CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A013400060001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 3, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
501,
3 April 1969
State Dept. review completed
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No. 0080/69
3 April 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia: The Dubcek leadership is embroiled
in its most serious political crisis since the in-
vasion. (Page 2)
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India-Pakistan: Indian leaders have expressed a
policy of noninterference despite their concern over
developments in Pakistan. (Page 5)
Somali Re ublic: The Somali Youth League continues
to control the National Assembly as expected follow-
ing elections. (Page 6)
Latin America: Preparatory meetings to formulate
a common position on trade and development are under
way. (Page 7)
Syria: Baathist reorganization (Page 8)
Iran: Fire loss slight (Page 8)
Chile: Students (Page 8)
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Demilitarized Zone
TI-2- `
AVERAGE STRENGTH
OF ENEMY UNITS
Battalion:
VC
200-400
NVA
300-500
Regiment:
VC
1,000-1,500
NVA
1,200-2,000
Division:
VC
5,000-7,000
NVA
5,000-8,000
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C South Vietnam: The communists again conducted
widespread harassing shellings against allied posi-
tions on 1-2 April, but the level of enemy activity
remained low.
Heavy losses were inflicted on enemy forces
in a few significant ground actions, however.
Northwest of Saigon some 49 enemy troops were re-
ported killed in an abortive assault against a US
Army position. South Korean forces reportedly
killed 113 Communists in a sharp battle in Ninh
Thuan Province and South Vietnamese troops inflicted
similar casualties on Viet Cong units in a series
of engagements in the Mekong Delta.
There are some signs that the Communists are
trying to prolong the current offensive by rotating
forces in and out of active combat zones. Northwest
of Saigon, for example, prisoners say that the
North Vietnamese 141st Regiment has withdrawn to a
base area and been replaced in the vicinity of the
Michelin Plantation by elements from the North.Viet-
namese 165th Regiment.
3 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Czechoslovakia: The Dubcek leadership is em-
broiled in its most serious political crisis since
the invasion as a result of anti-Soviet demonstra-
tions over the weekend.
The central government in Prague threatened on
2 April to impose pre-censorship on those publica-
tions that do not adhere to party guidelines. It
also reaffirmed that the Czechoslovak Army would
back up the security forces in combating further
demonstrations.
At an "extraordinary session" on 1 April, the
party presidium gave broad authority to the Inte-
rior Ministry to arrest "the organizers" of last
week's nationwide demonstrations. This is a clear
bow to the Soviets, who have refused to accept the
original Czechoslovak contention that the demonstra-
tions were spontaneous.
The presidium acknowledged that it was a "mis-
take" not to suppress past dissidence, which it de-
scribed as "antisocialist," and stated that hence-
forth it will take action against those who imperil
Prague's alliance with Moscow.
This statement criticized the antiparty conduct
of certain central committee members, including pre-
sidium member Josef Smrkovsky, the only remaining
progressive in the party leadership.
The presidium also decided to crack down on
the country's maverick press.for "arousing... anti-
Soviet hysteria,," It suspended the party central
committee weekly Politika for "grave political er-
rors" and threatened act n against other publica-
tions that have been circumventing censorship regu-
lations. Two weeklies with anti-Soviet reputations
which were scheduled to appear yesterday apparently
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were confiscated. The party leadership even criti-
cized its own daily, Rude Pravo, for failure to at-
tack "views alien to 'Socialism," and threatened to
call to account "all Communist journalists."
The leadership's new crackdown is its most
dramatic response to civil disturbances since the
invasion, but is nevertheless, under the circum-
stances, a moderate first reaction. It may, how-
ever, provoke trade unionists and students, who re-
gard Smrkovsky as the symbol of their hopes and who
are united in their opposition to further admini-
strative restrictions. Much will depend on how
sternly the presidium's decisions are implemented.
Wholesale arrests of those who took part in the
anti-Soviet demonstrations or any punitive actions
a ainst dissidents could brin about a new crisis.
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India-Pakistan: Indian leaders are apprehen-
sive about political developments in Pakistan but
have emphasized New Delhi's policy of noninterfer-
ence.
New Delhi's "hands-off" policy toward Pakistan
was made explicit in a recent parliamentary state-
ment by the foreign minister, who maintained the
Pakistanis alone must decide their form of govern-
ment. Although most Indian officials would proba-
bly have preferred to see Ayub remain in office
with military support, their primary concern is for
the emergence of a stable Pakistan, even at Ayub's
expense. From the Indian viewpoint, however, mili-
tary rule is an unpromising antidote for Pakistan's
problems, and prevailing Indian sentiment is for
the resumption of constitutional government as soon
as possible.
