CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014500020001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 5, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
501
5 September 1969
State Dept. review completed
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 SECRET
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No. 0213/69
5 September 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Japan: Extremist students are making more use of hit-
and-run tactics. (Page 2)
Brazil: The US ambassador was kidnaped by left-wing
extremists. (Page 3)
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Colombia: A state of siege may be declared. (Page 5)
Africa: The OAU heads of state will convene tomorrow
in is Ababa. (Page 6)
France: The government has introduced a postdevalua-
o fiscal policy. (Page 7)
Norway: Little change is expected to result from the
parliamentary elections. (Page 8)
Hungary-USSR: Moscow is reviewing Hungarian plans for
economic reform. (Page 10)
Ecuador: Disorders have been quelled. (Page 11)
Costa Rica - Eastern Euro e: A Costa Rican mission is
promoting increased trade. (Page 12)
North Korea: Pyongyang still cannot reach its economic
goals. Page 13)
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Turkey: Parliamentary election (Page 14)
Rhodesia: Constitution (Page 15)
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NORTH
VIETNAM
LAOS
THAILAND
Mf"
CAMBODIA
GON
U Minh
Forest `--
CORPS
2c.'
AV ERAGE STRENGTH
OF ENEMY UNITS
Battalion: VC 200- 400
NVA 300- 500
Demilifarized Zone
Regiment: VC 1,000-1,500
NVA 1,2002,000
Division: VC 5,000 7,000
NVA 5,000-8,000
I CORPS
If CORPS
1'' RANK
trig
C t'; rl'ri
Iii CORPS
Capiial Special Zone
SOUTH VIETNAM
9 i 140
MILES
95972 9-69 CIA
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CVietnam: Peking wasted no time in sending a
high-level delegation to talk with the new leader-
ship in Hanoi.
Most other countries had not even announced the
composition of their delegations when Chinese Commu-
nist Premier Chou En-lai arrived in Hanoi to "offer
condolences" on Ho's death. If Chou intends to stay
for the funeral, he has a whole week to confer.
This suggests that the Chinese are eager to demon-
strate their support and press the case for pursuing
the war before the North Vietnamese leaders become
distracted by the arrival of other VIPs. Chou was
initially greeted by a group of North Vietnamese
politburo members headed by Truong Chinh.
Ground action in South Vietnam remains at a
low level. Some of the North Vietnamese units sent
into the delta for the first time late this spring
and summer are being deployed to the southernmost
province of An Xuyen. These units initially gathered
in Chau Doc Province near the Cambodian border, but
some elements now appear to be moving toward the
Communist stronghold in the U Minh Forest. If the
Communists build up their strength in this region
and move out against the surrounding population,
they would pose a substantial threat to South Viet-
namese defenders. Future fighting in the southern
delta could become a real test case for allied plans
to Vietnamize the war. F I
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Japan: Extremist students appear to be making
increasing use of hit-and-run tactics that attract
wide attention and are difficult to combat.
Molotov cocktails hurled on the airport runway
by a small group of radicals delayed the departure
yesterday of Foreign Minister Aichi for Moscow and
Washington. The incident was probably a follow-up
to similar attacks on the US and Soviet embassies
the previous evening.
The use of these tactics may in part result
from the inability of the various radical student
groups to get together on unified action. For ex-
ample, radical students are involved in a violent
factional struggle at Tokyo's Waseda University,
which probably distracted them from a large demon-
stration on Aichi's departure.
Even when the students have succeeded in
mounting a large demonstration, the police have ef-
fectively handled it and even won some popular sup-
port by their measured approach to containing stu-
dent violence.
The radical students are likely to employ vio-
lent tactics to try to prevent the departure of
Prime Minister Sato for the US in late fall.I
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E Brazil: US Ambassador Elbrick was kidnaped
yester7lay afternoon by left-wing extremists.
The ambassador's car was stopped on a Rio de
Janeiro street by four armed men who forced the
chauffeur to drive to an isolated spot. The ambas-
sador was chloroformed and driven away by the as-
sailants who left a manifesto stating conditions
for his release. It was signed by the Revolution-
ary Movement - 8 October (MR-8) and the National
Liberation Action.
The kidnapers have threatened to execute the
ambassador if the government does not publish the
manifesto and subsequently release 15 political
prisoners to Algeria, Mexico, and Chile. Their
names are to be supplied after the government pub-
lishes the manifesto. The government was given 48
hours to publish and an additional 24 hours to re-
lease the prisoners. It apparently has already com-
plied with the first demand and may well release the
prisoners when their names are learned.
The MR-8 is a terrorist group with links to
several dissident Communist and other extreme left-
ist organizations. Many of its members were rounded
up by Brazilian security forces this summer and are
still in prison. It has engaged in robberies and
reportedly planned to undertake rural guerrilla war-
fare.
