CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A013600010001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 13, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 24, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
Secret
5Q
24 April 1969
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No. 0098/69
24 April 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Korea: Pyongyang is defensive yet defiant in its
first formal statement on the shootdown. (Page 2)
Lebanon: Civil disturbances follow government ef-
forts to control the fedayeen. (Page 5)
USSR: The military portion of the Moscow May Day
parade may have been canceled. (Page 6)
India: A dispute over economic planning underlines
weakened Congress Party authority. (Page 7)
Burma: Government's campaign suggests delay in po-
litical changes. (Page 8)
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Somali Republic: National police commander is ousted.
(Page 10)
Israel-Egypt: Commando raids (Page 11)
Peru: Delegation to Washington (Page 11)
Brazil: Terrorist incidents (Page 11)
USSR-Mongolia: Communications satellite ground sta-
tion. (Page 12)
Common Market - Yugoslavia: Trade negotiations
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South Vietnam: The low level of military ac-
tivity of recent weeks continued on 22-23 April,
but there are increasing indications that the en-
emy is preparing for another offensive this summer.
ommunis torces are at least laying e
groundwork for renewed, large-scale fighting, pos-
sibly to begin in June. These reports mention sev-
eral different urban areas as intended targets, but
repeatedly specify Saigon as the prime objective.
Ambitious plans of this sort were also reported
prior to the recent winter-spring campaign, but en-
emy forces were unable to put them into effect.
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e enemy is
keenly aware of his shortcomings in carrying out
earlier plans and has some doubt about the chances
of success in a campaign this summer.
It appears likely that the reported prepara-
tions for another Communist offensive this summer
are still in the preliminary stages, thus leaving
ample room for alte
attempt in June wil
rations. What the enemy may
l upon events in South
Vietnam and Paris.
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24 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Korea: Pyongyang has adopted a defensive
yet defiant stance in its first formal pronounce-
ment on the EC-?121 incident.
The North Koreans clearly have been playing
for time in which to assess US intentions. The
defensive tone of the government statement on 23
April suggests that the North Korean leaders are
well aware of their weak international position
and are fully conscious of the hazards in any fur-
ther military provocations against heavily defended
US fleet units and installations.
The North Koreans made a feeble attempt to
link the EC-121. with the Pueblo affair, but the
weakness of their case is evident in their failure
to cite a precise location for the alleged intru-
sion of the US plane. The omission of details
contrasts sharply with the elaborate attempt to
"document" the Pueblo's violation of North Korean
waters. -
The statement attempts to offset the weakness
of the North Korean claim by adopting a defiant
stance with regard to any future US intrusions.
In an obvious attempt to play upon foreign uneasi-
ness regarding US intentions, the statement claims
there is no "guarantee" that US flights "will not
intrude again." It further seeks to cast doubt on
US intentions by warning that the US will exploit
any North Korean defensive reaction as a pretext
to "commit full-scale attack" which may lead to an-
other "total war" in Korea.
An incident along the central sector of the
Demilitarized Zone on 23 April apparently was not
directly related to Pyongyang's response to the re-
sumption of US reconnaissance flights. The North
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Koreans fired on a UN Command guard post, probably
in order to cover the retreat of reconnaissance
personnel who had stumbled into a nearby minefield
two hours earlier.
The North Koreans presumably were attempting
to collect information on South Korean and US force
deployments since the shootdown on 15 April. Sim-
ilar probes and encounters along the Demilitarized
Zone occurred in the period immediately following
the Pueblo seizure. The fire fight was cited by a
Pyongyang domestic service broadcast as a serious
"new provocation" by the US.
South Korea appears to be continuing to make
a deliberate effort to keep in step with the US
position.
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LEBANON: State of National Emergency Declared
S Y R I A
Golan
Heights
occuPua)
?AIQunaytirah
Baniyas
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Lebanon:[ Serious civil disturbances have
developed as a result of the government's effort
to control the fedayeen.
.A state of national emergency--scheduled to
last until 27 April--has been declared by the cab-
inet following a number of demonstrations yesterday
protesting the government's recent actions against
the fedayeen groups. Armed Palestinians from a
refugee camp near Sidon in southern Lebanon clashed
with security forces; three refugees were killed
and some 30 wounded. Three more demonstrators were
killed and 25 persons wounded in a subsequent clash
in Beirut. Troops are still patrolling city streets
and are guarding key buildings as well as the Amer-
ican University. In Barr Ilyas, Biqa Province, yet
another incident resulted in 14 injuries and the
death of a security officer.,
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USSR: The Soviets may have canceled all or
part of the military portion of the Moscow May Day
parade.
I report that the mil-
itary equipment assembled. at Moscow's Central Air-
port in preparation for the parade has not been seen
at the airport or at other likely assembly areas
since the night of 8-9 April. The equipment--in-
cluding missiles, tanks, and artillery--had arrived
at the airport about 3 April as is the usual prac-
tice.
Night rehearsals for the parade were due to
begin in Red Square this week, but so far only dis-
mounted marching elements have been seen.
There is no persuasive explanation for such a
sharp break with tradition. Moscow may wish to play
down the military section of the parade as a way of
promoting a "peaceful image," although preparations
for a military parade in Leningrad were noted as
late as 20 April,
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India: A public hassle over the new fourth
five-year plan again underlines the weakened au-
thority of the Congress Party leadership in New
Delhi.