Indian officials are particularly concerned
about Rawalpindi's ability to resolve grievances
in East Pakistan. Prolonged chaos there could have
an unsettling effect on the neighboring Indian state
of West Bengal and encourage contacts between left-
ist elements in that state and in East Pakistan.
Further, New Delhi is concerned that substantial
autonomy for East Pakistan could stimulate separa-
tist sentiment in West Bengal where New Delhi's
control has been weakened by the recent defeat of
the Congress Party in state elections and the in-
stallation of a government dominated by Communists.
Indian leaders are pessimistic that significant
headway will be made toward settling outstanding
Indo-Pakistani issues in the next year or two. Both
countries agree that slight progress was made in
recently concluded bilateral talks on the long-
standing problem of sharing the flow of the Ganges
River, and another round of secretarial discussions
on technical data is scheduled for July. New Delhi
is still unwilling, however, to set a date for the
ministerial-level talks for which Pakistan has been
pressing.
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Somali Republic: The Somali Youth League (SYL)
party continues to control the National Assembly
following the national election on 26 March.
Complete returns--subject to possible appeals
by defeated candidates--gave the SYL 75 of the 123
parliamentary seats that were contested. The So-
cialist National. Congress, a long established but
relatively weak party, became the second largest
party in parliament, although it won only 11 seats.
The Democratic Action Party of former SYL prime
minister Abdirazak, which some believed might chal-
lenge the SYL, did poorly; only Abdirazak and one
other candidate were returned. The rest of the
seats were scattered among a number of minor parties,
many of whose deputies probably will cross over to
the SYL and increase that party's majority.
It appears likely that Prime Minister Egal will
be reappointed by President Scermarche to form a
new cabinet, The defeat of several incumbent minis-
ters, however, probably means that Egal will need
some time to complete the complicated bargaining
process required, to form a tribally balanced cabi-
net acceptable to the al Assembly.
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Latin America: Preparatory meetings to form-
ulate a common position on trade and development
are under way.
The Special Committee for Latin American Eco-
nomic Coordination (CECLA) began its "expert level"
meeting in Santiago, Chile, on 31 March. CECLA is
an exclusively Latin American organization which
in essence is a caucus for coordinating Latin Amer-
ica's economic, commercial, and monetary policies
for international conferences, particularly those
attended by industrialized nations.
In the past, CECLA has played an influential
role in unifying the Latin American position on
trade and development, but it has also been used
as a forum to criticize the US. During this par-
ticular meeting, US policy toward Peru will prob-
ably be discussed extensively.
The present meeting developed from the Organ-
ization of American States' desire to formulate a
common position on trade and development in re-
sponse to President Nixon's interest. Originally,
a ministerial-level meeting was scheduled for March,
but that meeting has been postponed until the out-
come of the Peru-US negotiations over the Interna-
tional Petroleum Company is known. This preliminary
meeting will last until 8 April and will prepare an
agenda for the higher level meeting, which will
probably take place in mid-May.
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NOTES
Syria: The military-dominated Baathist regime
in Damascus has apparently once again been able to
meld competing factions within the party into an
uneasy coalition. The new leaders of the Syrian
Baath Party? who were announced on 31 March after
protracted secret party meetings, are about equally
divided between the two major party factions. De-
fense Minister Hafiz Asad, who recently became the
chief power figure in the country, probably remains
in control, but infighting will inevitably continue
despite this week's compromise.
Iran: Loss of production resulting from the
fire at the Western oil consortium's pumping station
at Gurreh will not be serious. Several emergency
measures have restored the flow of crude to the
Kharg Island terminal, which handles all consortium
crude exports, to 90 percent of current levels.
Use of a standby pumping unit and the temporary
reopening of a subsidiary terminal will bring the
export capacity back to the pre-fire level within
a few days, and by the end of April a surplus ca-
pacity may be achieved.
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Chile: Serious trouble could break out during
the next two weeks if students pursue their plans
to take over university buildings and block streets
in Santiago. Minister of Interior Perez Zujovic,
the major proponent within the government of a hard
line on law and order, plans to send police forces
into the university at the slightest provocation.
He particularly mentioned student attempts to oc-
cupy buildings. Any confrontation between students
and police would aggravate internal problems of
President F'rei's Christian Democratic Party, which
is currently split over the extent to which it should
support demonstrators against the police.
I
3 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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