CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014400120001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 2, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
2 Sep~~mber T969
State Department review completed
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No. 0210/69
2 September 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Israel-Syria: Efforts continue to obtain release
of two Israelis still held in Damascus. (Page 2)
Jordan-Israel: Inability to repair the East Ghor
Canal-means serious economic losses for Jordan.
(Page 5 )
Libya: A military junta has seized power. (Page 6)
Ghana: Decisive outcome of elections should ease
cz~eover from military to civilian rule. (Page 7)
Brazil: The military has assumed "caretaker" direc-
do on on f the country . (Page 8 )
Sweden: The next prime minister will probably be a
notecT-critic of US involvement in Vietnam. (Page 10)
Romania: A trade agreement with India reduces Buch-
are--S S dependence on Moscow for iron ore. (Page 11)
USSR-Africa: Naval visits (Page 12)
Chile: Allende nominated (Page 12)
Ecuador--Cuba: Trade resumption (Page 12)
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South Vietnams The new cabinet in Saigon in-
dicates only limited success in President Thieu's
efforts to expand his political base, but reflects
his concern with soaring inflation.
The cabinet line-up suggests that Thieu was-un-
successful in winning over several of his first
choices,--that he was unable to persuade any impor-
tant Buddhist leaders to participate, and that he
plans to play a more active personal role than he
-did with the Huong cabinet.
-Only seven of the 31 cabinet members contribute
to broadening-the gover:nment's base. Three of them
are minor politicos, representing parties that make
up the progovernment political alliance. Two others-
Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Luu Vien and Dr. Phan
Quang Dan, are nonaligned but veteran politicians
-with some standing in Vietnamese political circles.
Only .one appointment, that of retired general Pham
`Van-DOng as minister of veterans affairs, can be
considered as the inclusion of an antigovernment
element into the new cabinet. Dong is allied with
a prominent opposition figure, Senator Tran Van Don.
The-major cabinet realignment involved the..
economic sector where there: was a wholesale reshuf-
fling of two ministers and three deputies. The
new foreign minister, Senator Tran Van Lam, is a
.decided plus--a prominent southerner whom Thieu ex-
pects can forge a better image of Saigon on the in-
ternational scene. His predecessor was. the target
of considerable cri m articularl from the-
National Assembly.
2 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Israel-5 ria: Efforts are continuing to obtain
the re ease oe two Israeli passengers still held
in Damascus.
Israeli anger is evident and vague threats of
punitive action against Syria have been made, but
Israeli leaders are currently continuing to pursue
the release of their nationals through diplomatic
pressures and other international maneuvers. Tel
Aviv is relying heavily an the efforts of the US
Government and TWA, whom they maintain are primarily
responsible for obtaining the release of the cap-
tives. The Israeli cabinet rnet an 31 August and
called for "energetic international action."~ The
killing yesterday of three Israeli soldiers by Arab
guerrillas on the Israeli-Syrian border seems likely
to heighten tensions further and to increase pres-
sures an the Israeli Government,
The Italian charge in Damascus who has been
conducting the negotiations with the Syrians was not
optimistic about an early release of the two Israelis.
Syrian officials do not appear particularly happy
about the hijacking and have hinted that they mighi;
like t? work out an exchange of the captives--idea-
tified as private citizens--for three Israeli-held
Syrian pilots. Israeli officials have demanded an
unconditional release.
TWA officials are now in Damascus trying to
obtain the release of the prisoners and to resolve
other matters relating to the aircraft. The Inter-
national Federation of Airline Pilots is meeting in
Paris to determine a line of action.
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Vinogradav told
Ambassador Beam yesterday that Moscow had complied
with a US request to forward Washington's view of
the affair to Damascus. According to Ambassador
Beam, Vinogradav was cautiously optimistic that the
incident would "arrange itself," if the Israelis
used restraint.
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The Sgviets have taken no public Stand o~ tie
incident,, although TASS pointed aut that the com-
mandos were "acting in isolation from other guex'ril~.a
organizations." The Soviet press has not mentioned
the detention of the Israeli passengers.
2 Sep 6 9 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Jordan-Israel: Jordan faces losses to an im-
portant sector of its economy because of its inabil-
ity to repair the East Ghor Canal.
An Israeli air attack on 10 August struck the
largely US-funded irrigation canal in five places,
cutting off its main water supply from the Yarmuk
River. Jordanians trying to survey the damage have
been driven off by small-arms fire. The area is
illuminated at night by Israeli searchlights. The
Jordanian Natural Resources Authority has decided
not to attempt repairs unt~,l the safety of crews and
equipment can be assured.