The chief ministers of the left-Communist dom-
inated governments in Kerala and West Bengal re-
fused to endorse the new plan during a meeting of
all chief ministers on 19 April. Open criticism
came from several Congress state ministers who be-
lieve the plan does not provide adequate funds for
state-run development projects. New Delhi is al-
ready under fire for delays in proposing the fourth
plan, originally scheduled to begin in 1966. It
must now present the plan to parliament with chief
ministers still carping at the plan despite a last-
minute agreement by New Delhi to reconsider the
level of funds for the states.
The Congress Party's decline at the polls, re-
flected in electoral defeats in 1967 and in several
state mid-term elections in February 1969, has weak-
ened central government leverage on center-state
issues, especially because regional and local par-
ties have profited most from Congress' losses. The
left-Communists, whose victories in Kerala and West
Bengal reflect local hostility to New Delhi, will
continue to harass the government on center-state
issues. Congress state leaders, moreover, appear
increasingly responsive to local demands even in
the face of counterpressure from the center.
Meanwhile, the Congress hierarchy continues to
squabble, and decision making is hampered by weak
and vacillating leadership from Prime Minister
Gandhi. A cabinet member joined the chief ministers
in attacking the five-year plan in the most recent
example of dissension in senior Congress ranks.
Intraparty disputes inhibit coherent government and
party policy at a time when Congress should be con-
solidating its forces in preparation for the diffi-
cult general elections of 1972.
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Burma, A vociferous government press campaign
against parliamentary democracy suggests that po-
litical changes will be delayed.
The press attacks, which came just before
General Ne Win's expected return from a month in
London, are probably intended by Ne win and his
government to scotch expectations of early political
changes. The choice of Brigadier San Yu, a rela-
tively moderate member of the ruling Revolutionary
Council, as one of the spokesmen was probably meant
to disabuse politicians of any idea that the mili-
tary hierarchy will make significant concessions.
Former Premier U Nu, who retains much of his
popularity and who has recently conducted religious
lectures in a thinly disguised political campaign,
was a particular target of criticism.
In the latter half of 1968, Ne Win made ambig-
uous statements about bringing civilians into the
government and set up an advisory body of former
politicians to submit suggestions for changes in
government structure and policy. He reportedly has
been displeased by the politicians' bickering, how-
ever, and has not responded to their proposals,
submitted in early Februar that civilians be given
a role in the government.
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Somali Republic: National police commander
General Mohamed Abscir has been ousted by the Egal
government.
Abscir? who was replaced by the able deputy
commander General Korshel following a cabinet deci-
sion on 21 April,, has been named Somali ambassador
to Paris. Abscir's ouster is a result of his long-
standing feud with Prime Minister Egal which broke
into the open earlier this year. Egal temporarily
shelved the "Abscir affair" during the national
election campaign by placing the general on en-
forced leave in late February, but it was clear
that Abscir might eventually be eased out.
The end came sooner than expected, how-
ever; most thought that a final solution would be de-
layed until June, when Abscir was due back on duty.
Technically, until the nomination of a new
prime minister by President Scermarche is acted
upon by parliament, Egal heads only a caretaker
government. It appears, however, that Egal feels
confident enough that he will again head the govern-
ment to move against Abscir now.
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Israel-Egypt: Continuation of Egyptian commando
raids across the Suez Canal may provoke a major Is-
raeli raid against some Egyptian targets. The Is-
raelis, who are well dug in, are suffering far less
damage than the Egyptians from the artillery duels
across the canal, but this week six Israeli soldiers
were killed and four wounded in the course of Egyp-
tian commando raids. The current state of affairs
along the canal is reminiscent of last fall when the
situation provoked the Israelis to make a helicopter-
borne commando raid deep into Egy t knocking out
two bridges
Peru:
this weekend
and a power station.
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The delegation arriving in Washington
to discuss outstanding US-Peruvian is-
sues is not likely to make any concessions on the
question of compensation for expropriation of fa-
cilities of the International Petroleum Company (IPC)
or on the territorial waters dispute. In announcing
the composition of the delegation, Peruvian Foreign
Minister Mercado stated, "the same position which
has been made public before will be maintained and
followed." President Velasco said in a speech on
and added that
22 April that the IPC case is closed
"Peru will not make any concessions."
Brazil: Scattered terrorist incidents and bank
robberies continue to confound Sao Paulo security
authorities, who believe that most of the perpetra-
tors are linked to dissident Communist leader Carlos
Marighella. The US Consulate General in Sao Paulo
has noted wall signs vowing to avenge the police
"murder" of the man who assassinated US Army Cap-
tain Chandler last October. Although security forces
have rolled up some terrorists in several large
cities, including Sao Paulo, key leaders are still
at large and will probably remain active.
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USSR-Mongolia: On 12 April the Soviets began
construction on an "Orbita" communications satellite
ground station in Ulan Bator. It is scheduled to be
completed by April 1970. This is the first such
station to be built in a foreign country, although
there are now about 24 "Orbita" stations operational
within the USSR. The facility will be used to re-
ceive Soviet TV programs relayed by Molniya satel-
lites.
Common Market- Yugoslavia: Common Market trade
negotiations with Yugoslavia over granting conces-
sions to important Yugoslav beef exports are still
being blocked by the French. France's various ob-
jections to the negotiating mandate which the Com-
mission is requesting from the Council were countered
by its Community partners and the Commission last week,
but the French representative in Brussels later said
that there is no possibility that Paris will agree
to meaningful concessions.
The issue is subject to a majority vote and the
Dutch are considering asking for one, perhaps at the
Council meeting on 12 May. A German official, however,
contends that the possibility of such a vote is "purely
theoretical"--an indication of the difficulties
facing full implementation of a common Community
trade policy.
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