CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T00975A013500020001-9
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RIPPUB
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T
Document Page Count: 
15
Document Creation Date: 
December 15, 2016
Document Release Date: 
December 15, 2003
Sequence Number: 
1
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Publication Date: 
April 12, 1969
Content Type: 
REPORT
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Approved Rod Release 2004/01/15: CIA-RDP79T0ft6A0135 25X1 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin State Dept. review completed Secret 51 12 April 1969 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A013500020001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13500020001-9 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13500020001-9 Approved P Release 2004/(MCR$CPDP79T009*6A013500020001-9 No. 0088/69 12 April 1969 Central Intelligence Bulletin CONTENTS Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1) Czechoslovakia-USSR: The Soviets are keeping up pressure in anticipation of the coming Czechoslovak plenum. (Page 2) Rumania: Ceausescu apparently is tightening his control and supervision of the economy. (Page 4) USSR: The merchant fleet continues to expand but does not pose a serious challenge to Free World shipping. (Page 5) Nationalist China: President Chiang has taken steps to strengthen Kuomintang policy making machinery. (Page 6) South Korea - Okinawa: Seoul is concerned that re- version of Okinawa to Japan will impair US ability to aid in Korea's defense. (Page 7) Turkey: A rash of student strikes may herald a new wave of unrest. (Page 8) Morocco-USSR: Rabat apparently balanced the effects of President Podgorny's recent visit with pro- Western gestures. (Page 9) USSR-Rumania: Manescu's visit to Moscow (Page 10) Chile: Presidential election maneuvering (Page 10) Approved For Release 2004/Tp- . fDP79T00975A013500020001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13500020001-9 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13500020001-9 Approved P*&Release 2004/IE($R DP79T00WA013500020001-9 C Vietnam: A surge in Communist military activ- ity occurred in the southern half of the country on 11 April. Heavy enemy action in III and IV Corps again consisted of widespread spellings with no signifi- cant ground follow-up. At least 20 separate rocket and mortar attacks occurred in III Corps, with al- lied positions near the provincial capital of Tay Ninh among the hardest hit. Particularly heavy damage and casualties to allied personnel were caused by Communist shellings of a major base near Tay Ninh city. Enemy activity also increased markedly in IV Corps, where four provincial capitals and at least eight district towns were shelled. The heaviest civilian casualties occurred in Vinh Long city when Communist mortar rounds hit a central market area. 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004/Rjjj6R RDP79T00975A013500020001-9 Approved For Relelse 2004TV~ DP79T00975AM500020001-9 Czechoslovakia-USSR: The Soviets are keeping up pressure on the leadership in Prague in antici- pation of the opening of a party plenum there on 17 April? The presence in Prague of Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Semenov, may be intended to emphasize that the Soviets are unwilling to tolerate the Dubcek leadership's procrastination in carrying out their demands. He probably is prodding the leadership to make certain that the central committee endorses literally Moscow's demands to ensure control of the situation. At the plenum, the central committee will debate the measures--some reportedly still se- cret--and presumably will endorse them, particularly since they already have been accepted by the presidium. The Soviets seem to be playing a role in the precautions taken by the Czechoslovaks to avert strikes that have been threatened over several is- sues. Semenov met with tirade union chief Polacek yesterday, probably in an attempt to figure out the position of the liberal unions in respect to new re- strictive domestic measures. If the workers stage a general strike when planned price hikes are an- nounced, the students and other sectors of the pop- ulation might join them. One Soviet objective may be to coordinate security measures with the Czechoslovaks in case the situation should get out of hand. Meanwhile, the Dubcek leadership may have worked out a compromise that will avert a strike which stu- dents in Prague threatened to call because of press 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A013500020001-9 SECRET Approved F rRelease 2004/SE 1LRDP79T00S A013500020001-9 censorship. The students have announced that they will hold only a relatively harmless one-day "teach- in"--a solution that may be acceptable to the Rus- sians. There are widespread rumors that some top party leaders, including Dubcek and the popular progres- sive;,,Josef Smrkovsky, will be ousted at the forth- coming plenum. The Russians allegedly are pressing for Smrkovsky's removal, even though they are aware that this action, as well as other retrogressive measures, could generate a new crisis. 