The authority reports that enough water is still
available to irrigate vegetable seedbeds and most
citrus trees, although some of the citrus may be
lost if the canal is not repaired shortly. Little
water remains for some 2,OQ0 acres of banana trees,
however, which can survive only about a month with-
out irrigation. If the canal is not repaired this
week there will be both-the long-term investment
loss of these trees aid the loss of several million
dollars of annual out ut Burin the two-year regrowth
period.
2 Sep 69
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Libya; A military junta has s-sized power.
A group of officers headed by farmer Lt. Col.
Abu Shuwayrib has announced the establishment of a
republic and the formation of a Revolutionary Command
Council, Aside from .Abu Shuwayrib, the composition
of the council is unknown at this time., although
observers believe it to be made up of junior officers.
The. Libyan Parliament and other constitutional bodies
have been dissolved and a curfew has been. im osed.
the army is in control of the country s
a inistrative centers--Benghazi, Tripoli and Bayda.
Sporadic shooting was reported late yesterday and
may indicate that the council's control has not yet
been completed.
Spokesmen for the new government have informed
the US charge in Tripoli that it will respect all
agreements, treaties and rights of oil companies..
The council has asked, meanwhile, that the US reduce
its training activities. at Wheelus Air Sase. It
added that there need be no concern far any members
of the foreign community in Libya.
Press reports quote King Idris, who has been
vacationing in Turkey, as stating that he will re-
turn to Libya. He does not appear hurried and with
the passage of time, the junta may consolidate its
position and make its removal almost impossible.
Crown Prince Hasan, in a radio speech, renounced all
legal and constitutional rights to the throne and.
called upon all Libyans to sugport the new regime.
He has thereby removed himself from the scene.
Recognition by .Egypt and Iraq may help consol-
idate the junta's coup, as the real or imagined
threat of Egyptian intervention ma seriousl dis-
coura a latent o osition.
2 Sep b 9 Cen#raI In#edligenee Beil`leetin
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Ghana: The decisive outcome of the parliament-
ary elections on 29 August should ease the transi-
tion from military to civilian rule scheduled for
the end of this month.
Kofi Busia's Progress Party swamped the oppo-
sition by winning at least 100 of the 140 seats con-
tes"ted. The chances far a smooth changeover were
also enhanced by the orderly nature of the elections
and by Busia's pre-election acceptance of a constiT
tutional provision that temporarily entrusts the
presidency to a commission composed of key military
-and ,police figures,.
Longer range prospects for stability, however,
-are clouded by the fact that tribal feelings ap-
parently played a signifi-cant role in Busia's vic-
tory. Many Progress Party candidates openly ex-
ploited hostility toward the Ewe tribe, the only
.group to vote solidly far the chief opposition
party. Serious problems could arise should the new
rr
y
government view the result as a mandate to ca
.out the tribal purges that some Progress Party mem-
bers are known to desire.
a soft-spoken intellectual, is
Busia himself
,
now slated to become GYiana's first freely elected
prime minister since 1956. He is untested in high
government office, however, and there remains some
question about his effectiveness as a leader. .More-~
over, he is certain to be brought under pressure by
ambitious younger party members, some of whom would
like to replace him with a more vigorous leader.
The new government will inherit intractable
economic problems, stemming largely from Ghana's.
enormous foreign debts, that have only been put in
abeyance by the. junta that has ruled since early
196.6. Busia is likely to continue the junta's harsh
deflationary policies, which will inevitably aggra-
vate discontent with the tight economy and high un-
employment. In foreign affairs, Busia has already
ublicl declared his ali nment with the West.
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Brazil: The military has by-passed the con-
stitutio and assumed "caretaker" direction of the
government.
President Costa e Silva suffered a serious
stroke on 30 August, he is partially paralyzed and
will be unable to exercise authority for at least
30 to 60 days. Some reports indicate that he is
unlikely to recover sufficiently to return to power
at all .
The three military ministers decided to bypass
Vice President Pedro Aleixo, the constitutionally
designated successor, whom they have long distrusted.
They issued Institutional Act 12 stating that during
the President's "temporary impediment" they would
govern under the authority of all previous institu-
tional acts and the constitutian. They took this
action in the President's name and expressly stated
that he will resume power upon recovering his health.
The triumvirate is an ill-assorted group to
govern Brazil for any length of time. The senior
officer, Navy Minister Rademaker Grunewald, is a
tough-minded conservative as is Air Minister Souza
e Mello. widely respected Army Minister Lyra Tavares
is more moderate but is unlikely to jeopardize mili-
tary unity by pushing far a return to constitutional
formalities.
