CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012700100001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 12, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50t",
12 December 1968
State Dept. review completed
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No, 0337/68
12 December 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Thailand: Communist guerrillas are keeping pressure
on government forces in the north-central area. (Page 3)
Czechoslovakia: A threatened railroad strike is symp-
tomatic o popular dissatisfaction (Page 4)
West Germany - Eastern Europe: Bonn apparently intends
to relax i? s po ides arT'Warsaw Pact powers o (Page 5)
Mexico: Dissident students are planning new street
e~ monstrationso (Page 6)
Ethiopia: The government intends to seek softer re-
payment terms on credits, from the Soviet Union and.
Eastern European countries. (Page 7)
Communist China: Possible high-level meeting (Page 8)
Lebanon: Terrorists (Page 9)
Pakistan: Strike (Page 9)
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C Vietnam: Communist truck traffic into the Lao-
tian Panhandle has increased for the first time since
the bombing halt, but it is about at the same level
as a year agog
On Route 15 north of the Mu Gia Pass a daily av-
erage of 16 trucks moving south was spotted in the
first seven days of December; the November average
was 11 trucks a day, On Route 912 north of Ban
Laboy, a daily average of two trucks moving south
was reported for the same period--a figure similar to
that for November. Ground observers, however, prob-
ably cannot count all the traffic moving over this
road, and traffic on it has
increased substantially,
Traffic into Laos still remains substantially
below peak levels noted in the past, If seasonal
patterns set in the past year are repeated, however,
a sharp increase in traffic should occur in late De-
cember or January. Last year?s increase was post-
poned until the last week in December as bad weather
apparently restricted traffic during the middle two
weeks of the month.
There has yet to be a rise in traffic entering
Laos to match the increase in logistics activity that
has taken place in southern North Vietnam since the
bombing halt, This activity has undoubtedly included
preparations for increasing sup p1 shipments into the
Laotian Panhandle if necessar
12 Dec 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Thai Insurgency: One Area Active, Another Quiet
I
Insurgents hit policeI !/*'
BURMA `?.
i continues .it tow level
sour?,'
VIETNAM
r -
CAMBODIA
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NORTH
VIETNAM
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Thailand: Communist-led tribal guerrillas are
keeping up pressure on government security forces
in the north-central area.
The insurgents, who successfully attacked a
government hill tribe training center last month,
have launched harassing actions against police and
military units. Well armed and aggressively led,
the guerrillas are disrupting the government's em-
bryonic village security programs in the area. Many
tribesmen have abandoned their villages, and the
government's already tenuous hold on the allegiance
of the tribal people has been weakened further.
Government reaction has been limited to spo-
radic airstrikes and piecemeal reinforcement, al-
though a new joint command headquarters under the
3rd Army has been set up in the area. The terror-
ists' attacks may spur provincial officials to start
planned civic action, but judging from the govern-
ment's performance in countering a similar problem
in adjacent northern provinces, progress will be
slow at best.
In the more strategic northeast, insurgent ac-
tivity continues at a low level. The recent defec-
tion of three guerrilla leaders underlines the Com-
munists' morale problems which stem from organiza-
tional difficulties and food shortages as well as
from government security operations.
The difficulties the insurgents have been en-
countering in the northeast may be one reason why,
they have been stepping up their effort in the north
and north-central areas. Although the Communists
probably believe that the future of the insurgency
will not be decided among the tribal people, they
may calculate that dramatic progress in those tribal
areas will provide a sense of momentum until they
get on the track in the northeast. 25X1
12 Dec 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Czechoslovakia: A threatened strike by railroad
engineers is symptomatic of the growing dissatisfac-
tion in Czechoslovakia because of the Dubcek regime's
retreat from its reform program.
The engineers stated yesterday that they made
their threat because the government had backtracked
on recognizing their union, which is trying to split
away from the parent railway organization. Their
statement had anti-Soviet overtones; it noted that
the government had allowed the union to be formed
and had even provided it offices before the Soviet
invasion. The party's main daily has already de-
nounced the threatened strike.
One of the more vocal proponents of reform,
party presidium member Josef Smrkovsky, has mean-
while had to deny rumors that he intends to resign.
The tone of Smrkovsky's denial suggests he is chal-
lenging his opponents to force him from his posts.
Dubcek's basic problem--resolving the fundamental
differences between his views and those of the Soviet
Union--was again highlighted by the contrast in the
treatment given by the Prague and Moscow press to the
25th anniversary of the Czechoslovak-Soviet treaty.
