CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A013900080001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 29, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 12, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
51.
12 June 1969
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No. 0140/69
12 June 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
International Communism: Dissident parties continue
to challenge Soviet positions at the world conference.
(Page 2)
Communist China: An authoritative pronouncement has
warned recalcitrants to fall in line. (Page 3)
Argentina: President Ongania has begun to reorgan-
ize his administration. (Page 5)
Ecuador: President Velasco is getting deeper into
trouble. (Page 6)
Afghanistan: The government is sidestepping action
to mollify student discontent. (Page 7)
Senegal: In the face of growing labor unrest, Pres-
ident Senghor has declared a state of emergency.
(Page 8)
Czechoslovakia: Diplomatic personnel shifts (Page 9)
Brazil: Security measures (Page 9)
Panama: President's illness (Page 9)
Turkey: Student violence (Page 10)
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108 AVERAGE STRENGTH 110
OF ENEMY UNITS
Battalion: VC 200- 400
N V A 300- 500
Regiment: VC 1,000-1,500
N V A 1,200-2,000
VC 5,000-7,000
NVA 5,000-8,000
104
95267 6-69 CIA
~ 11 N
AN IV CORPS
SECRET
SOUTH VIETNAM
SOUTH
CHINA
SEA
110
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E Vietnam: President Thieu has taken the announce-
ment of the Communists' "Provisional Revolutionary
Governments" (PRG) in stride.
He quickly dismissed it as another Communist
ploy aimed at destroying his government. Thieu
pointed out that the leaders of the PRG are all
"familiar faces" from the Communist camp. He said
that the new Communist creation would not affect the
talks in Paris, because they would remain two-sided
as before.
Analysis of the PRG's composition supports
Thieu's statements. The chairmanship and first-
level posts of the PRG are all allotted to hard-
core Communists. Only at the subministerial level
does the PRG begin to broaden to include some fel-
low travelers.
Moreover, the make-up of the PRG suggests that
the Communists discarded any hopes of creating a
rival government which would include at least some
persons with genuine appeal to non-Communist nation-
alists. Most PRG figures are completely recogniz-
able to politically aware Vietnamese as long-time
Communists or fellow travelers.
* * * *
Some sharp fighting occurred in the northern
provinces of South Vietnam on 11 June. Enemy sap-
pers penetrated a US artillery base south of Da Nang,
and more than a dozen US soldiers were killed before
the Communists were driven off. Closer to Da Nang,
an enemy battalion left 35 dead in the wake of an
attack on a US Marine command post.
The Communists may be planning another surge of
widespread attacks during the period beginning on
15 June.
1Prisoners and documents captured recent y
a so poi to enemy plans for terrorist attacks and
political agitation in the major cities, including
Saigon. (Map)
12 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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International Communism: Dissident parties con-
tinue to use their speeches at the world conference
to challenge the Soviet position on sensitive issues.
In his speech yesterday the Italian party rep-
resentative directly criticized the Soviet invasion
of Czechoslovakia, and said his delegation was not
willing to sign the conference document in its pres-
ent form. He was critical, too, of anti-Chinese pro-
nouncements on the conference floor and urged the
need for China's support in the struggle against
imperialism.
The Czechoslovaks and, of course, the Soviets
had hoped to avoid the invasion issue. Party chief
Husak, in a speech later yesterday, rebuked the Ital-
ians, as well as the Australians who last week con-
demned the invasion.
By comparison with the Italians, the Rumanian
speech on 9 June was more guarded in tone. Ceausescu
cited several negative aspects of the conference, in
particular expressing disapproval of attacks on the
Chinese leadership. Ceausescu insisted on every
party's right to dissent and to be independent. He
hinted that he might not be able to sign the final
document, but said that Rumania had decided to re-
main at the conference.
The French party adhered closely to the Soviet
line in its formal speech. A spokesman tried to
salvage some credit for the party, however, by in-
forming Western press representatives that it still
did not approve of the invasion of Czechoslovakia.
