CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A013900040001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 24, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 7, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
51
7 June 1969
State Dept. review completed
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No.0136/69
7 June 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
South America: The likelihood of unrest is making
several governments more apprehensive over the
Rockefeller mission. (Page 2)
Uruguay: President Pacheco suffers a defeat in
battle with Congress. (Page 4)
Ecuador: The government has decided to strengthen
security measures. (Page 5)
Panama: Little change seen in military government's
style following cabinet shuffle. (Page 6)
Communist China - USSR: Peking's charges of border
violations were timed to undercut Moscow's position
in the world Communist conference. (Page 7)
France: Poher's chances in the presidential race
have been further diminished. (Page 8)
USSR - Middle East: Moscow is advising the Arabs
against actions that risk another war with Israel.
(Page 9)
Egypt-France: France will deliver up to 1.8 million
tons of w eat to Egypt over the next three years.
(Page 10)
Nato - European Caucus: Efforts to form a European
grouping are making somewhat greater headway than
expected. (Page 11)
East Germany - Egypt: Diplomatic relations (Page 12)
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C South Vietnam: The Communists have evidently
launched the June phase" of their planned summer
offensive.
More than 100 towns and military bases were
shelled and several allied troop positions attacked
on the night of 5-6 June in the heaviest day's fight-
ing since 11-12 May. Military targets in the prov-
inces around Saigon bore the brunt of the enemy at-
tacks, but harassment also increased sharply in the
Mekong Delta provinces and to a lesser extent in
parts of the central highlands and coastal provinces.
On the night of 6-7 June, Da Nang city and nearby
US bases came under rocket and mortar fire causing
generally light damage.
Although much of the shelling was light, more
than 40 rockets struck installations at Bien Hoa
air base,with US forces suffering the principal
losses. Throughout the country, at least 40 US
soldiers were killed and over 100 wounded. South
Vietnamese casualties were fairly light.
A number of reports have indicated that the
Communists plan a series of intensive but relatively
limited offensive phases over the summer.
Enemy forces do not appear in a position to
mount early large ground attacks against the major
-
cities of Saigon, Da Nana or Hue. 1
1
7 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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South America: ( ie likelihood of unrest and
demonstrations is making the Brazilian, Uruguayan,
and Argentine governments increasingly apprehensive
over the Rockefeller mission which has scheduled
visits there later this month.
In Uruguay, workers and students have been
staging sporadic demonstrations against unpopular
government austerity policies for the past month,
and civil servants plan a nationwide strike on 18
June, two days before Governor Rockefeller is sched-
uled to arrive. All leftist groups intend to demon-
strate against the visit; the present unsettled con-
ditions make violence a strong possibility. A po-
litical crisis growing out of a dispute between the
President and t] legislature is also contributing
to local tensions
In Ar tina,
F in the curren a mosp ere o s u en
and labor unrest anti-Rockefeller demonstrations
could easily turn into major disorders. Members
of the leftist-oriented Argentine University Federa-
tion reportedly intend to organize demonstrations
against the visit and to launch a propaganda cam-
paign denouncing "US imperialistic control" of
Argentine business.
The ,Brazilian Government, too, is increasingly
uneasy about the prospect of demonstrations and
student strikes during the Rockefeller visit. The
government's official position, however, remains
one of "eagerly awaiting" the visit. The government
has warned news media not to publicize any incidents
hostile to the trip, and security forces are watch-
ing possible sources of either anti-US or antigovern-
ment agitation. Radical student leaders, however,
have so far eluded poles- and are pursuing their
plans for demonstrations.,
7 Jun 69
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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In Paraguay, which is to be visited during the
same rip, students have been agitating at the uni-
versity on local reform issues, but there are no
indications that they plan to include the Rockefeller
mission in their protests. In any event, the secur-
ity forces are efficient and should be able to deal
effectively with any trouble that might develop,
7 Jun 6 9 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Uruguay; President Pacheco has suffered a
major defeat in a hard-fought battle with Congress
over his policy of economic austerity.
On 5 June the Congress voted, by an overwhelm-
ing majority, to censure a cabinet minister respon-
sible for implementing a key aspect of Pacheco's
program. Pacheco had made it clear that he would
institute legal proceedings to dissolve Congress
and call for new elections if his minister were
censured by anything less than the constitutionally
required three-fifths majority.