While acknowledging the "inviolability" of Prague's
alliance with Moscow, Rude Pravo stated that it ex-
pected and hoped the Soviet Union would acknowledge
Prague's endeavors to strengthen the sovereignty and
independence of Czechoslovakia. The official Soviet
statement, however, stressed that cooperation of the
two countries rested on the principles of "proleta-
rian internationalism" and the "supreme interests of
the socialist community." F77 I
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West Germany - Eastern Europe: Bonn apparently
intends to relax its policies toward the Warsaw Pact
powers that invaded Czechoslovakia.
According to the chief of the East European
section of the foreign office, West Germany favors
resuming all cultural exchanges with the Warsaw
Pact "five" as early as the beginning of the year.
Bonn has been following a restrictive policy in
line with NATO recommendations to refrain from "high
visibility" exchanges in the wake of the Czechoslo-
vak crisis.
The German official argued that the West is
denying itself a means of influencing the Eastern
Europeans and indicated that in Bonn's eyes only
the East Germans profit from the freeze. He claimed
that domestic pressures to end the freeze are grow-
ing and said that strong indications had been re-
ceived--in particular from Hungary--of a continued
interest in cultural exchanges.
12 Dec 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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Mexico: Dissident students are planning street
demonstrations in Mexico City on 13 December.
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The announced intention of the demonstrations is
to illustrate that the students have not abandoned
their demands for reform and the release of political
prisoners. Their action will be in defiance of the
National Strike Council's decision on 4 December to
end the four-and-a-half month strike. A majority of
the students have already returned to class.
Leaders of the dissident students are also re-
portedly preparing propaganda denouncing President
Diaz Ordaz for "selling out Mexico" at his scheduled
meeting with President Johnson on the same day. The
Mexican left in general, however, does not regard that
meeting, which will mark the final step in realign-
ing the Mexican-US border, as an exploitable issue.
Any substantial student agitation, coupled with
a political attack on Diaz Ordaz, could prompt a
strong government response. Prior to the strike
council's announcement, there were indications that
the Diaz Ordaz administration was preparing to take
stern measures, including closing the schools.
12 Dec 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Ethiopia: The government intends to send a
delegation to the Soviet Union and other Eastern
European countries to seek softer repayment terms
on credits.
The present terms are not unfavorable, gener-
ally calling for repayment over a 10-14- year period
after completion of the project and carrying a 2.5
percent rate of interest. Because of Ethiopia's
growing financial problems, however, they are still
too difficult for the government to meet. Ethiopia's
debt to the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia currently
amounts to about $22 million.
The total external debt of Ethiopia has risen
sharply in the last few years. Amortization and in-
terest payments for 1967 were $15.6 million or some
15 percent of Ethiopia's export earnings. Sources
of revenue have failed to increase appreciably, and
Addis Ababa is desperately seeking new ways to im-
prove its financial position. The government is
even considering taxing the airlines on all tickets
sold, retroactive to 1958. These taxes, if collected,
would bring in over $5 million, but they would se-
verely hurt the air transport business, particularly
the Ethiopian Air Lines.
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Communist China: Chief of Staff Huang Yung-sheng,
number two man in the Chinese military structure, has
cut short a visit to Albania by eight days, possibly
to attend a hastily convened meeting of top Chinese
leaders. Huang's abrupt return to Peking on 5 De-
cember went nearly unnoticed by the New China News
Agency, which normally accords heavy publicity to a
returning diplomatic emissary. These anomalies sur-
rounding Huang's return may be related to the fact
that no important national figures in Peking have
appeared publicly since late November, and several--
including Lin Piao and Mao's wife--have not made an
appearance for more than two months. Moscow radio
has been claiming that Lin is touring southwest China
trying to bring factions into line.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Lebanon: I Ihas expressed.
serious doubts that the government can continue to
block use of Lebanese territory by Palestinian ter-
rorists. He told the US ambassador the small Leb-
anese Army was doing its best but that, in the ab-
sence of an Arab-Israeli peace settlement, popular
support for the terrorists is growing. He charac-
terized the Syrian-backed terrorists as more of a
threat to Lebanon than to Israel and expressed fear
that the issue could lead to confessional strife
similar to that in the civil warfare of 1958.
Pakistan: All major opposition groups in East
Pakistan, in an unusual display of cooperation, are
reportedly backing a province-wide strike scheduled
for tomorrow. Security authorities can probably pre-
vent significant violence, but if the disparate op-
position groups prove they can work together, Presi-
dent Ayub's government faces more serious problems.
Antigovernment disturbances, which have plagued
West Pakistan since early November, spread to the
eastern province for the first time last week when
leftists initiated a series of demonstrations and
strikes to coincide with a visit there by Ayub.
12 Dec 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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