CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012900060001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 11, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
60
11 January 1969
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No. 0010/69
11 January 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Sweden - North Vietnam: Stockholm's decision to
recognize North Vietnam was prompted by domestic
political considerations. (Page 2)
Japan: Press and political reactions are hostile
to the idea of concessions on US bases in Okinawa.
(Page 3
Philippines: Huk losses in a recent police action
are a serious setback. (Page 5)
Indonesia: Economic prospects are boosted by the
offshore discovery of oil by an American company.
(Page 6)
India: An impressive victory of a Congress Party
leer in a recent by-election may have important
political consequences. (Page 7)
USSR: Space research (Page 8)
Cuba-USSR: Uranium reactor (Page 8)
Dominican Republic: General Wessin's return (Page 9)
Colombia: Student demonstrations (Page 9)
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C Vietnam: Military action in South Vietnam was
limited to scattered small-unit clashes and light
Communist shellings of allied installations on 9-10
January.
North Vietnamese truck traffic into Laos con-
tinues at the relatively brisk pace expected during
the dry season. A roadwatch team on North Vietnam's
Route 15 through the Mu Gia Pass spotted an average
of 25 trucks a day moving south during the first
seven days of January. An average of 21 trucks a
day was observed in December.
In addition, a new and shorter truck route from
North Vietnam around the western end of the Demili-
tarized Zone and connected with the roadnet in the
Laotian Panhandle is nearing completion. Since the
bombing halt last autumn, almost 20 miles of new
road have been built and only 10 miles need to be
finished before a crude but continuous route is
completed. The new route would shorten the trip
through the Laotian Panhandle by some 60 to 70 miles
and thus reduce the time trucks are exposed to US
bombings. I J(Map)
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Sweden - North Vietnam: Stockholm's decision
to recognize North Vietnam is probably in large
part the result of internal political pressures.
The government's own Social Democratic support-
ers have pressed it for several years to break re-
lations with Saigon and to recognize Hanoi. For-
eign Minister Nilsson in particular has been sub-
jected to constant demands from the far-left Stock-
holm party organization of which he is president.
This explains in part his 1967 decision, contrary
to the advice of his officials, to withdraw accred-
itation to Saigon from the Swedish ambassador resi-
dent in Thailand. Since that time there have been
sporadic statements hinting at recognition of Hanoi,
but Stockholm declined to take the step, contending
it would compromise Sweden's prospects as a poten-
tial mediator.
The Foreign Ministry communique announcing the
decision maintained that the move was prompted by
the need to establish official relations with the
two Vietnams in order to advance Nordic plans to
help in postwar reconstruction. The Nordic nations,
in collaboration with the International Red Cross,
have been studying since 1967 ways to provide hu-
manitarian aid to Vietnam after the end of the war.
Sweden in particular has been planning postwar eco-
nomic aid to the two Vietnams.
The timing of Stockholm's announcement appears
to be linked to the opening of Parliament on 13 Jan-
uary, the impending change in the US administration,
and the desire of the Swedes to be in the forefront
of international efforts to bring peace to Vietnam.
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Japan: The government apparently is trying
to condition Japanese public opinion to accept
concessions on American bases in Okinawa as the
price for an early return of the island. The ef-
forts have drawn strong critical reactions, how-
ever.
In a Tokyo press conference on 6 January,
the Japanese ambassador to the US candidly stated
that the US cannot accept a reversion agreement
that imposes the restrictions on Okinawan bases
that apply to US bases in Japan--prohibition of
nuclear weapons and advance consultations prior
to any major force deployments. Ambassador
Shimoda urged a compromise that would assign to
the Okinawan bases a special status preserving
their value as part of the American deterrent in
the Far East.
This trial balloon has evoked harsh criti-
cism from all four opposition parties, the Jap-
anese news media, and all shades of the political
spectrum in Okinawa. The government will face
strong challenges on this question in the Diet,
which is expected to reconvene late this month.
1 -1
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(Tndonesia)
Filipino Police Action Deals Setback to Rebel Group
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Philippines: Huk losses in a police action on
9 January may be the most serious setback to the
rebel organization since the early 1950s.
The engagement is believed to have involved
regional leaders from Huk strongholds in central
Luzon who had assembled for a top-level meeting.
The third-ranked Huk was among 17 rebels killed;
three were captured. The Huk hard core--numbering
only about 150 operating in scattered squads--was
already in some disarray from internal squabbling
and earlier police campaigns.
