CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012900050001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 10, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
10 January 1969
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No. 0009/69
10 January 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
France: The embargo on arms to Israel has provoked
widespread domestic criticism. (Page 2)
Warsaw Pact: A pact summit meeting will convene
later t is month. (Page 3)
Panama: Five of the eight civilian cabinet members
have resigned. (Page 4)
Cambodia: Rice shortages will add to the govern-
ment's internal problems. (Page 5)
Communist China: Contests for political power in
the provinces appear to be intensifying. (Page 6)
Pakistan: Opposition elements have announced a
boycott of the 1969-1970 elections. (Page 7)
Italy: Italian officials are undecided whether
to remain in the European multirole combat aircraft
consortium. (Page 8)
Congo (Kinshasa): Personnel changes may lead to
further jockeying for power, but do not now affect
the President's position. (Page 9)
Rhodesia-Mozambique: Military cooperation (Page 11)
Chile: Public employees' strike (Page 11)
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I South Vietnam: The evidence is increasing
that the Communists are planning attacks on at
least some selected provincial capitals as part of
their next offensive.
Prisoners captured near Quang Ngai city in
northern South Vietnam claim that planning for
assaults on this provincial capital is in the
final stages. Recently captured documents also
reveal plans for sapper attacks on Qui Nhon on the
coast. There is still no good indication of the
nature of these attacks or evidence that the ac-
tions will be coordinated, but most of the reports
indicate that in these areas the Communists could
move before the end of the month.
On 8-9 January, the Communists fired mortars
at several airfields and allied field positions
in the highlands of II Corps, inflicting light
damage. The heaviest ground fighting occurred
along the Song Be infiltration corridor and in
the vicinity of Loc Ninh, near the Cambodian bor-
der. (Map) 7
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France: The total embargo on arms and spare
parts to Israel has provoked widespread domestic
criticism, but this pressure is unlikely to end
the embargo.
De Gaulle's decision was almost certainly a
unilateral one, taken with even greater-than-usual
disregard for his ministers. Cabinet members, in-
cluding Foreign Minister Debre, were not consulted,
and many of them are strongly opposed to the gen-
eral's action. The great majority of officials
at the Foreign Ministry disagree with De Gaulle
over the decision, and at least one has described
it as "an act of madness."
Only Communist and Gaullist newspapers have
reacted favorably to the expansion of the embargo.
The French minister of information, possibly in
an effort to counter press criticism, has claimed
that Israel's influence on the French press
strong.
It here is It a expec-
tation that De Gaulle will be challenged effec-
tively by those who oppose the decision.
De Gaulle is genuinely concerned that war
will again flare up in the Middle East unless some
progress is made toward a settlement, but the em-
bargo also serves to align his policies with those
of the Soviets. French press sources comment that
the decision to expand the embargo--which coin-
cided with the opening of the French-Soviet eco-
nomic and scientific talks in Paris--demonstrates
in a "striking manner" De Gaulle's agreement with
Moscow on the Middle East. France has pronounced
the Soviet memorandum on the Middle East "accept-
able in its general lines," but reiterated the
need for four-power agreement. Paris may hope
that Moscow will now lend further support to French
efforts for concerted "big four" action.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Warsaw Pact: A pact summit meeting will con-
vene later this month, according to Rumanian of-
ficials.
Plans for a combined exercise in Rumania dur-
ing 1969 presumably will be considered at the
meeting, reportedly to be held in Warsaw. It may
also deal with questions concerning the Council of
Economic Mutual Assistance. Bucharest can expect
to come under Soviet pressure to tie itself more
closely to bloc organizations, but the Rumanians
say they expect to "come out all right" from the
meeting.
The Soviet position on bloc discipline, mean-
while, has been set out again in a major Soviet
party newspaper which criticizes states that put
national development ahead of "united action with
the entire socialist community." Rumania was not
named specifically, but a Rumanian journalist has
indicated that the message came hrough to Bucha-
rest.
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C Panama: At least five of the eight civilian
cabinet me ers have resigned, accusing military
leaders of clamping the country under a dictator-
ship.
The cabinet break apparently followed a week-
long dispute with the national guard leadership
over delineation of ministerial authority. The
ministers reportedly were dissatisfied with the
interference of guard leaders Torrijos and Martinez
in day-to-day administration. The guard may have
been preparing to fire the ministers, presumably
to appoint more pliable officials.
The cabinet members have denounced the junta
for imposing measures "which affect liberty and
security of persons, and that also will have nega-
tive consequences on the national economy." Re-
cent arrests, strict censorship, and the closure
of one major newspaper have led to growing uneasi-
ness, particularly in the business community which
fears that it may become the next target of the
guard's actions.
I the new
civilian cabinet appointees are not believed to
have ties to the country's entrenched oligarchy.
This suggests that key guard leaders are trying
to accelerate their self-proclaimed "revolution-
ary" reforms. If the colonels are breaking with
the traditional elite, their next step will prob-
ably be an attempt to erect an independent power
base.
While generally unrelated, another clash oc-
curred yesterday morning between supporters of
ousted president Arias and Panamanian military ele-
ments near the Costa Rican border. Two guardsmen
reportedly were killed in this skirmish, the first
noted in recent week
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Cambodia: Impending rice shortages will add
to the government's already substantial internal
problems.
the recen 1 1, roug , in
combination With a marked cutback in planting,
will lead to a ser? us reduction in rice produc-
tion. the current crop will yield
one thir ss than last year's crop. In addition,
there will be a serious shortage of
es wa er fish, the country's secondary staple.
remedial steps taken by the govern-
ment have been too little and too late.
