. F7 I 29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/0WQl DP79T00975A012600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : O F91b0975A012600100001-0 Chileans Suffer Worst Drought in 44 Years 25X1 IMPORTANCE OF THE DROUGHT AREA IN 1965, THIS AREA ACCOUNTED FOR: 45 percent of the cultivated and fallow land 54 percent of the sown area 86 percent of the irrigated area 31 percent of the improved pasture 76 percent of the orchards and vineyards 52 percent of production of wheat 82 percent of production of barley 98 percent of production of corn 100 percent of production of rice More than 50 percent of production of vegetables More than 75 percent of production of fruit 34 percent of the cattle 25 percent of the sheep 44 percent of the hogs 39 percent of production of dairy products SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/0(5dC&kWDP79T00975A012600100001-0 Chile: The worst drought in 44 years will inten- sify the country's serious economic problems and may increase the political difficulties of the Christian Democratic Party. The drought probably will cut agriculture produc- tion next year by 20 to 30 percent and force a reduc- tion in the output of agricultural processing indus- tries. Other industries will be adversely affected by reduced hydroelectric power supplies. Together, these may reduce gross domestic product per capita in 1969 by as much as ten percent. The drought also will exacerbate Chile's chronic inflation and balance-- of-payments problems as well as raise unemployment significantly. Thus far, the Christian Democratic government of Eduardo Frei has not announced any changes in its programs to cope with the consequences of the drought. Next year's budget allocates to drought relief only the proceeds expected from sales of additional ship- ments of surplus US agricultural products. Available evidence suggests that Frei intends to rely on the US to assume practically the entire burden of immediate drought relief. The drought may hurt the Christian Democrats in the elections of 1969-70, unless it can be used suc- cessfully as a scapegoat for economic shortcomings. The impact of the drought probably will be at its peak by March 1969, when congressional elections are scheduled. 29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7 Approved For Release 2003/OJ t DP79T00975A012600100001-0 Approved For Release 2003/0",' U,; 1"=FDP79T00975A012600100001-0 Rumania Warsaw Pact: The annual meeting of high-level Warsaw Pact officers, in session at Bucharest since 26 November, is slated to end today. If a final communique is issued, it may shed new light on matters relating to Rumania's role in pact affairs, such as holding joint maneuvers on Rumanian soil next year, increasing the size of its army, and standardizing military supply sources. The Rumanian leadership and press have made no comment on the meeting, but some Rumanian diplomats and officials are displaying concern about Soviet intentions. ,,Czechoslovakia: An explosion and fire are re- ported to have destroyed most of the equipment at Czechoslovakia's largest petroleum refinery, the Slovnaft works at Bratislava. This refinery pro- duces most of Czechoslovakia's refined petroleum products. Restoration of the refinery will require at least several months, during which time alternate sources of supply--probably the USSR--must be found. Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2003/0S6L11 C EIRDP79T00975A012600100001-0 SecE roved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0 Secret Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0