CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012600110001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 30, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
50
30 November 1968
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'V41FA1DP79T00975A01 260011
No. 0327/68
30 November 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Laos: The Communists are attacking in the Bolovens
Plateau area. (Page 3)
Communist China: Recent gestures reflect a more con-
ventional foreign affairs approach. (Page 4)
Communist China: There are moves to reduce material
incentives in agriculture. (Page 5)
Somali Republic - Ethiopia: Renewed harassment of
Somalis in eastern Ethiopia causing problems for
Somali prime minister. (Page 7)
Rumania-USSR: Ceausescu takes a firm line in prepara-
tion for upcoming bloc meetings. (Page 8)
Argentina: The government has second thoughts about
buying Mirages. (Page 9)
Colombia: Another major political crisis is threatening
the National Front system. (Page 10)
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Cambodia: Oil refinery (Page 12)
UN-Korea: Debate to begin (Page 12)
Mexico: Student extremists (Page 12)
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NORTH
. IVIETNA
.Q
QUANG TRI
Hue'
HUA THIEN
.AShau y
16 tyang
THAILAND
Saravane
LAOS
QUANG NAM I CORPS
QUANG TIN
QUANG *Q ang Ngai
PHU
YEN
QUANG
DUC
TUYEN
Da Lat.
011C N NH
THUAN
u gTau Ili CORPS
Capital Special Zone
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SECRET
CAM BODIIA
KI[N
'II ANG
TUONC
'EN
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C South Vietnam: Heavy fighting is continuing in
the provinces north and northwest of Saigon as allied
forces grapple with dug-in Communist units. Enemy
forces have taken heavy casualties in this series of
clashes.
South Vietnamese forces reported a 40-round mor-
tar attack on 28 November from an enemy position be-
lieved to be in the southern half of the Demilitar-
ized Zone. Military action was generally light through-
out the rest of the country.
30 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Laos: Communists Launch Offensive In Bolovens Area
Savannak,het
VIETNAM
)ling Hai
aravane
z~ F
Sharply atta Ce
Bin Thateng
BOLOVENS Cron nment
rnlrei olurnn
Pakseainbu
Paksong
PLATEAU
CAMBODIA
SECRET
L21 Communist -controlled territory
Contested territory
Government-held town
SOUTH
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Laos: The Communists appear to have begun their
annual dry season offensive in the Bolovens Plateau
area.
North Vietnamese troops have launched several
sharp attacks against the government base at Ban
Thateng over the past several days. The defenders
have inflicted heavy losses on the enemy but fighting
was continuing at last report. A small government
relief column on its way to the beleaguered outpost
from Paksong was routed in a Communist ambush.
The attack against Ban Thateng is the most sig-
nificant enemy action in the Bolovens Plateau area
since last February, when the enemy moved into the
Se Done valley and surrounded the provincial capitals
of Saravane and Attopeu. The North Vietnamese may be
picking up where they left off then, with the Ban
Thateng thrust the initial step in a new effort to
push government forces from the eastern rim of the
plateau. The attack could, however, be no more than
a reaction to a recent sweep operation designed to
clear enemy forces east of Ban Thateng and extend
the government's presence into the infiltration
corridor.
The North Vietnamese have enough troops in the
area to take the Bolovens Plateau and the provincial
capitals of Attopeu and Saravane if they choose to
do so. The tactical situation was essentially the
same last year, however, and the provincial capitals
are still in friendly hands.
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Communist China: Recent Chinese moves have re-
flected a more flexible and conventional approach to
foreign affairs in Peking.
China's acceptance of the US proposal to resume
ambassadorial talks in Warsaw next February appears
to have been. prompted by its desire to establish con-
tacts with the incoming US administration and to as-
sume a more forthcoming international posture. Peking
had refused earlier to hold a scheduled November ses-
sion of the talks. In accepting the February date,
however, the Chinese denied having opposed the Novem-
ber meeting and accused the US of seeking to delay
the talks until the new administration takes office
in Washington.
Peking's public announcement of its willingness
to meet with the US also probably reflects a. soften-
ing of the Chinese position on Vietnam negotiations.
Peking's heavy-handed criticism of Hanoi's decision
to talk with the US had been a major factor in its
reluctance to hold a Warsaw session for over a year.
In another possible indication of Peking's de-
sire to assume a more active foreign role, Chief of
Staff Huang Yung-sheng arrived in Albania on. 26 No-
vember for a two-week visit. Huang is the first mem-
ber of the top Chinese elite to visit a foreign coun-
try since June 1967. Other ranking Chinese leaders
have been sitting on a number of state invitations,
and Huang's visit could possibly signal a revival of
Chinese "personal diplomacy"--once an important el-
ement of Chinese foreign policy.
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Communist China: Some steps may be under way to
carry out Mao's radical policies to reduce material
incentives in agriculture.
The most detailed account of changes is contained
in a 12-point plan recently presented to one commune.
This calls for a more egalitarian system of labor pay-
ments, for the reduction of private plots, and for re-
assignment of most administrative personnel to "laboring"
posts in order to increase their ideological worthi-
ness. Provincial radio stations have recently praised
communes that have merged basic units and collectivized
privately owned pigs.
With food supplies precariously balanced against
need, however, it is unlikely that there will be a
sudden and sweeping change in agricultural incentive
systems. Up to now, the leadership, while accepting
heavy economic costs, has demonstrated an awareness of
the consequences of its actions. Some changes may be
tried out, but the importance of food production
probably will continue to inhibit the achievement of
ideological purity in agricultural policies.
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.ETHIOPIA/SOMALIA: Incident in Ogaden Mars Detente
SUDAN?
