CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014000100001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 30, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
50 30 June 1969
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No. 0155/69
30 June 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Cambodia: There are indications that several impor-
tant problems between Cambodia and the Vietnamese
Communists have yet to be resolved. (Page 2)
USSR-Asia: Moscow may be working on an elaboration
of Brezhnev's recent proposal for a "collective se-
curity system" for Asia. (Page 3)
Czechoslovakia: Party leader Husak is still enmeshed
in political infighting. (Page 5)
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Nepal-India: Relations continue to deteriorate.
Page 8)
UN - Middle East: Jordanian protest (Page 9)
Turke : Students (Page 9)
Pakistan: Unrest (Page 10)
Malaysia: Clashes (Page 10)
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NORTH
^ViETNAM
SOUTH VIETNAM
MILES
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I South Vietnam: Communist-initiated military
action was generally light on 28-29 June. There
were no major ground engagements, but three rockets
struck the northwestern outskirts of Saigon late
last night wounding four South Vietnamese civilians.
The pace of the daily enemy shellings of Ben
Het dropped off significantly over the weekend fol-
lowing the record high 236?-round barrage of 27 June.
Extensive allied air and artillery strikes may have
forced the Communists to alter their offensive time-
table.
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Cambodia: Circumstances surrounding the visit
of the head of the Provisional Revolutionary Govern-
ment (PRG) suggest that several important problems
between Cambodia and the Vietnamese Communists have
yet to be resolved.
One
n tor i anouk s reluctance may be his unwill-
ingness to meet Communist demands to resume supply
shipments to the Viet Cong without a reciprocal ges-
ture. Sihanouk suspended the shipments last month,
as part of his effort to pressure the Communists into
limiting their activities on Cambodian territory.
The recent admission by the PRG ambassador in
Phnom Penh that Communist troops are located on Cam-
bodian soil, and the "promise" that they would leave
as soon as possible," may have been part of the
price Sihanouk exacted for agreeing to Huynh Tan Phat's
visit. The Communists presumably will not push Si-
hanouk for a firm commitment on the supply issue,
but Phat may have a number of other questions re-
lating to the Vietnam war to discuss with Sihanouk
at this juncture, including a reduction of Cambodian
military pressures against Communist forces in Cam-
bodia.
Press reports from Phnom Penh indicate that Si-
hanouk is likely to drive a hard bargain with Phat.
The reluctance with which he has agreed to the visit,
however, and reports that the Vietnamese themselves
are taking a tough line, suggest that the Communists
are attempting to pressure Sihanouk into concessions
on matters of vital importance to them.
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USSR-Asia: Soviet officials are intimating
that Moscow is working on an elaboration of Brezh-
nev's recent proposal for a "collective security
system" for Asia.
Since Brezhnev made his remarks on 7 June, So-
viet diplomats abroad, professing to have no further
information, have limited themselves to testing ini-
tial foreign reaction. The chief of the Southeast
Asian Countries Division of the Soviet Foreign Min-
istry, Mikhail Kapitsa, admitted on 26 June that
the "pact was still no more than a general concept."
He said, however, that a government planning group
was working on "details" which might soon be offered
for international discussion.
One of the options that Moscow is apparently
considering is similar to its previous proposals on
European security. Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister
Kozyrev told I Iin Moscow on
20 June that his government was considering issuing
a call similar to that issued by the Warsaw Pact
countries for an all-European security conference
in Budapest last March. Previous Soviet European
security proposals have been generally vague, amount-
ing to suggestions that all nations agree at such a
conference to abolish military blocs, solve their
differences peacefully, and work toward better eco-
nomic, political, and cultural relations. Several
Soviet officials have indicated that this is what
Moscow has in mind for Asia.
The first moves could also be handled in other
ways, and Moscow is probably considering all aspects
of the situation at this time. Aside from a Chinese
denouncement, Asian reaction has been guarded, and
the Soviets must overcome a number of difficulties
before launching any initiative. It is clear, how-
ever, that whatever does emerge will be aimed at
countering th Chinese and undermining the influence
of the West.
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Czechoslovak party first secretary Gustav Husak (R) and his conservative-rival, Czech
party bureau chief Lubomir Strougal, may be forming a tenuous alliance.
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Czechoslovakia: Two months after succeeding
Dubcek, party leader Husak is enmeshed in political
infighting that has frustrated his efforts to gain
complete control.
Husak's insistence on a relatively moderate
retrogression from Dubcek's liberalism has kept him
on a collision course with pro-Soviet conservatives
who desire a return to full orthodoxy. In an attempt
to solidify the party, Husak appears to have joined
forces with the hard-liners; who advocate repressive
measures on some issues.
