CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014100110001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 29, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 16, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5o
16 July 1969
State Department review completed
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No. 0169/69
16 July 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
USSR - East Germany: Moscow has reaffirmed strong
support for East Germany. (Page 2)
Malaysia: The threat of a split in the ruling party is
growing; further communal violence is likely. (Page 3)
Pakistan: President Yahya Khan may be planning to es-
tablish a civilian caretaker government soon. (Page 4)
India: The presidential contest is developing into
a test of strength for Mrs. Gandhi. (Page 6)
Cuba: Castro has indicated he will support "revolu-
tionary" Latin American governments that gain power
without "armed struggle." (Page 7)
El Salvador - Honduras: The OAS Council has called
for a cease-fire. Page 9)
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Venezuela-Colombia: Both countries have made moves
to ease their recent difficulties. (Page 12)
Japan: The governing party has made an unexpectedly
strong showing in municipal elections in Tokyo.
(Page 13)
Bulgaria-Pakistan: Credit extended (Page 14)
Bolivia: Political tension (Page 14)
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C South Vietnam: Vice President Ky has again crit-
icized allied military and negotiating strategy in
Vietnam.
In a speech designed to re-establish his creden-
tials as South Vietnam's leading hawk and his image
of independence of the US, Ky yesterday renewed his
public criticism of American conduct of the war, pro-
posed that Saigon withdraw from the Paris talks, and
declared that the only solution for his fellow coun-
trymen is to continue to fight.
Ky probably chose this opportunity to play on
South Vietnamese xenophobia in order to contrast his
stand with that of President Thieu, whose peace plan
is being interpreted by many Vietnamese as a response
to American pressure.
North Vietnamese forces conducted a series of
light rocket and mortar attacks against allied po-
sitions below the eastern portion of the Demilitar-
ized Zone on 14-15 July, but enemy activity else-
where in South Vietnam remained at a low ebb. I
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USSR - East Germany: Moscow has proclaimed
strong support for East Germany following a visit
by an East German party-government delegation.
The statement issued at the end of the latest
talks is probably intended in part to assuage fears
which Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko's recent rel-
atively moderate speech is likely to have aroused in
Pankow over the course of Soviet foreign policy.
The Soviets, however, are unlikely to be seriously
swayed by objections from the East Germans against
making overtures of detente to the West.
in contrast to language used in Gromyko's for-
eign policy address, the statement seems at pains to
use the East Germans' pet phrases for describing the
European situation. It does voice support for de-
veloping "good-neighborly" relations with West Ger-
many, but repeats the usual set of conditions, in-
cluding recognition of East Germany, which are known
to be unacceptable to Bonn. It scores the Bonn gov-
ernment's "militarist-revanchist" and "imperialist-
expansionist" policy as one of the basic sources of
tension in Europe. It makes no reference to Gromyko's
cautious offer of bilateral talks with Bonn and four-
power talks on Berlin.
in addition to a demonstration of socialist
solidarity, the visit of 7-14 July produced agree-
ment to strengthen economic and cultural ties. Al-
though the economic agreements were not described
in any detail, they appear to involve an even tighter
meshing of the two national economies and will prob-
ably increase East German dependence on the USSR.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Malaysia: The threat of a split in the ruling
Malay Party is growing and further communal violence
is probable.
The executive committee of the United Malays
Nationalist Organization on 12 July expelled an ex-
tremist leader from the committee for circulating a
letter calling for Prime Minister Rahman's resigna-
tion. The letter charged that Rahman's pro-Chinese
policies had been responsible for the party's elec-
toral losses last May and the subsequent communal
rioting.
Although the committee's action demonstrates
that the top echelon of the party--and the govern-
ment--continues to be dominated by moderates, the
extremists are believed to have widespread support,
including some junior army officers. The expelled
extremist leader told a US Embassy official that he
will continue his anti-Rahman campaign.
If a major split does develop in the party, with
the extremists either forming a new opposition group
or joining the racist Pan Malayan Islamic Party, the
popular base of the emergency regime will be seriously
eroded. In any event, Malay extremists can be ex-
pected to step up their efforts to pressure the emer-
gency government to adopt more openly pro-Malay pol-
icies. These efforts in turn will almost certainly
lead to further harassment of the Chinese.
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Pakistan: President Yahya Khan may be planning
to establish a civilian caretaker government soon.