The demonstration of the ability of the con-
stabularly to cope with the rebels will help blunt
public criticism of President Marcos over "ncr
ing Huk depredations.
(map)
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Indonesia: Prospects for increasing petro-
leum exports, currently Djakarta's chief source
of foreign exchange, have been boosted by the off-
shore discovery of oil by an American company.
This is the second offshore oil strike in re-
cent months as exploratory operations by foreign
countries get under way. Nearly 20 foreign con-
tractors have signed exploration and development
contracts with Indonesia since 1966, when the Su-
harto government reversed Sukarno's policy of na-
tionalization and harassment of foreign companies.
Djakarta is counting on increased earnings of
hard currency from oil to play a major role in re-
habilitating the Indonesian economy. Its oil pro-
duction, which averaged almost 600,000 barrels a
da
last
y
year, is expected to exceed one million
barrel
a ___
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by
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India: An impressive victory by former Con-
gress Party president K. Kamaraj in a recent par-
liamentary by-election may have important political
consequences both in his native Madras State and
in New Delhi.
The victory is of major importance for Kam-
araj--a Congress Party stalwart and opponent of
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi--who has been seeking
a comeback since his humiliating defeat in the
1967 general election. It is also a boost for
the Madras unit of the Congress Party, which was
also badly defeated in 1967. High-ranking members
of the governing Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)
put their prestige on the line in trying to defeat
Kamaraj, and his massive victory--over twice as
many votes as his major opponent--may influence
important upcoming state municipal elections.
The DMK Madras State government will probably
be subject to much rougher opposition if Kamaraj,
on the strength of his electoral triumph, succeeds
in regaining control of the local Congress Party
unit. Kamaraj favors more agitation within the
state and a more aggressive approach by New Delhi.
During the by-election campaign it was widely
rumored that Kamaraj would be included in the na-
tional cabinet if he won. Although his seniority
and power position within the Congress Party na-
tional hierarchy qualify him for such a post, his
long-standing conflict with Mrs. Gandhi will prob-
ably rule out a major portfolio. In any event,
his latent distrust of the United States, which
apparently was strengthened following his elec-
toral defeat in 1967, may be reflected in future
parliamentary debates.
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NOTES
USSR: The Soviets are enlarging their Insti-
tute for Space Research in an effort to revitalize
their nonmilitary space program. They presumably
hope to achieve greater centralization and better
over-all planning and guidance. The institute,
formed in 1965, reportedly will employ several
thousand people and be housed in a large, new
multistory building in Moscow. Several hundred
people now work for the institute in a number of
locations scattered around the city. In the past,
rigid security measures imposed by the military
have hampered space research and development.
Formation of the new institute could lead to some
relaxation of security and to greater civilian
participation in Soviet space programs.
Cuba-USSR: Havana has announced that last
year the Soviet Union delivered to Cuba a "sub-
critical uranium reactor" which will be used "for
experimental and instructional purposes." A "sub-
critical reactor" does not produce fissionable
material and therefore cannot contribute to a
nuclear weapons program. An agreement to deliver
the reactor and various related facilities was
signed by representatives of the two countries in
September 1967. The provisions of the agreement
made possible the establishment of Cuba's Insti-
tute of Nuclear Physics which was inaugurated this
week at the town of Managua, just south of Havana,
in the presence of Soviet Deputy Premier Novikov.
(continued)
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Dominican Republic: General Wessin, a key
leader of the regular military during the 1965 re-
volt who has been in exile in the US for over three
years, is planning to return to his homeland tomor-
row. Although the government has banned any mass
demonstration, Wessin's supporters have called for
"a large, enthusiastic and orderly welcome."
Wessin, who claims he will not engage in conspira-
torial activity, will pose no immediate danger to
President Balaguer, but some of his backers seem
sure to try to involve him in intrigue.
Colombia: Communist-inspired student demon-
strations against recent increases in bus fares
and utility rates have forced the government to
send troops to take over the southwestern indus-
trial city of Cali, and military officers fear the
protests may spread to other areas. Orthodox and
extremist Communist groups are competing for in-
fluence among Colombian students and have been in-
volved in other recent university disturbances in
Cali. Communist-controlled labor unions there
have called for a province-wide strike on 22 Jan-
uary.
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
The United States Intelligence Board, on 10
January 1969, approved the following national in-
telligence estimate:
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Secret
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