For their part, the conservatives have been un-
able to generate enough support within the party to
launch a meaningful challenge to Husak's leadership
and its policies. There are recent signs that, as
a result, conservative leader Strougal has moved to-
ward a tenuous alliance with Husak--perhaps as the
only alternative to another political crisis. The
protracted infighting apparently accounts for Husak's
failure to put forth positive programs that would
give the regime a sense of direction and help to in-
troduce stability.
The people regard the regime as a creature of
Soviet pressure, and have become increasingly alien-
ated by Husak's cooperation with the conservatives
on various issues. Passive resistance among workers,
students, and intellectuals is growing. Moreover,
this passivity masks considerable popular determina-
tion to resist further concessions to Moscow and to
oppose austerity measures that are urgently being
drafted to boost the sagging economy.
So far, Husak has achieved a period of relative
domestic calm, in part because he has refused to im-
pose police terror to enforce the retrogressive de-
crees. The first anniversary of the Soviet invasion
is approaching, however, and unless the party can
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unite and impose its will, the regime could be faced
with some adverse popular reaction.
The Soviets' failure so far to give Husak whole-
hearted support is probably a further cause of in-
stability. It also contributes to popular fears that
Moscow still may be working toward a more repressive
regime. The Soviets have reportedly again postponed
Husak's planned trip to the USSR for bilateral talks,
in part as a tactic to coerce the Czechoslovaks into
making additional personnel and policy changes.
(Photo)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Nepal-India: Indo-Nepalese relations continue
to deteriorate in an atmosphere of mutual recrimina-
tion and distrust.
In an unusually candid press interview on 24
June, Nepalese Prime Minister Bista rejected India's
claim to a special relationship with Nepal in mili-
tary and security fields. Bista maintained that the
exchange of defense-related information under the
1950 Indo-Nepalese Treaty is now "unnecessary." He
added that so far as Nepal is concerned the Indo-
Nepalese arms assistance agreement of 1965, desig-
nating India as Nepal's military supplier of first
resort, is terminated. He called for the withdrawal
of the 50-man Indian military liaison group and of
Indian personnel manning checkposts on the Tibet-
Nepal border, claiming that Nepal is not willing to
compromise its own sovereignty for India's "so-called
security."
According to the head of the Indian military
liaison group in Nepal, India intends to keep its
military frontier on the Himalayas and retain the
capability of moving into Nepal to meet any Chinese
aggression. He added, however, that India is will-
ing to reduce the number of checkposts and advisory
personnel, and does not oppose cancellation of the
military assistance agreement.
Despite the deterioration of relations, mutual
self-interest may yet bring about the gradual reso-
lution of differences. Nepal realizes it has more
to lose from bad relations than does India, but is
determined no longer to be treated as India's spe-
cial preserve.
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UN - Middle East: The Security Council is
scheduled to meet today to consider another Jorda-
nian protest over Israeli activities in Jerusalem.
Jordan has alleged that Israeli administrative and
legislative acts are violating a Security Council
injunction against changing the legal status of
Jerusalem. It is quite possible that Jordan will
press for a strongly worded resolution, which could
result in a full-scale Middle East debate potentially
damaging to the four-power negotiations. Amman ig-
nored four-power warnings to this effect when it
called the meeting.
Turkey: The chances of violence resuming in
the fall have been increased by the bitterness re-
sulting from recent student clashes. Student groups
reportedly are preparing for renewed violence after
the summer recess, and the president of the 100,000-
member small businessmen and artisans association
has hinted that his members might take to the streets
in opposition to the student left. Any substantial
expansion of unrest between now and the national
election in October will encourage the Turkish mil-
itary to take a firmer stand, and possibly to inject
itself more into the decision-making process of gov-
ernment.
(continued)
30 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Pakistan: Some signs of continuing restiveness
are evident in East Pakistan as martial law enters
its fourth month without tangible progress toward
meeting basic Bengali demands for a greater role in
the country's economic and political life. While
there is no evidence of organized resistance, stu-
dents, many of whom had the notion that President
Yahya Khan'-s government would end on 25 June, may
demonstrate for an early restoration of civilian rule.
Labor unrest appears to be growing, although workers
involved in illegal strikes in Chittagong early this
month were dealt with firmly by the government. There
Mala sia: Clashes in Kuala Lumpur during the
night-o 28-29 June reportedly resulted in five
deaths and the burning of several buildings, the
most serious incidents since the height of the riot-
ing in mid-May. Security forces have apparently
brought these disturbances under control, but the
situation in West Malaysia continues to be highly
volatile. Although the present emergency government,
almost exclusively Malay, will probably cite this
unrest as a rationale for its lack of progress in
reinstituting parliamentary government, the lack of
progress has in fact been a major factor in provok-
30 Jun 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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