According to the constitution, Pacheco must
accept the minister's resignation and cannot now
call new elections. The anti-Pacheco forces were
unable by themselves to muster the censure vote,
but a key sector in the President's own party voted
with the opposition at the last minute in a move
to avoid new elections.
The defeat comes at a crucial time for Pacheco.
Labor and student groups have been demonstrating
against his economic policies sporadically, and a
one-day nationwide strike is planned for 10 June.
Popular and opposition pressure to ease the aus-
terity policies has been mounting, and unless the
defection of his own party colleagues was only
temporary, the President's economic program is in
danger of being significantly weakened.
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Ecuador: The Velasco government decided on
3 June to strengthen security measures in the be-
lief that rising student agitation is part of a
leftist-terrorist conspiracy
The decision may have been precipitated by
pressure from top military and police officers,
whose forces are insufficient to deal with the con-
tinuing terrorist activity that has been simultan-
eously disrupting several Ecuadorean cities. A
crackdown is sure to be politically unpopular, and
the government has been reluctant to adopt it. The
forcible recovery of buildings at Guayaquil Univer-
sity on 29 May, which resulted in several student
deaths and many injuries, has aroused widespread
criticism from Velasco's many opponents as well
as some of his erstwhile political allies.
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Panama: A minor cabinet shift on 5 June por-
tends little change in the style of the military
government, which remains firmly under the control
of National Guard chief Torrijos.
The minister of government was removed and re-
placed by the finance minister, who in turn was suc-
ceeded by a Panamanian banking executive. A new
Ministry of Commerce and Industries was established
by splitting the former Ministry of Agriculture,
Commerce, and Industry? A prominent electoral tri-
bunal official and close confidant of Torrijos was
shifted to head the new ministry.
A long-time leftist, Romulo Escobar, was named
to the three-man electoral body that is charged
with preparations for new elections next year. The
reasons for his appointment are not clear, but
Escobar apparently has close ties to the Torrijos
family.
In another development, prominent architect
and professor Edwin Fabrega was named rector of
the University of Panama, which is scheduled to re-
open on 16 June. The choice of Fabrega is viewed
by the US Embassy as a potentially good one. The
government hopes that its reorganization of the
university administration and other reforms will
keep the students in line.
7 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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.Communist China - USSR: Peking's statement
alleging Soviet border violations clearly was timed
to undercut Moscow's position in the current world
Communist conference.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry note of 6 June
rebutted recent "unofficial" Soviet charges of Chi-
nese provocations by outlining in detail a series
of alleged hostile Soviet actions along the eastern
and Sinkiang borders following the Ussuri River
clash of last March. The note complained of "con-
tinued" Soviet machinegun and artillery fire in
areas along the disputed Ussuri and Amur River
frontiers.
The Chinese are emphasizing border issues ra-
ther than ideological questions because they judge
that this line of attack provides the best means
of exploiting Moscow's current difficulties within
the Communist movement. The Soviets will feel com-
pelled to respond to the Chinese allegations in
full, although they doubtless would prefer not to
become involved in an acrimonious public exchange
on this issue during the sensitive proceedings of
the conference. A Soviet Foreign Ministry press
spokesman yesterday rejected the Chinese charges
and maintained that the frontier is "absolutely
quiet."
C Poland's Gomulka and other speakers raised
the Chinese question for the first time yesterday
at the International Communist Conference meeting
in Moscow. It can be taken for granted that these
remarks were inspired by the Russians. The attack
on the Chinese drew an immediate response from the
Rumanian party chief, who warned that continued
criticism would throw the conference into disarray.]
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France: Poher's chance to win the presidency
has been diminished further by defections from his
own camp.
A growing number of centrist parliamentary dep-
uties are expected to back Pompidou. In addition,
the small right-wing Republican Alliance group has
reversed its first-round stand and endorsed Pompidou.
The National Center of Independents, which also en-
dorsed Poher originally, is sharply split over what
position to take. The leaders have postponed a de-
cision until 10 June and, in the meantime, are per-
mitting local federations to decide on an individual
basis.
