CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014700090001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 13, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

? Approved p,r' Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T0 A01470! 9 e f
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
51e.
13 October 1969
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No. 0245/69
13 October 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: New surges of enemy hostilities are prob-
aling planned. (Page 1)
E t-Israel: Nasir has vetoed participation in
Rhodes-type peace negotiations. (Page 2)
India: Struggle for control of the Congress Party
has again broken into the open. (Page 3)
Sudan: The Revolutionary Command Council may force
the prime minister to resign. (Page 4)
Bolivia: Ovando says Bolivia would accept Cuba back
into the OAS. (Page 5)
Chile: Frei considers the military "confrontation"
wi his government to be well in hand. (Page 6)
Surinam: Another coalition government appears almost
certain. (Page 7)
Libya: Public criticism of the military regime has
Begun to appear. (Page 8)
North Korea - Western Europe: Pyongyang is making
some progress in establishing new trade offices.
(Page 9)
East Germany: Two Western correspondents have been
Barred from East Berlin. (Page 10)
Bulgaria: Party boss Zhivkov plays a rare role of
independent thinker. (Page 11)
Yugoslavia: A new chief of the Yugoslav news agency
has been appointed. (Page 12)
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NORTH
VIETNAM
Demilitarized Zone
AVERAGE STRENGTH
OF ENEMY UNITS
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N V A 300- 500
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NVA 1,200-2,000
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E Vietnam:
South Vietnamo Over the weekend the relatively
low level of Communist military activity was punctu-
ated by sporadic shellings and ground combat.
In the central coastal area, Nha Trang airbase,
which was turned over to South Vietnamese control
this weekend, was the target of two enemy shellings
on 11 and 12 October resulting in four South Viet-
namese killed and 17 wounded. An enemy mortar bom-
bardment of a training center north of Nha Trang
killed 11 South Vietnamese soldiers and wounded 28
others. Enemy gunners also attacked the South Viet-
namese in the Demilitarized Zone area. Several sig-
nificant ground engagements between South Vietnamese
and Communist troops took place in the delta provinces
southwest of Saigon.
The recent enemy attack patterns reinforce other
indications that Communist strategy has recently
shifted from coordinated countrywide "high points"
to localized actions planned and executed separately
in various sections of the country. New surges of
hostilities are probably being planned by enemy
forces in other areas of South Vietnam.
North Vietnam: Premier Pham Van Dong will be-
gin a visit to the Soviet Union today.
Dong will be accompanied to the USSR by polit-
buro member and economic affairs expert Le Thanh
Nghi, according to an earlier announcement from
Hanoi. They probably will negotiate new aid agree-
ments with the Soviets as well as discuss the Paris
talks and the war. Dong is believed to be one of
Hanoi's key negotiating strategists. His extended
visit to Moscow is probably also designed to under-
score the new leadership's determination to strike
a balance in its relations with China and the USSR.
Dong's current trip abroad began with attend-
ance at China's National Day festivities on 1 Octo-
ber. He then briefly passed through Moscow en route
to East Germany's National Day celebrations, and has
been touring in East Germany. (Map)
13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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Eg t--Israel: President Nasir has publicly
vetoed Egyptian participation in any Rhodes-type
peace negotiations with Israel.
There were earlier indications that Egypt was
looking with some favor on discussions using the
Rhodes formula that had brought about the armistice
agreement reached between the parties in 1949. Un-
der this format direct talks would be held between
the parties in the presence of the UN mediator and
indirect negotiations would be conducted by a medi-
ator acting as a channel of communication. The plan
would have allowed the Israelis, who desire face-
to-face talks, to publicize this aspect of the dis-
cussions, while the Arabs, who oppose any meetings
as long as Israel occupies Arab territory, could
have billed the talks as indirect.
It is unclear what is behind this apparent re-
versal of policy in Cairo. In part, Nasir may be
trying to quiet public discussion of the problem in
order not to complicate the diplomatic maneuvering.
He may also be responding to internal political
problems or pressure from Palestinian groups that
are strongly opposed to such talks. Yet another
reason for his veto might be the heavy current Is-
raeli publicity favoring the direct aspects
Rhodes meetings.
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13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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India: The struggle for control of the Congress
Party has once again broken into the open.
Less than two months after its ruling Congress
working committee had adopted a "unity resolution,"
the Congress Party appears headed for another show-
down between Prime Minister Gandhi and her old-guard
opponents. In the last round, fought in July and
August over election of India's new president, Mrs.
Gandhi routed her foes.
The current crisis was precipitated by an open
letter from Mrs. Gandhi and five of her associates
on the working committee to Congress Party president
Nijalingappa, charging him with "arbitrarily" remov-
ing some of the prime minister's supporters from po-
sitions of power within the party. Nijalingappa re-
sponded that he had not yet acted to force Mrs. Gan-
dhi's allies from their positions but implied that
he intended to do so.