Many delegations reportedly are critical of the
haphazard methods of the conference. Much work still
has to be done on the wording of the basic document,
and no decision has yet been reached as to whether
delegations must approve the document in toto or will
be allowed to approve only sections of it. Four com-
missions reportedly have been designated to work on
the document. Objections would become stronger if
Moscow tried to add to the document language condemn-
ing China,
12 Jun 69 Central I ligence Bulletin
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Communist China: Peking's most authoritative
pronouncement on domestic affairs since the ninth
party congress constitutes a strong warning to re-
calcitrant elements to fall in line.
On 8 June, Peking broadcast a joint editorial
by the three major party and military journals which
strongly reaffirmed the current drive to restore po-
litical unity after the upheavals of the Cultural
Revolution. New instructions attributed to Mao Tse-
tung were added to key themes of the last two months,
all of them stressing that it is imperative to unite
the vast majority--"95 percent"--of the people be-
hind Peking's policies.
Most pointedly, the editorial insisted that re-
educated and "liberated" cadres--even some who had
earlier opposed Mao himself--must be restored to po-
sitions of real authority. Many of these men--purged
by Red Guard action--are experienced managers and ad-
ministrators. The language of the editorial reflects
the influence in Peking of those elements in China's
leadership with the greatest interest in order and
national development--primarily the central and re-
gional military leaders, together with senior gov-
ernment administrators.
The editorial itself, however, makes clear that
strong opposition to this coalition of forces remains.
Radical elements in the leadership who were most ac-
tive in purging some of these rehabilitated officials
are resisting this restoration policy.
The radical viewpoint is heard occasionally, de-
spite Peking's massive propaganda on the unity theme.
An editorial of 23 May in a Shanghai paper frequently
used as a radical voice during the Cultural Revolu-
tion warned against the indiscriminate return of
such cadres to their old posts. Tsingtao radio on
31 May, in the first such instance in a year, went
a step further by extolling the Red Guards' earlier
revolutionary performance.
12 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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The appearance of the authoritative editorial
suggests that the order-oriented group in the lead-
ership is strong enough to put the radicals on notice
that attempts to obstruct the process of political
rehabilitation or to challenge the authority of pro-
12 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Argentina: President Ongania has begun the re-
organization of his administration by upgrading the
Secretariat of Education to a ministry to deal with
student unrest, and by naming new ministers of econ-
omy and interior.
The former economy minister had achieved sig-
nificant progress with his program, but had also be-
come the chief target of labor dissatisfaction.
Press reports indicate that he recommended his suc-
cessor, Jose Maria Dagnino Pastore, a young Harvard-
trained economist currently serving as head of the
National Development Council. Dagnino Pastore
places somewhat greater emphasis on development than
his predecessor, but his policies, at least initially,
will probably not be radically different.
The new interior minister is retired General
Francisco Imaz, formerly governor of Buenos Aires
Province, whose nationalist orientation is also
similar to that of his predecessor.
12 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Ecuador: President Velasco is getting deeper
into trouble.
Vice President Zavala has now charged that Vel-
asco plans to assume dictatorial powers. The contro-
versial and unpopular Zavala is hardly the rallying
point for Velasco's opposition, but his suspicions
that the President views himself as above the law
are widely shared. Zavala's Radical Liberal Party
has recently begun criticizing Velasco after a year
of legislative cooperation.
Public confidence in Velasco has weakened notice-
ably in recent weeks. Fiscal problems and frequent
cabinet and administrative changes have impeded gov-
ernment operations, while. the administration has
been erratic in efforts to control students who for
weeks have disrupted key Ecuadorean cities. Mili-
tary leaders may indeed have warned the President
that they must be given more power to assure public
order.
The vice president's break with Velasco, at a
minimum, will give impetus to plotting against the
government by groups from far left to far right.
The most serious immediate threat is from the stu-
dents, who plan to engage in terrorism that is sure
to provoke a react-ion from Fho military.
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Afghanistan: The government continues to side-
step any action to remedy the causes underlying the
current wave of student discontent.