TANZANIA
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~?sAr+
SAUDI,; ARABIA
f+i1A7''7t"SH SHAG
? Site of 17 November
Hargeisa attack on Somali convoy
REPUBLIC
MOGADISCIO
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Somali Republic - Ethiopia: Moderate Somali Prime
Minister Egal is under attack by his political opponents
because of renewed Ethiopian harassment of Somalis in
eastern Ethiopia.
Several Somalis were killed, on 17 November during
an attack by Ethiopian troops. The Somalis were mem-
bers of a convoy of civilians who were crossing Ethio-
pia under the provisions of a far-reaching detente ne-
gotiated by top Ethiopian and Somali leaders in early
September? this is only
one of several incidents of renewed harassment of So-
malis by the Ethiopian Army in the long-troubled Oga-
den region.
Egal, the major architect of the detente policy,
is in the midst of a parliamentary election campaign
and is concerned over the political advantage that
his opponents can gain by exploiting such incidents
because of a basic Somali distrust of Ethiopia. The
prime minister will probably press the Ethiopians to
uphold their end of the September agreements by re-
straining their local commanders.
These latest incidents in the Ogaden point up the
vulnerability of the detente to irresponsible actions
by certain elements in the militar of both countries.
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Rumania-USSR? Rumanian leader Ceausescu has
formulated a firm position in preparation for upcoming
bloc meetings.
In two recent speeches;; he stoutly defended Ru-
mania's policies toward the bloc's Council for Eco-
nomic Mutual Assistance (CEMA) and the Warsaw Pacts
Ceausescu said that Rumania cannot, go along with
proposals to give CEMA "suprastate prerogatives" and
create "certain supranational economic bodies,,"
He also seemed to be lecturing his Warsaw Pact
allies when he said that Rumania understands its
responsibilities and duties under the pact, even as
he implicitly rejected recent. Soviet pronouncements
limiting the rights of members of the "socialist
community." This "thesis?" he declared, "'does not
correspond to the principles of the relations among
the socialist countries and cannot be accepted. under
any form whatsoever,',,
Ceausescu's remarks are characteristic of his
style of leadership., He may have considered it nec-
essary to be so firm in preparation for the forth-
coming CEMA summit meeting. An, additional reason
may have been Ceausescu's desire to condition the
Rumanian public to go along with concessions his
government reportedly has made, notably to permit.
combined pact maneuvers on Rumanian soil in 1969,
Ceausescu,, however, avoided comment on Moscow's call
for Bucharest to disassociate itself from any NATO
"umbrella" over Rumania and Yugoslavia,: 25X1
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Argentina: The Ongania government is having
second thoughts about purchasing the French Mirage
interceptor.
In a speech on 26 November, the defense minister
indicated that for the present Argentina would not
purchase the 12 Mirage III aircraft for which it has
been negotiating several months. Air force leaders
had assumed the decision to buy the Mirage was firm,
and were shocked by the statement.
The government has publicized its intention to
purchase most of its arms in Europe, but a slippage
in deliveries of French tanks has given military
leaders reason to believe that switching to European
suppliers might create unexpected problems.
Argentina apparently is still committed to super-
sonic interceptors as part of its re-equipment pro-
gram, but the deferral of the Mirage may be designed
to allow the US to make a new offer of the F-5.
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Colombia: The second major political crisis in
six months is threatening the National Front system
of government.
On 29 November, President ]:Lleras' entire cabinet
resigned at his request. The President announced at
the same time that he will reorganize the government
because the Liberal-Conservative coalition, which has
maintained stability in Colombia for the past decade,
could not effect the constitutional reforms and other
legislation he considers necessary. All governors
and officials of the presidential palace have also
resigned.
The present crisis was triggered by proposed
legislation that the Conservative Party believes
would ensure a Liberal majority in the congress of
1974, when the agreement: that created the National
Front is due to expire. Under the National Front
system, the presidency has alternated between the
Liberals and the Conservatives every four years.
Lleras' political tactics in recent months have
been counterproductive, and this head-on clash seems
no more likely to solve the mounting political prob-
lems than did his threatened resignation last June.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Cambodia: The imminent completion of a refinery
at Sihanoukville will virtually eliminate Cambodia's
dependence on the Mekong River for imports of its
petroleum products. The refinery's production prob-
ably will meet Cambodia's normal requirements during
the second quarter of next year, and rail service
from Sihanoukville to Phnom Penh is scheduled to begin
at the same time. Both developments will reduce the
pressure that South Vietnam can exert on Phnom Penh
by closing the Mekong to shipping destined for Cam-
bodia.
UN-Korea: The General Assembly's First Political
Committee has passed a US-backed resolution that ex-
presses willingness to invite North Korea to partici-
pate, along with South Korea, in the UN debate of
Korean affairs, provided North Korea accepts UN ju-
risdiction over Korean matters. The committee's
vote was 67 to 28 with 28 abstentions. Earlier, the
Soviet-led bid to invite North Korea without strings
attached failed by a vote of 40 to 55 with 28 ab-
stentions, a slightly greater margin of defeat than
a similar move suffered last year. The motion failed
despite new tactical moves and increased diplomatic
pressures by the Soviets and their allies. On 11 De-
cember, the committee will begin substantive discus-
sions of the Korean question, but a North Korean
delegation is not likely to appear.
Mexico: Divisions among student leaders could
provoke further violence. On 27 November, one stu-
dent was killed and two others seriously wounded in
Mexico City during an attack by extremists against
students who had returned. to class. Attendance at
the National University has increased during the
week despite hard-line attempts to continue. the
strike. There has been widespread criticism of the
violence, and officials at the National University
have asked for protection for those who return to
Central Intelligence Bulletin 12
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