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There has been no open opposition to the tri-
umvirate's takeover, which has the wholehearted
backing of key military men. There is little chance
that the disorganized civilian apposition could put
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.together snore than a token protest. Vice President
Alexo'~~h'as' lit le o ular su ort -and probably will
remain quiet::
`-The gove~nrnental crisis has -come'at a time when
seni~o~ officers were already jockeying for position
for the ''presidential election set-for January 197;.
'A Cenflct'lias"`apparently been developing between'
conservative "old guard" officers and."young Turks"
who favor nationalistic solutions to Brazi~.'s prob--
le~ris aril sweeping economic and social reforms. Tf
->~asta e,Slva is incapacitated fora long period,
this pulling and hauling in the military is a~.mast
certain to increase. A prolonged dispute over anew
leader could jeopardize the militar -unit that is
the~:ke" to Brazilian stabilit .
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2 Sept 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin- 9
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Sweden: Prime Minister Tage Erlander probably
will ~ succeeded., when he retires in mid-.October,
by a noted critic of US involvement in Vietnam.
The decision will. come Inter this month when
the ruling Social Democrats select a successor to
Erlander as both prime minister and party chairman.
Erlander has been grooming the youthful, left-wing
leader Olaf Palme for several years and told. a US
official last week that Palme's accession is "nearly
sure."
The 42-year-old Palme has been a controversial
figure since the early 1950x. His advocacy of left-
wing causes has frightened. many Swedish moderates
and he has been the lightning rod far criticism of
the US role in Vietnam. Mast publicized was his
participation in an anti-American rally in February
1966.
Social Democratic leadezs are obviously trying
to soften Palme's image. Palme himself has recently
taken positions on domestic issues calculated to
curry favor with the party's right wing. Erlander
told the US official that he forsees few changes in
domestic policy under his successor, and that the
US should know that Palme shares his interest in
establishin "more normal" relations with Washingtan.
2 Sept 69 Ceratr~l IntelTiger:ce Bulletin
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Romania: The conclusion of a long-term agree-
ment to purchase iron ore from India will reduce
Bucharest's dependence on Moscow for supplies to
this key industry.
Under a recent agreement, by 1980 Ramania will
purchase up to 23.4 million tons of high and me-
dium-grade iron ore, valued at $133 million. Iron
ore imports from India are projected to increase
from the current 800,000 tons to 2.5 million tons
by 1978. Romania already has contracted for 9 mil
lion tons of this total, with the remainder to be
purchased following Indian acceptance of Romanian
offers to supply machinery and equipment for indus-
trial projects and raw materials.
The USSR, currently Romania's principal source
of .iron ore, supplied about 80 percent of Romania's
import requirements of 3.4 million tons in 1967.
Bucharest is not expected to reduce the current
level of imports from the USSR, but probably wants
to ensure the availability of other sources of iron
ore for the operation of the large new Galati steel
mill complex. The export of Romanian machinery to
India makes the deal particularly attractive to
Bucharest, which is experiencing difficulty. in in-
creasing its machinery exports to the USSR.
The agreement represents New Delhi's first
long-term iron ore export contract, and will rank
Romania second to J an as an ex ort market for
Indian iron ore.
2 Sept 69
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USSR-Africa: Soviet warships have called at
Lagos an Conakry and a visit is expected to Tangier
soon. In addition to showing the flag in African
waters, Moscow is apparently making a gesture of
friendship and support toward three countries where
its relations are either good or steadily improving.
The ships visiting Lagos are likely to continue n
to the Indian Ocean after their port call,
Chile: The Socialist Party has nominated pro-
Castro Senator Salvador Allende as its candidate for
the presidential election in September 1970.. Al-
lende, who has rur~ for president three times before,
almost certainly will have Communist support for his
campaign. He apparently acceded to the demands of
more extreme members of his party for a narrow left-
ist coalition excluding the leftist--led Radical
Party. Allende probably hopes to pick up many Radi-
cal votes even without the formal support of the
r ~,.~..
Ecuador-Cuba: Commercial sales between Ecuador
-and Cu~,a ma soon resume,
e oreign minister
a e ar ier enie a cua or was studying the pos-
sibility of resuming diplomatic or commercial rela-
tions. Pressures built up by Ecuador's deteriorat-
ing trade balance and an abundant spring rice har-
vest have apparently convinced. the Velasco govern-
ment to add Cuba. to its extPns;vp gist of Communist
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(continued)
2 Sept 59
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