Mrs. Gandhi and her followers apparently intend
to move against their opponents at the next meeting
of the working committee, scheduled for 30 October.
Presumably the prime minister believes that she now
has the support of a majority within this body. A
noteworthy addition to her forces for the coming
contest is the politically powerful home minister,
Y. B. Chavan, who joined Mrs. Gandhi in signing the
letter to Nijalingappa. Chavan opposed Mrs. Gandhi
during the presidential race, but subsequently acted
as peace-maker between the prime minister and her
party opponents.
13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Sudan: The ruling Revolutionary Command Coun-
cil (RCC in iartoum may soon force the resignation
of Prime Minister Awadalla\
The RCC apparently is irritated by Awadallah's
publi .ic nsistence that Communists are necessary for
the advancement: of the revolution, and at Awadallah's
recent "impolite" speech at the UN in which he was
extremely critical of 'US policy in the Middle East.
From the onset of its rule last May, the mili-
tary c~ttque has branded its economic policies as
"socialist," but has carefully avoided giving its
political coloration any label. The RCC adopted
this expedient to guard against adverse reaction
from the largely conservative population over the
presence of a dozen or more alleged Communists in
the civilian cabinet and within the RCC itself.
Eer reports had suggested that there was
a deepening split between the pro-Egyptian national-
ist elements and the Communists in the government
and in the military.
cabinet changes in the offing would include the
removal of the Communist ministers. The ousting of
the Communists would meet one of the demands being
made by traditional political forces as_A prereaui-
..._ i_ r-__ ?'- - - - - r'te'-"'
Central intelligence Bulletin
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Bolivia: President Ovando said in a press con-
ference on 9 October that Bolivia would accept Cuba
back into the Organization of American States (OAS).
This is the first time that the head of any
Latin American country has made such a positive state-
ment since Cuba was expelled from the OAS in 1964.
Ovando explained that Bolivia respects national self-
determination and that the Cuban people's demonstrated
approval of Castro is sufficient reason for readmis-
sion to the organization. Ovando's logic is a natural
outgrowth of his own attempts to obtain international
recognition after overthrowing the Bolivian Govern-
ment last month.
Ovando did not say specifically whether Bolivia
would re-establish diplomatic relations with Cuba.
He pointed out that "until recently" Cuba has inter-
fered in Bolivian internal affairs, but expressed
hope that such interference would cease now that his
country has a new government.
13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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Chile: President Frei considers the Chilean
military's "con rontation" with his government to be
well in hand, but discontent still exists
(Frei has ordered that loans be made immediately
to a a ed forces personnel from military pension
funds, which will be increased by a government con-
tribution of nearly half the cash necessary for the
loans. The loans will range from about $35 for en-
listed men to $91 for officers. Neither the army
chief of staff nor younger officers consider this
move an adequate response to growing demands for
military pay increases. The Communist Party newspaper
called them " miserable: bone thrown to the glorious
armed forces."
The President himself, according to army leaks,
orde -the retirement of six officers whose contin-
gents demonstrated their discontent over low military
pay by deliberately arriving late for an Independence
Day reli ious ceremony. 1 __1 25X1
charges of invo vemen with "subversive"
groups were brought against 50 officers during last
week's annual consideration of promotions and assign-
ments by top generals. Army personnel have now been
warned to avoid such groups, which allegedly repre-
sent leftist, rightist, and government party politi-
cal interests, or to be prepared to resign. At the
same meeting, several generals discussed conditions
in the army that must be i roved promptly to avoid
trouble in the coming year
President Frei evidently will soon name one of
his most reliable civilian associates minister of
defense and will increase his efforts to modernize
military equipme i der to ease restlessn
among the military.
13 Oct 69
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Surinam: No party will be able to win a ma-
jority in the elections scheduled for 24 October,
and another coalition government appears almost
certain.
The elections will mark the end of the nine-
month interim government headed by Arthur May that
took over after labor unrest and cabinet dissension
toppled the administration of Johan Pengel. The
United Hindu Party and the National Progressive
Party seem to be in the strongest position between
them to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition.
These two parties now control 14 of the 39-seat
Statten and stand to gain others from the Surinam
National Party because of widespread dissatisfaction
over its performance and the well-known corruption
of its leadership. Former minister-president Pengel
is expected to lead the National Party in forming a
strong opposition, however.
The incoming administration will be faced with
important decisions regarding independence, the bor-
der dispute with Guyana, and the direction the coun-
try will take in solving other problems such as un-
employment and the development of resources.
No major disturbances are expected, but racial
tensions might produce isolated incidents. Local
leaders appear confident that police are capable of
13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Libya: Lablic criticism of the military regime
has begun to appear.