Admiral S. M. Ahsan, one of three deputy martial
law administrators, recently told a US official that
present planning in the top echelon of the adminis-
tration calls for early creation of the equivalent
of a civilian council of ministers composed of re-
spected nonpoliticians. This body would oversee
day-to-day functions and negotiate with political
leaders on acceptable ground rules for an eventual
return to normal political life. The three deputy
martial law administrators would return to their
service posts, but would meet periodically with
Yahya on major policy matters.
Although cautioning that the plan was not firm,
the admiral said he expected the civilian council to
be announced before President Nixon's visit at the
end of July. Ahsan may be premature in predicting
imminent announcement of the council, but Yahya prob-
ably does believe that the time is fast approaching
to take new political initiatives in order to main-
tain public confidence in the martial law adminis-
tration's promise to return the government to civil-
ian control.
Ahsan also claimed that Yahya now favors holding
elections under the 1956 constitution, with the proviso
that amendments can be made by majority vote. Sev-
eral politicians in East Pakistan, which represents
56 percent of the nation's population, also insist
on a simple majority for amendments. Achieving a
consensus on this plan, however, will not be easy.
West Pakistani politicians generally accept the 1956
constitution, but on the condition that after the
elections amendments would require a two-thirds vote
of the assembly.
(continued)
Central intetltuence B:illetin
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The two most popular Bengali leaders oppose hold-
ing any elections under the 1956 constitution. Pro-
Peking leader Maulana Bhashani has called for a na-
tional convention to frame a new constitution before
elections are held, and the more moderate Sheikh Mu-
jibur Rahman reportedly wants
lative constituen assembly
elections
held
for a legis-
under martial
law regulations.
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Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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India: The presidential contest has turned into
a major test of strength for Prime Minister Indira
Gandhi.
A serious internal power struggle has resulted
from old-guard Congress Party bosses forcing the nom-
ination of a presidential candidate unacceptable to
Mrs. Gandhi. When the party announced that Sanjiva
Reddy--currently the speaker of the lower house of
parliament--would be its candidate, acting President
V. V. Girl also declared himself in the running. Girl's
decision apparently was prompted by Mrs. Gandhi.
Mrs. Gandhi now appears to be backing away from
an open confrontation with the party bosses which could
threaten her hold on the prime ministership. Most
Congress leaders in the past have been reluctant to
push matters to an open break and it is possible that
she may prevail again. on the other hand, her enemies
may believe that they finally have her on the run and
may seek to press their advantage.]
The presidential election will be held on 16 Au-
gust by an electoral college made up of the members
of the national parliament and the state legislatures.
Unless Congress unites behind a single candidate, there
is a chance that it could lose. Although the oppo-
sition parties are unlikely to get behind a single
candidate, a split Congress vote could in effect
leave the decision in the opposition's hands.
The Indian presidency under normal conditions
is primarily a ceremonial position. It could assume
considerable importance if--as expected--no single
party gains a clear majority in the
election which must be held by 1972.
16 Jul 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Cuba: Fidel Castro has indicated his willing-
ness to support Latin American "revolutionary" gov-
ernments that assume power by means other than
"armed struggle."
His statements in a speech on 14 July, however,
do not mean that the "armed struggle" policy has
been abandoned. Cuba can be expected to continue
its support of insurgency wherever the chances for
success seem good.
Cuban policy in the past has generally empha-
sized guerrilla warfare as the only means of achiev-
ing desired political change "in most countries of
Latin America." In the speech, however, Castro said
that "it is only fair that each country develop its
own revolution in its own style in accordance with
the conditions of that country." Although he was
speaking in the context of the current Peruvian sit-
uation, his statements accord more closely with the
views of the Latin American Communist parties, which
have long maintained that the path to power should
be determined by local Communist leaders, not by
Havana.
Castro acknowledged that the measures adopted
so far by the new Peruvian administration have a
"revolutionary character" and said that if the Peru-
vians--or any other Latin American government--main-
tained an anti-imperialist attitude and renounced
the OAS sanctions against Cuba, the Cuban Government
would not refuse a request for the resumption of re-
lations.
This overture--first voiced by the Cuban repre-
sentative at a UN conference in Lima last April--
was probably prompted by several factors, such as
the announced agrarian reform program in Peru, the
nationalization of US firms in Peru and Chile, state-
ments by various Latin American leaders calling for
the reintegration of Cuba into the American commu-
nity, and the hostile reception given to Governor
Rockefeller on his recent trips to the area.
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El Salvador-Honduras Military Actions
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Honduran planes attack
?OL storage facilities
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C E1 Salvador - Honduras: The OAS Council .in an,
effort to end the two-day-old hostilities has or-
dered a cease-fire.
