CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014400130001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 3, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50.
3 September 1969
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No. 0211/69
3 September 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Ho Chi Minh may be dead or expected to die
in the near future. (Page 1)
Libya: The military junta is consolidating its po-
sition. (Page 3)
Colombia: Changes in government posts will increase
political difficulties. (Page 4)
USSR - East Germany: Berlin (Page 5)
Guyana: To become republic (Page 5)
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C Vietnam: Ho Chi Minh may be dead or so seri-
ously ill that he is expected to expire in the near
future.
A communique issued by North Vietnamese au-
thorities at 0400 Hanoi time on 3 September (1600
2 September EDT) announced that during "the past
few weeks" the 79-year-old leader "has not been
well," and that a team of experts had been assembled
to provide him with constant care. The brief item
strongly suggests that it is an attempt to soften
up the populace for a subsequent death announcement.
Confirmation that Ho has been seriously ill
helps to explain evidence of disarray in North Viet-
nam during the past few months. Since at least
last spring, when the regime held a prolonged
strategy review and presumably set a relatively
firm course for itself, there have been signs of
pulling and tugging within the leadership about
the war, the negotiations, and domestic policies.
Ho's demise would remove the man who has been
the dominant figure in the Vietnamese Communist
movement for nearly 40 years and the one who prob-
ably has exercised a deciding role in settling
persistent policy disputes. His successors are
men who have generally managed to work together
over the years in pursuit of broad common goals,
but whose public statements in themselves reflect
distinct differences of approach and emphasis on
many basic policies.
It seems likely that some kind of consensus
at the top was worked out prior to this first an-
nouncement that Ho is ill. In the short run this
probably will result in the maintenance of con-
tinuity with previous policies, but in the longer
run a new leadership probably will have trouble
making and carrying out key decisions without the
benefit of Ho Chi Minh's personal prestige and
authority.
(continued)
3 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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C Military activity throughout most of South
Vietnam has remained relatively light during the
past several days but there are more-signs that an
I
upsurge in enemy action is likely before long.
3 Sep 69
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C Libya: The military junta is consolidating
its position.
The new regime is not encountering any threat
to its rule,
Some senior military and security officials oya
to King Idris have been arrested and the military
is performing all civilian security functions. The
military is still exercising tight control over the
civilian security forces. It is taking over all
heavy equipment such as armored vehicles.
Radio Libya is broadcasting the names of senior
members of the old government who are allegedly
voicing their support of the junta. To forestall
any public criticism of its actions the junta has
suspended the publication of five Libyan newspapers
and periodicals. In a move indicative of a growing
confidence, the army yesterday lifted the curfew,
which had been imposed Monday, for a three-hour
period.
The Revolutionary Command Council has still
not disclosed its membership, but has announced
that it will administer the country itself rather
than forming a new cabinet.
Soviet comment on the coup has been sparse but
gives cautious approval. In the Arab world the
coup has made Saudi Arabian officials more concerned
over the future of Arab moderates.
3 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Colombia: President Lieras' decision to shuffle
cabinet and gubernatorial posts last week is likely
to aggravate his political difficulties.
Lieras apparently acted because he believed op-
position Conservatives had not fully supported his
government in the month-long crisis over charges
that members of his family and certain government
ministers were guilty of influence peddling. The
affair has been handled ineptly from the beginning;
political infighting has damaged the President's
prestige and widened cracks in the country's National
Front political system.
The President probably will emerge victorious
from the present crisis, but it comes at a bad time
for his government. Tax reform measures pending
before congress are in difficulty and the influence
peddling affair is not yet resolved. In addition,
party conventions to pick candidates for next year's
presidential election are due next month. At the
very least, the changes in government at this time
will reduce the administration's efficienc and add
to its lame duck aspect.
3 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR - East Germany: I
IMoscow's reply to the
Allied initiative on Berlin of 7 August will soon
be forthcoming. The meeting between the Soviet
and East German foreign ministers in Moscow on
:Dwas apparently hastil arranged,
East Ger-
man Foreign Minister Winter's su en trip to meet
with Gromyko suggests that the two sides may have
to resolve some differences concerning the Soviet
reply.
Guyana: In a largely symbolic gesture meant
to increase national self-reliance and confidence,
the parliament voted last week that Guyana will be-
come a republic on 23 February 1970. Prime Minister
Burnham told the parliament that he heads a "so-
cialist" party and accordingly plans to transform
Guyana into a "cooperative republic."
Guyana will keep its ties to the British
Commonwealth. Indeed, Communist opposition leader
Cheddi Jagan can be expected to ridicule the new
republic's economic philosophy and continue calling
for the expropriation necessary to achieve economic
independence and true socialism.
3 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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