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Brazilian security forces are on a general mo-
bilization status and every effort is being made to
find the ambassador and his kidnapers. Protection
of other US officials in Brazil has been increased,
and US representatives in other Latin American na--
tions have been warned to tighten security in case
of possible imitative efforts elsewhere. 1 -1
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E Colombia: A state of siege may soon be de-
clared, ostensibly in an attempt to stem increased
kidnapings, guerrilla actions, and student disturb-
ances.
Although President Lleras may be concerned with
the disturbances, the US Embassy believes his action
is directed partly against a senator who has been
attacking the President for influence peddling. The
state of siege will prevent the senator from holding
a mass meeting he had planned for today in Bogota.
The security situation in the country has not
yet reached the crisis stage but five abductions
have occurred in the past two weeks. In addition,
security forces on 1 September killed a former Na-
tional University student leader who was a guerrilla
with the Army of National Liberation. Two other
university students were wounded on 3 September by
school authorities during an attempt to storm the
rector's house.
Action on tax reform measures and other business
has been stalled in Congress, and Lleras' forceful
action may also have been aimed at providing the
impetus needed to et the legislators moving.
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Africa: The Organization of African Unity
(OAU) convening its sixth heads of state confer-
ence in Addis Ababa tomorrow.
The OAU Council of Ministers has been meeting
this week to prepare for the meeting. Its final
recommendations are not yet available, but the is-
sues most likely to be stressed are the perennial
ones: condemnation of white southern African re-
gimes and support to African liberation movements.
The Nigerian war will again demand considerable
attention. General Gowon will be in Addis for the
sessions. A Biafran delegation arrived on Wednesday,
but Biafran leader Ojukwu, although formally invited,
is not expected to attend. The OAU is unlikely to
achieve any success in breaking the impasse between
the two sides and probably will again support the
federal government as it did at last year's meeting
in Algiers.
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France: The government has introduced a fiscal
policy to dampen economic activity in order to en-
sure the effectiveness of the recent devaluation.
The major component of the new policy is a plan
for a balanced budget. This is to be achieved mainly
by cutting expenditures rather than by new revenues?
To ease domestic pressures, the program includes in-
creased pension and wage benefits for large segments
of the population.
The reduction in planned expenditures is aimed
at dampening both domestic consumption and investment
spending in an effort to free resources for export
production. Finance Minister Giscard d'Estaing is
anxious to increase French exports while world de-
mand remains buoyant.
Several other specific measures will also be
taken, including a return to the "voluntary" system
of price restraints that preceded the postdevaluation
price freeze. The government can back this system
with fairly strong sanctions, but it is still a
weaker system than the price controls being given
up.
The Communist-led General Confederation of La-
bor, the largest union in France, has already called
for a "counterattack" against the program and other
unions will probably join in protesting the measure.
The unions are anxious to build a strong case for
their wage demands before labor-management talks
open, probably in October.
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Nor w Little change is expected to result
from the Norwegian parliamentary elections scheduled
for 7-8 September.
The present center-right coalition, which came
to power in 1965 after nearly a generation of Labor
Party government, has suffered no significant ero-
sion in its popularity during its term in office.
The coalition garnered 49.5 percent of the vote in
the last election and 49.1 percent of the most re-
cent sample taken by the Norwegian Gallup organiza-
tion. The comparable figures for the Labor Party
are 43.1 and 44.4 percent.
Efforts by the various political parties to
arouse interest in the elections have been largely
unavailing. According to a poll on the broad is-
sues facing the electorate, Norwegian voters have
no particular complaints, and many contests may be
resolved on the basis of personalities or local
problems.
Despite the stability of the Norwegian polit-
ical scene, there are some elements of uncertainty.
Even before the campaign, nearly half of the members
of Parliament announced their retirement or were not
renominated by their parties. Norway is experi-
encing the greatest generation shift in its leader-
ship since 1945.
Another factor is the sharp expansion of the
electorate to nearly 2.6 million as a result of
lowering the voting age to 20. The various polit-
ical parties have directed much of their campaign
to the young voters, but if Norway follows the Nor-
dic pattern, most of the new voters may prove to
he more apathetic than their elders, thus not sig-
nificantly altering the narrow political balance.
The government may lose two to four seats, re-
ducing slightly the present 80-70 ratio in Parlia-
ment. Although Labor Party leaders assert that a
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minority one-party government under their auspices
is still a distinct possibility, the four government
parties are already dickering for cabinet portfolios
in anticipation of their return to office. In either
case, the resulting government would be more vulner-
able to shifts in parliamentary and public opinion
and could thus be pected to avoid controversy.
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Hungary-USSR: The Soviet party central commit-
tee has invited a delegation of Hungarian economic
reform experts to Moscow for what appears to be a
detailed review of their policies.