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rince Sihanouk has also
warned of an extensive reduction. Cambodia should,
however, be able to weather expected losses by
reducing exports and falling back on reserves from
last year's record crop.
Nevertheless, Cambodia appears to be in for
an economic squeeze it can ill afford in the face
of countrywide dissidence. If a major food short-
age occurs, economic dissatisfaction in the prov-
inces could well grow to more serious proportions.
The situation, however, may bring additional pres-
sure on the government to accelerate programs to
improve the lethargic economy. Phnom Penh recently
decided, for instance, to seek more actively badly
needed f
i
ore
gn investment and participation in
international economic rganizations.
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Communist China: Political struggle at the
provincial level appears to be intensifying as
preparations for the ninth party congress go for-
ward. The problems could force a delay in hold-
ing the party congress, which has been tentatively
set for early spring.
In at least three provinces, officials who had
been confirmed in their positions by Peking have
been denounced in radiobroadcasts and presumably
dismissed or demoted. Thus far the major casualty
has apparently been Sinkiang's longtime military
and political leader, Wand En-mao--the target of
repeated attacks by radical forces earlier in the
Cultural Revolution. He had survived those attacks
to retain key positions in the new revolutionary
government formed in Sinkiang last September.
Factional political conflicts have been tak-
ing place in at least four other provinces, accord-
ing to posters seen in Peking by Western diplomats
in the past two months. Some posters criticize
provincial leaders still in official favor. Such
posters representing partisan interests were often
displayed during the peak of the Cultural Revolu-
tion but were rarely seen in the period of stabi-
lization last fall.
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Pakistan: Eight opposition parties have an-
nounced the formation of a united movement and
vowed to boycott the 1969-70 elections under the
present indirect electoral system.
Opposition leaders had been conferring in
East Pakistan since 3 January. Their formal state-
ment, establishing a unified Democratic Action Com-
mittee, was necessarily couched in general terms
to satisfy all participants. It called for a re-
turn to the parliamentary system, the institution
of direct universal suffrage, and the restoration
of various civil liberties. Conspicuous for their
absence from the meeting were the traditionally
independent pro-Peking leftists and the People's
Party of ex - Foreign Minister Bhutto. These
groups may join the antigovernment grouping later.
The Democratic Action Committee reportedly
plans to stage nationwide marches and demonstra-
tions beginning 17 January. Members will meet
again in March to decide on further measures to
keep the pressure on the government. The real
test of unity will come, however, when the commit-
tee moves beyond general agitation to specific
political decisions.
Despite the committee's announcement of an
election boycott, informed sources indicate that
the agitation is primarily designed to force the
government to change the electoral ground rules
and permit a fair contest. A number of opposition
leaders are keeping themselves available as poten-
tial presidential candidates in the unlikely event
that President Avub should agree to direct elec-
tions.
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Italy: Italian military and civilian leaders
are undecided whether to remain in the European
consortium to build the multirole combat aircraft
(MRCA).
The MRCA program--initiated in July 1968 by
West Germany, the UK, Italy, and the Netherlands--
has encountered many obstacles. An agreement has
not yet been reached on financing the project or
on sharing production. The West Germans and the
British have, however, agreed to work independently
on a basic design and on project financing for the
plane. Consequently, two versions, both of which.
will be swing-wing, will be developed, one in each
country.
Italy is still attending meetings of the con-
sortium, even though many Italian Air Force offi-
cials argue that the MRCA is a more sophisticated
aircraft than Italy needs. These officials be-
lieve that unilateral production of a domestic
aircraft, with help in planning and design from an
American company, would better fill the needs of
the Italian Air Force. In addition to having an
aircraft that was designed solely for them, an
Italian aircraft, they contend, would bolster the
country's prestige and provide additional work for
domestic aircraft industries. Other options open
to Italy include the purchase of a simpler air-
craft, possibly a stripped-down version of the US
F-4, or a cooperative venture with
such as France.
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Congo (Kinshasa): Recent key personnel changes
by President Mobutu may lead to further jockeying
for power, but do not now affect the President's
position.
On 7 January, Mobutu dismissed Sure.te chief
Singa and Defense Ministry cabinet chief Malila
and reassigned them as military attaches outside
the country. Both men are proteges of the power-
ful finance minister, Victor Nendaka. Whatever
Mobutu's motives, the result appears to be an im-
portant readjustment of the power balance among
officials in the central government. Nendaka and
his colleagues from Orientale Province have lost
ground to the rival group from Equateur led by
Foreign Minister Bomboko and army commander in
chief Louis Bobozo.
Nendaka claims that the dismissals add these
two important army officers to the ranks of the
regime's opponents and may create future problems.
Nendaka has openly professed his continuing loyalty
to and support of Mobutu, but can be expected to
maneuver behind the scenes to recoup his own posi-
tion and particularly undermine Bobozo.
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Rhodesian Air Support Given Portuguese in Mozambique Operations
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Rhodesia-Mozambique: Portuguese military forces
in Moza ique are now receiving direct tactical sup-
port from Rhodesia. For at least the last two months,
Rhodesian Canberra bombers reportedly have been car-
rying out regular air strikes in conjunction with Por-
tuguese ground operations in the northern Tete region.
Although the two authorities have cooperated before
in antiguerrilla sweeps along their mutual border,
this is the first known use of Rhodesian aircraft
to bolster Portuguese military units inside Mozam-
bique itself. (Map) 25X1
Chile: The Communist-sponsored public employ-
ees strike on 8 and 9 January received only limited
support, despite its endorsement by the labor de-
partment of President Frei's Christian Democratic
Party. The party leadership disavowed this endorse-
ment, and the failure of the strike has probably
strengthened the position of party moderates in the
campaign for the congressional elections in March.
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