Despite stringent press controls, the editor of
a Beng azi daily recently took the new government to
task for its failure to adopt clear and definitive
policies. He pointed out the need for positive and
basic deg',sions that would help restore life in Libya
Almost simultaneously, a leaflet was clandes-
tinely--distributed in the Cyrenaican city of Benghazi
accusing the Revolutionary Command Council of seek-
ing to establish an autocratic military government.
The leaflet called upon Cyrenaicans, the traditional
supporters of the monarchy, to demand the establish-
ment of free and independent political institutions.
This criticism may have the support of educated
middle class Libyans who have been frozen out of po-
litical life, and believe the junta needs their pro-
fessional administrative skills. They may hope they
will be able to pressure the junta into sharing its
political power. The military is unlikely to sur-
render its direction of government affairs, however,
and if the ..calticism continues it may adopt rqp_res-
13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 8
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North Korea - Western Europe: Pyongyang is mak-
ing some progress in establishing new trade offices~in
Western Europe.
Switzerland has indicated it will allow North
Korea to open a small semi-official trade office in
Zurich. The Koreans also are expected to re-estab-
lish a trade mission in Vienna after an Austrian -
North Korean trade agreement is signed later this
month.ongyang has approached both Finland and
Italy, but their reaction is not yet known. The
Koreans have had an unofficial trade mission in Paris
since 1968.
Pyongyang's endeavors are partly aimed at chang-
ing its international image, but North Korea also is
anxious to have operating bases in Western Europe
that will facilitate commercial negotiations. With
the drying up of significant Communist grants over
the past eight years, purchases of Western industrial
goods have become more important to North Korean
economic expansion.
Although credit restrictions limit North Korean
purchases in Western Europe, Pyongyang has turned in-
creasingly to the West for pharmaceutical plants,
ocean vessels, electric power equipment, machine
tools, and light industrial plants. Pyongyang is
presently negotiating with several West European
firms for petrochemical plants. In 1968 imports
from the industrial West of machinery and equipment,
including whole plants, totaled,13 million, double
that imported in 1967.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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East Germany: Pankow's barring of some Western
correspondents from East Berlin may be both pressure
on the newsmen to present a better image of East
Germany and a reflection of Pankow's sensitivity to
antiregime incidents during last week's anniversary
celebrations.
In separate incidents one American and a Brit-
ish journalist were turned back by East German bor-
der authorities on 7 October. The American, who
wrote a rather candid article about party chief Ul-
bricht several months ago, was told his presence in
East Berlin was "undesired." He was again refused
entry the next day and, believes the article may have
been the reason.
American journalists who attended a reception
in East Berlin on 8 October were told by an East
German Foreign Ministry press official that Western
journalists would have to write in a manner accept-
able to Pankow if they wished to be allowed to
travel in East Germany and East Berlin. The East
Germans attempted similar coercion following the
Czechoslovak crisis last year, hoping to prevent
Western reporting of pro-Dubcek demonstrations.
They lifted the ban after the Allies approached
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V G76G7 u4 tIU ugunce Duuezz7L
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Bulgaria: jParty boss Todor Zhivkov has gone
out of his way to show that he has views of his own
on such questions as the Sino-Soviet dispute and
relations among the Balkan nations.
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Zhivkov spoke frankly on
ie relations with China. He said that the cri-
sis had eased and there would be no war; he predicted
that political relations would improve greatly in the
next five years.
Z iv ov evidently took a soft line on Czecho-
slov , emphasizing that Bulgaria's participation
in the intervention was limited to one battalion.
While giving due recognition to the inability of
the Czechoslovak leaders to control the situation
at that time, he called them "well meaning, honest
Communists.
U-nee-a-that relations closer to home, Zhivkov discounted
the conflict could arise from frictions
with Yugoslavia over Macedonia. He spoke in a dis-
paraging manner of Romania's Ceausescu, describing
him as an egoist, but characterized relations with
the Romanian people as very good. Concerning his
non-Communist neighbors, Zhivkov emphasized Bul-
garia's special efforts to build good relations with
Turkey and Greece.
V Such candid remarks
lpropaDiy are part
ren effort By ' ivcov to establish an image
as a responsible member of the international commu-
nity who is not totally in Moscow's shadow.
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Yugoslavia: Teodor Olic has been appointed
chief of the Yugoslav news agency Tanyug, replacing
Momcilo Pudar, who was forced to resign last June.
Pudar got into trouble when he allowed publi-
cation of a sharply worded dispatch citing the rea-
sons why Yugoslavia would not attend the Interna-
tional Communist Conference in Moscow. The article
accurately reflected the party's position, but it
appeared at a time when Belgrade was trying to patch
up its differences with Moscow. Subsequently, the
party issued a statement calling the dispatch unof-
ficial.
Little is known about Olic. At one time he
worked for Rad, the trade union newspaper, and he
was editor -of-the Tanyug's foreign language news
desk before he was appointed to his new post. F_
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