For well over a year, the Soviet leadership
has maintained a noncommittal public posture on the
Hungarian experiments. These feature a substantial
decentralization of economic authority. In the
process the party will also pass some of its author-
ity to the economic ministers. Moscow, however, has
kept a close eye on the reforms and has occasionally
called for explanations of various trends.
This current meeting follows on the heels of
the Kadar-Brezhnev talks in the Crimea and Kosygin's
visit to Budapest, and it, may be more than the usual
Hungarian exercise in reassuring the cautious So-
viets. The announced purpose of the visit is to
"study the experience of CPSU organizational work
in the field of guiding
the
national economy."
More-
over, one of the members
of
the delegation is
a party
official responsible for
a
plant which was the
scene
of a strike last year.
The
Hungarians may be
called
upon to explain the measures which the party has
taken to ensure continued control over the economy.
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Ecuador: President Velasco Ibarra has capped
one year in office by quelling disorders in major
cities.
The disturbances began on 28 August after the
legislature turned down a petition by the country's
mayors to extend their term of office from three
years to four. The mayors received strong support
from municipal workers, who tied up both Quito and
Guayaquil with strikes and disorders.
In a forceful speech on Tuesday, President
Velasco emphasized that he would protect the pre-
rogatives of the legislative branch and was prepared
to use the security forces to back up his decision.
The protest movement collapsed shortly thereafter.
I I
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Costa Rica - Eastern Europe; A four-man trade
mission left San Jose yesterday to promote Costa
Rican coffee sales in Eastern Europe.
Powerful coffee interests have pressed for the
mission because they want to avoid unsold surpluses,
even at the expense of the establishment of Soviet
or other Communist commercial offices in San Jose.
In July the legislative assembly approved the trade
mission in a resolution calling for the government
to take all necessary steps to dea:L with the coffee
surplus, including those leading to new commercial
relations. Coffee growers expect to have an ex-
portable surplus of 310,000 bags above the quota for
the 1969-70 coffee year.
The USSR made its first large purchase of Costa
Rican coffee from last year's excess crop. It has
made clear, however, that further purchases depend
on the establishment of a trade mission in San Jose.
Poland, which has a commercial office in Costa Rica,
has also offered to buy surplus coffee in return for
Costa Rican purchase of Polish products. A proposed
trade agreement between Costa Rica and Bulgaria,
under study for some time and near completion, would
permit a Bulgarian office in San Jose.
Increased Communist presence in Costa Rica is
bound to be resisted by strong anti-Communist sec-
tors and could become an issue in the campaign for
the general elections in 1970. Costa Rica's re-
ceptivity to increased contact with Eastern Europe
will be influenced by the marketing crisis faced by
the coffee industry and by the fact that a number
of Latin American countries have recently opened
diplomatic and commercial relations with Communist
countries.
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North Korea: The chairman of the state plan-
ning commission has been relieved of his post in a
move which reflects Pyongyang's continuing failure
to achieve projected economic goals.
Chong chun-taek had held the post for the past
nine years. The status of his concurrent position
as vice premier of the cabinet is unclear. He has
been replaced on the planning commission by the
finance minister, whose responsibilities have been
assumed by the vice minister of finance.
The state planning commission is responsible
for drawing up development plans for the economy
and coordinating the activities of the individual
ministries as they work to achieve target goals
within the plan. It is, therefore, directly ac-
countable in the chain of command for the success
or failure of the current seven-year plan, originally
scheduled for completion in 1967 but extended for
three years in 1966.
Party leaders have been eager to announce some
solid economic achievements during the 24th anni-
versary celebrations of the Korean Workers' Party
which take place next month. The Korean economy,
however, has been limping along for years, in large
part because of heavy defense spending, and few
major goals are likely to be reached this year.
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Turkey: The campaign for the parliamentary
election in October, which has been rather bland
thus far, is expected to become more heated, espe-
cially if extremist: elements decide to carry the
campaign to the streets and campuses. The results
of the recent primaries show that there will be at
least a 20 to 30 percent turnover in the representa-
tion of each of the two major parties. The right
wing of the incumbent Justice Party appears to have
strengthened its position, raising the possibility
of increasing intransigence from this element should
the party led by Prime Minister Demirel win the elec-
tion as now seems probable.
(continued)
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Rhodesia: Prime Minister Ian Smith's government
has announced that it will soon submit five bills to
Parliament to pave the way for its new constitution.
A government minister has stated, however, that Smith
will not declare a republic until after the next gen-
eral elections, which will be held sometime before
June 1970. In delaying the formal declaration of a
republic as long as possible, Smith probably hopes
that some of the Western nations still maintaining
missions in Salisbury will stay on. 25X1
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