Other center leaders, including Pierre Sudreau--
widely considered as Poher's most likely choice for
prime minister--are either privately leaning toward
Pompidou or maintaining silence in public.
A recent poll confirms Poher's downward spiral.
Of those who had made up their minds to vote on the
second round, only 42 percent supported Poher with
58 percent for Pompidou. Of the 42 percent favoring
Poher, almost a quarter said they might change their
minds, while 91 percent of Pompidou's supporters
said their decision was firm. The poll also indi-
cated that 51 percent of those who voted for the
Communist candidate intend to abstain.
The polls, which failed to forecast Pompidou's
impressive showing on the first round, may be more
accurate for the runoff because voters now have
only two, rather than seven, choices.
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USSR - Middle East: Moscow marked the anniver-
sary of the 1967 war by strongly advising the Arabs
against actions which risk another war with Israel.
An article in Pravda yesterday was one of Mos-
cow's bluntest public warnings to "some Arab repre-
sentatives" who advocate "recarving the map of the
Middle East." It attacked such efforts as a boon
to Israel and a threat to "progressive Arab regimes"
and praised the "constructive position" of President
Nasir. Pravda emphasized the UAR's "realistic"
dedication to a political settlement "with due con-
sideration for the actual-international situation."
This may possibly indicate problems the Soviets are
encountering because of growing Egyptian disillusion-
ment with the course of major power efforts to bring
about a Middle East solution.
The message to Cairo seems to be that it should not
The article appears to be a stricture against
the fedayeen, possibly prompted by the recent guer-
rilla attack on the oil pipeline in the Golan Heights.
undertake rash actions along the Suez Canal and
should avoid direct involvement in fedayeen excesses.
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7 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Egypt-France: France will deliver up to 1.8
million tons of wheat to Egypt over the next three
years.
Under the terms of a recent agreement, France
will supply .500,000 tons of wheat per year at the
current market price and provide an additional
90,000 tons annually on a grant basis. Deliveries
under the first year's contract are planned to be-
gin this August. To finance the transaction, Paris
will extend'up to $27 million in credit annually
on two-year terms.
Egypt's scheduled wheat imports probably now
will be sufficient to meet Cairo's grain import re-
quirements, at least through January 1970. Deliv-
eries of 560,000 tons of French wheat and wheat
flour under an earlier contract are to be completed
by September. Last month Moscow began shipping
wheat under its commitment to provide 300,000 tons
this year, and Egypt is also procuring wheat from
other sources. Cairo's annual import requirements
are in excess of 2 million tons.
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NATO - European Caucus: itain's efforts to
form a European grouping within the Allian e appear
to be making greater headway than expected.
The ten participants in the group--all the
European NATO members with the exception of France
and Portugal--are now reported to have established
two sub-groups, one dealing with joint military
production and the other with force levels. The
first sub-group is looking into the kinds of weapons
system most suitable for joint European production,
but may later review the possibilities of coopera-
ting in logistics systems and training.
With the British taking the lead, the sub-group
on forces has been actively opposing unilateral
force reductions in Western Europe. This activity
apparently helped influence the defense ministers;
they took a strong line last week at the "Eurodinner"
in opposing the proposed Canadian cuts. British
Defense Minister Healey has sought--apparently un-
successfully--to have the group consider strategic
and defense policy issues. He is also thinking of
proposing a third sub-group to consider the implica-
tions for Europe of the u coming US-Soviet talks on
strategic arms limitation.
ome of the participants in the caucus appar-
S
I
ently remain skeptical as to how productive it will
ultimately be, and the Dutch, at least, continue to
have doubts that the US fully supports its develop-
ment.
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East Germany - Egypt: East Germany's Foreign
Minister Winzer is in Cairo to sound out the Egyp-
tians on establishing diplomatic relations. He was
quoted as saying that his talks will take place
"in light of the growing movement of recognizing"
East Germany. Winzer arrived from Damascus, where
he signed an agreement formalizing the establishment
of relations with Syria. If Egypt recognizes East
Germany in the wake of the recent moves by Iraq,
Cambodia, Sudan, and now Syria, Pankow's chances
of gaining recognition from other Arab and third
world countries probably would be greatly enhanced.
7 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 12
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