The council, acting under the Rio Treaty, unan-
imously approved a resolution yesterday calling for
both sides to suspend hostilities. It also charged
the special seven-nation investigative committee
now in El Salvador with recommending measures to be
taken to end the fighting started by El Salvador on
14 July.
Salvadoran President Sanchez had been under in-
tense domestic pressure for military action to avenge
reverses suffered during past border clashes and al-
leged mistreatment of Salvadorans in Honduras. The
government apparently feared that it would be over-
turned if it did not allow the military an opportun-
ity to refurbish its poor public image. It there-
fore launched an attack before the OAS could issue
an expected call for the stationing of observers
along the border. Salvadoran officials, however,
were expecting an early OAS cease-fire order and are
likely to honor it.
Salvadoran ground offensives in the El Amatillo
area at its eastern border with Honduras and in the
El Poy-Nueva Ocotepeque area near the northwestern
border are showing signs of success. Salvadoran troops
have reportedly occupied Nueva Ocotepeque and Valla-
dolid, and have penetrated as far as Langue on the
eastern front. Each country has bombed and strafed
the other's capital city airport but only minor damage
was inflicted. Honduran planes attacked oil depots
at La Union and Acajutla, causing severe damage which
may result in serious POL shortages.
The Honduran ambassador to Guatemala told the
OAS committee yesterday that his government was pre-
pared to accept a comprehensive cease-fire. Honduran,
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C radiobroadcasts under government direction, however,
are waging an intensive psychological campaign
against El Salvador, threatening to "erase" San Sal-
vador from the map and pay El Salvador back "ten
fold." The broadcasts are advising Salvadorans to
evacuate San Salvador and urging them to overthrow
the Sanchez government. There are reports, also,
that Salvadorans in Honduras are being rounded up
and detained. This has occurred in only one city
but might spread.
(Map)
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Venezuela-Colombia: Both countries have made
moves to ease their recent difficulties.
For his first foreign visit since his inaugura-
tion, Venezuelan President Caldera has chosen to ac-
cept an invitation to attend ceremonies commemora-
ting the 150th anniversary of Colombia's indepen-
dence. To pave the way for a successful visit, he
has responded positively to President Lieras' sug-
gestion that Venezuela join in efforts to mediate
the current crisis in Central America.
Problems have recently arisen between the two
countries over the perennial question of Colombians
who work illegally in Venezuela, Venezuela's failure
to adhere to the Andean economic integration agree-
ment, and disputed jurisdiction over part of the
continental shelf.
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Japan: The governing party made an unexpect-
edly strong showing in the municipal elections in
Tokyo on 13 July.
Prime Minister Sato's Liberal Democratic Party,
with 54 seats, regained the plurality in the munic-
ipal assembly that it lost four years ago following
a major vote-buying scandal. The Japan Socialist
Party suffered another disastrous defeat, dropping
from first to third place behind.Komeito, which
elected all 25 of its candidates. The Communists,
who now rank fourth in the assembly, doubled their
previous nine seats.
The elections will enhance the prestige of the
government party, which is increasingly preoccupied
with the issues.of Okinawan reversion and the US-
Japan defense relationship. The issues of the cam-
paign, however, were local ones and the results do
not necessarily reflect. voter sentiment. on interna-
tional issues. The Liberal Democrats, whose urban
support has steadily eroded in recent years, will
be encouraged over prospects of recapturing urban
votes from the Socialists in the general elections
to be held: before next year.
The impressive showing of the Japan Communist
Party results in large part from its avoidance of
the hard ideological line adhered to by the Social-
ists, and also the organizational competence of the
Communists. F7 I
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Bulgaria-Pakistan: Sofia has extended its
first economic credit to Rawalpindi. The $8-million
credit is for machinery and equipment and probably
will be repaid with agricultural commodities and
textiles. The credit will help expand mutual trade,
which last year declined to $4.5 million, roughly
half the 1967 level. A Bulgarian delegation is ex-
pected to leave shortly for Pakistan to work out the
final details of the agreement.
I Bolivia: Tensions between General Ovando and
Pres. enc t Sides may be strained to the breaking
point today. Public expressions of support for the
presidential candidacy of Ovando's rival, the popu-
lar mayor of La Paz, retired General Escobar, will
be made in the ca i al.
this public support or Escobar
will come with Siles standing at his side, thus mak-
ing clear that the President supports Escobar's can-
didacy.
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