25X1 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004/jRDP79T00975A013500020001-9 Approved For R eak 4j se 2004/(MC, gRDP79T00975Al 5500020001-9 Rumania: Party and. government chief Ceausescu appears to be tightening his direct control and supervision of the economy. Last month the government's Economic Council was elevated to the level of a quasi-superministry reporting directly to Ceausescu and the newly strengthened State Council.. The Economic Council evidently will have broad authority to oversee party and government policies in the economic sphere. Rumania's leaders have stressed that although the economy does not need basic structural reform, it does require administrative and organizational streamlining to increase efficiency. In 1967 Ruma- nia embarked on a program of limited experimentation with an expanded role for managers in selected in- dustrial enterprises. The results, however; have been mixed and generally negative, which may have caused Ceausescu and other officials to re-evaluate their economic policies. The program outlined in 1967 also included a proposal for the creation of "industrial centrals," or amalgamations of enterprises within a given in- dustry or within a specific geographic area. It now appears that industrial centrals will be created on a gradual and experimental basis. It was hoped that the centrals would be better able to supervise industrial operations. The just- published statutes for guiding the centrals' opera- tions indicate, however, that they will act mainly as a watchdog for central government ministr;PG 25X1 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004 I-RDP79T00975A013500020001-9 Approved F Release 2004/ 9 ATRDP79T009 A013500020001-9 USSR: The Soviet merchant fleet is continuing to expand, but it does not pose a serious challenge to Free World shipping in the near future. According to Soviet Merchant Marine Minister Bakayev, the USSR's maritime fleet is expected to grow by more than 50 percent between 1970 and 1975. Although the fleet's tonnage has tripled during the past decade, its rate of growth has slowed from an annual rate of increase of 21 percent in 1964 to 7 percent last year. The fleet now totals 10.5 to 11 million deadweight tons. The USSR probably will not reach its Five-Year Plan (1966-70) goal of a fleet of 13 million dead- weight tons unless deliveries from domestic ship- yards and purchases from the Free World and Eastern Europe increase considerably this year and next. At the present rate of deliveries, achievement of Bakayev's 1975 target--at least 17 million dead- weight tons--is unlikely. Even if this goal should be attained, the USSR would move only from seventh to sixth or fifth posi- tion in the rank of national fleets, displacing Greece and possibly the US, whose fleet tonnage is declining. The leading Free World fleets, including the Japanese, Norwegian and Liberian--a flag of convenience for US and other Free World owners--are growing faster than that of the USSR. The ability of the Soviet fleet to compete with Free World shipping is limited by the USSR's lack of supertankers, large bulk carriers and container ships. The Soviet fleet is designed primarily to meet Soviet port conditions and to carry Soviet trade. Close to 50 percent of the USSR's seaborne foreign trade has moved on foreign carriers since 1964. By 1970 this figure may decline to 40 percent. 25X1 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004/(8BC:J]' DP79T00975A013500020001-9 Approved For Release 2004/OgVfj* DP79T00975A6'3500020001-9 Nationalist China: LIP-resident Chiang's recent moves to revitalize the leading organ of the Kuo- mintang appear designed both to strengthen the party's policymaking machinery and to prepare the way for his chosen successQr At the Kuomintang's recent tenth congress, Chiang named six new members to the central stand- ing committee, the party's senior policymaking body. Most of them are young, economist-oriented technocrats. The virtual exclusion of such ex- perts in the past contributed to a gradual decline in the committee's importance and reinforced the government's emphasis on military priorities at the expense of economic investment and growth. Chiang's action may reflect a recognition that is son and chosen successor, Defense Min- ister Chiang Ching-kuo, will not be able to com- mand the unchallenged authority that the General- issimo possesses. President Chiang apparently believes the presence of a group of energetic and competent officials in top policymaking posi- tions will help balance the influence of old-line Kuomintang hierarchs and. enhance the regime's abil- ity to deal with pressing economic problem The President. also used the party congress to announce his decision, to abolish the post of party deputy director-general, which many members had assumed would go to his son. Chiang probably wished to avoid not only the "dynastic" implica- tions of appointing his son to this post but also the potential risk of creating a challenger to an orderly succession if someone else had to be named. The President, in any event, appears confident that Chiang Ching-kuo already has sufficient control of the party, military, and s rit apparatus to as- sure a smooth transition. 