On 9 June, the government closed all schools
in Kabul for an indefinite time because of the
steadily growing, though basically nonviolent, stu-
dent demonstrations that have occurred since mid-
April. Instead of attempting to redress student
and faculty grievances, the government has thus
postponed decisions regarding academic policies and
the amount of force to be used in dealing with stu-
dent activism.
Cabinet members will probably become even more
reluctant to take any decisive action as the parlia-
mentary elections, commencing in August, draw closer,
and the uneasy student situation may be allowed to
drift throughout the summer. The government pre-
sumably anticipates a decline in the number of dem-
onstrations as students leave Kabul to return to
their homes in the provinces. If, however, the re-
maining students, encouraged by the extreme right
and left, continue to demonstrate, the government
may be forced to use stern tactics--perhaps even
calling in the army--to maintain order.
Despite the present difficulties and the lack
of governmental leadership, King Zahir appears to
remain firmly in power. He will probably encourage
the politicians to take whatever steps are necessary
to maintain order, lest the current unrest provide
an excuse for leaders at both ends of the political
spectrum to attack his halting, but mildly unsuc-
cessful, six-year-old "experiment in democracy."
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Senegal: In the face of growing labor unrest,
President Senghor has declared a state of emergency.
Senghor's action came after the national labor
union had called a 48-hour general strike to begin
today. By last night, the police took over the
labor union headquarters. The general strike call
followed a breakdown in talks between striking bank
workers and their employers. Union leaders, who
had previously been able to restrain the increasingly
militant rank and file from backing the bank workers,
have now apparently been forced to go along.
This latest unrest comes against a background
of widespread student disaffection, which has
erupted in strikes and riots on several occasions
over the past year. The disaffected students will
probably make common cause with the workers and
seek to prolong the strike.
Senghor recently condemned the bank strikes
as unreasonable and contrary to national interests.
Despite the general hardening of the government's
attitude toward the workers, Senghor may yet try
to negotiate with, them. Serious budgetary diffi-
culties, however, will probably prevent him from
satisfying the basic demands of the labor unions
which are likelyto remain a continuing source of
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Czechoslovakia: The Husak leadership is plan-
ning to reorganize the Foreign Ministry and to re-
shuffle personnel extensively in diplomatic posts
abroad. Various diplomats who were most outspoken
in opposing the Soviet invasion and its aftermath--
including as many as 20 ambassadors in Western coun-
tries--reportedly will be recalled and retired.
Conservatives who were exiled to diplomatic posts
probably also will come home to re-enter party and
government posts. The reorganization may be com-
plicated, however, by Slovak demands for better re-
presentation in a federalized foreign service; there
is a shortage of competent Slqvak officials to fill
posts vacated by the Czechs.
Brazil: Security officials are continuing
their efforts to prevent student demonstrations dur-
ing Governor Rockefeller's visit. At the University
of Brasilia they have rounded up 19 of 22 leaders
of the outlawed student federation, and students are
expecting further repressive measures. At the Uni-
versity of Sao Paulo, the growing number of preventive
arrests is reported to be angering even moderate stu-
dents, who associate the US with this "repression."
Extremist students may be able to exploit this at-
titude to gain the support of t11 moderates for
anti-Rockef ller demonstrations.
I I
Panama: Figurehead President Jose Pinilla suf-
fered a severe Bart attack on 10 June. The 52-year-
old Pinilla's condition appears serious because of
his prior history of cardiac attacks. Pinilla and
his deputy Bolivar Urrutia--both former national
guard colonels--have made up the combination that
nominally functions as the executive. The real
power in the country, however, is exercised by guard
commandant General Torrijos and is not likely to be
affected by Pinilla's illness or death.
(continued)
12 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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Turkey: Student unrest, allegedly over the
slow pace of educational reform, has led to new
violence in Ankara and Istanbul. Violence by stu-
dent extremists in Ankara included a hit-and-run
attack yesterday on the US military headquarters
building. Molotov cocktails were thrown, but damage
was not extensive. A battle between riot police
and students in Istanbul on 10 June left many in-
jured, some seriously. Politically motivated ex-
tremists continue to play on the students' frustra-
tion, and sporadic attacks on the symbols of the
US presence in Turkey can be expected.
12 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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