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/~1 4fRDP79T00975A013500020001-9 Approved F elease 2004/0$ I~;IVi DP79T00S&RA013500020001-9 South Korea Okinawa: Seoul is showing con- cern that the reversion of Okinawa to Japanese con- trol may impair the usefulness of US bases there for the defense of Koren President Pak's government has formally re- quested that it be fully consulted by the US re- garding any change in the present status of the Ryukyuan Island chain, of which Okinawa is a part. An aide memoire handed to the US ambassador on 8 April asserts that the island's "indispensable" role in the defense of the area makes its disposi- tion a matter of concern to more than just the US and Japan. The South Koreans have made a similar repre- sentation to the Japanese Government. An aide memoire handed the Japanese ambassador on 10 April did not refer directly to the reversion problem but stressed the hope that nothing would be done to reduce the strategic value of the Okinawa bases. Subsequently the foreign minister suggested to the Chinese Nationalists that Seoul and Taipei along with other concerned goy rnments work out a joint approach to the Japanese LT-h Tokyo government understands the Koreans' strategic interest in Okinawa. Prime Minister Sato, however, is not likely to be greatly influenced by South Korean representations although the Foreign Ministry probably will quietly try to soothe Korean fears. Sato will continue to respond primarily to the considerable internal political pressures on the Okinawa J_ssue as well as to Japanese se urit interests 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2004/8$C:RJ'DP79T00975A013500020001-9 Approved For Release 2004/0/VAt*DP79T00975A1"'3500020001-9 Turkey: The rash of student strikes spreading across Turkey may herald a new wave of student un- rest and violence. Although the strikes appear to be prompted by the slow pace of academic reform since the student strikes of last spring, leftist youth leaders have been quick to exploit the situation to revitalize their anti-American campaign. Some striking stu- dents appear to be weakening, however, in the face of an ultimatum that at least one university will be closed unless the students end their occupation of university buildings by tomorrow. As the campaign for the national elections next fall gets under way, the tone of student action will almost certainly become more antiregime with anti- American overtones. Several clashes between student extremist groups have occurred, during which a va- riety of weapons, including revolvers and molotov cocktails, were used,according to the press. 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/0-1 ,5,R DP79T00975A013500020001-9 Approved F**.Release 2004kbQMPTRDP79T0099OA013500020001-9 Morocco-USSR: Moscow may derive some po- tential benefits from President Podgorny's re- cent visit to Rabat, but Moroccan officials ap- pear to have balanced the effects of his tour with pro-Western gestures. Most Western diplomats in Rabat believe that the Podgorny visit improved the popular image of the Soviet Union and even of Commu- nism, which has had little reality for most Moroccans. For his part, King Hassan may have received no immediate tangible benefits, but there is at least a possibility for increased Soviet economic aid, and even military aid. Speculation that new major economic projects were discussed cannot be confirmed. Podgorny's open appeal to the Moroccan people over the head of the monarchy may have deepened the government's suspicions regard- ing Soviet intentions. The Soviet counselor reportedly has protested the Moroccan press' handling of the visit. Also, the basic pro- Western preferences of the King and his gov- ernment were pointed up by Morocco's signing an accord for associate membership with the EEC on the eve of Podgorny's arrival, and by recent visits by high-level Italian and West German economic delegations, 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/( RDP79T00975A013500020001-9 Approved For Reolease 2004/R5RCRDP79T00975A500020001-9 USSR-Rumania: Three days of meetings in Moscow between Soviet leaders and Rumanian Foreign Minister Manescu ended on 9 April with only a barebones state- ment regarding the outcome. TASS characterized Manescu's discussions with Brezhnev, Kosygin and Foreign Minister Gromyko as a "useful exchange of opinions,"--a phrase usually used to indicate :Lack of agreement. Yugoslav and Western press services have reported that the Russian leaders accepted Manescu's invitation to visit Bucharest to sign a new friendship treaty--presumably a prime topic of the discussions. Formal announcements from Moscow and Bucharest, however, failed to mention either a visit or the treaty, stating only that bilateral relations, European security, and "to~p- ical international problems" were discussed. Chile: Radomiro Tomic has withdrawn "ir- revocably" from the contest for the presiden- tial nomination of President Frei's Christian Democratic Party. Tomic, who resigned as am- bassador to the United States a year ago to return to Chilean political life, has generally been considered Frei's heir apparent in the elec- tion scheduled for September 1970. He said re- cently, however, that he would not run unless he received support from the forces of the left, meaning the Communist and Socialist parties, which have now rebuffed his overtures. He may be raising the ploy of an "irrevocable" with- drawal to rally support for his candidacy. 12 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004//~1 kc.IA,DP79T00975A013500020001-9 Secrftproved For Rase 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AW3500020001-9 Secret Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13500020001-9