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December 15, 2016
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May 23, 2003
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October 13, 1969
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? Approved p,r' Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T0 A01470! 9 e f DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin Secret 51e. 13 October 1969 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO14700090001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO14700090001-9 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO14700090001-9 Approver Release 2003/6T1c : ~TATRDP79TW75A014700090001-9 No. 0245/69 13 October 1969 Central Intelligence Bulletin CONTENTS Vietnam: New surges of enemy hostilities are prob- aling planned. (Page 1) E t-Israel: Nasir has vetoed participation in Rhodes-type peace negotiations. (Page 2) India: Struggle for control of the Congress Party has again broken into the open. (Page 3) Sudan: The Revolutionary Command Council may force the prime minister to resign. (Page 4) Bolivia: Ovando says Bolivia would accept Cuba back into the OAS. (Page 5) Chile: Frei considers the military "confrontation" wi his government to be well in hand. (Page 6) Surinam: Another coalition government appears almost certain. (Page 7) Libya: Public criticism of the military regime has Begun to appear. (Page 8) North Korea - Western Europe: Pyongyang is making some progress in establishing new trade offices. (Page 9) East Germany: Two Western correspondents have been Barred from East Berlin. (Page 10) Bulgaria: Party boss Zhivkov plays a rare role of independent thinker. (Page 11) Yugoslavia: A new chief of the Yugoslav news agency has been appointed. (Page 12) SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO14700090001-9 Approved For Rel as 2003/06/1$E ET79T00975A09 %0090001-9 NORTH VIETNAM Demilitarized Zone AVERAGE STRENGTH OF ENEMY UNITS Battalion: VC 200- 400 N V A 300- 500 Regiment: VC 1,000-1,500 NVA 1,200-2,000 -'HU YEN LAC K HANH/ h . `A ', 114 G Barr rt1~N 1_... _. irVH NIH V SOUTH VIETNAM MILES KHANH' HOA Nha Trang si~rFN ice' ! I GAM UllC ! NINH I_ THLJAN /~ d3NH III CORPS 25X1 SECRET Approvec,,,Foer Release 2003/bli(3R AT-RDP79T&375A014700090001-9 E Vietnam: South Vietnamo Over the weekend the relatively low level of Communist military activity was punctu- ated by sporadic shellings and ground combat. In the central coastal area, Nha Trang airbase, which was turned over to South Vietnamese control this weekend, was the target of two enemy shellings on 11 and 12 October resulting in four South Viet- namese killed and 17 wounded. An enemy mortar bom- bardment of a training center north of Nha Trang killed 11 South Vietnamese soldiers and wounded 28 others. Enemy gunners also attacked the South Viet- namese in the Demilitarized Zone area. Several sig- nificant ground engagements between South Vietnamese and Communist troops took place in the delta provinces southwest of Saigon. The recent enemy attack patterns reinforce other indications that Communist strategy has recently shifted from coordinated countrywide "high points" to localized actions planned and executed separately in various sections of the country. New surges of hostilities are probably being planned by enemy forces in other areas of South Vietnam. North Vietnam: Premier Pham Van Dong will be- gin a visit to the Soviet Union today. Dong will be accompanied to the USSR by polit- buro member and economic affairs expert Le Thanh Nghi, according to an earlier announcement from Hanoi. They probably will negotiate new aid agree- ments with the Soviets as well as discuss the Paris talks and the war. Dong is believed to be one of Hanoi's key negotiating strategists. His extended visit to Moscow is probably also designed to under- score the new leadership's determination to strike a balance in its relations with China and the USSR. Dong's current trip abroad began with attend- ance at China's National Day festivities on 1 Octo- ber. He then briefly passed through Moscow en route to East Germany's National Day celebrations, and has been touring in East Germany. (Map) 13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1 SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A014700090001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/ 1 C JA'~RDP79T00975A0 0090001-9 Eg t--Israel: President Nasir has publicly vetoed Egyptian participation in any Rhodes-type peace negotiations with Israel. There were earlier indications that Egypt was looking with some favor on discussions using the Rhodes formula that had brought about the armistice agreement reached between the parties in 1949. Un- der this format direct talks would be held between the parties in the presence of the UN mediator and indirect negotiations would be conducted by a medi- ator acting as a channel of communication. The plan would have allowed the Israelis, who desire face- to-face talks, to publicize this aspect of the dis- cussions, while the Arabs, who oppose any meetings as long as Israel occupies Arab territory, could have billed the talks as indirect. It is unclear what is behind this apparent re- versal of policy in Cairo. In part, Nasir may be trying to quiet public discussion of the problem in order not to complicate the diplomatic maneuvering. He may also be responding to internal political problems or pressure from Palestinian groups that are strongly opposed to such talks. Yet another reason for his veto might be the heavy current Is- raeli publicity favoring the direct aspects Rhodes meetings. 25X1 13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2 SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/11 CIA-RDP79TO09 - Approver Release 2003/004 CRS'-FDP79T 75A014700090001-9 India: The struggle for control of the Congress Party has once again broken into the open. Less than two months after its ruling Congress working committee had adopted a "unity resolution," the Congress Party appears headed for another show- down between Prime Minister Gandhi and her old-guard opponents. In the last round, fought in July and August over election of India's new president, Mrs. Gandhi routed her foes. The current crisis was precipitated by an open letter from Mrs. Gandhi and five of her associates on the working committee to Congress Party president Nijalingappa, charging him with "arbitrarily" remov- ing some of the prime minister's supporters from po- sitions of power within the party. Nijalingappa re- sponded that he had not yet acted to force Mrs. Gan- dhi's allies from their positions but implied that he intended to do so. Mrs. Gandhi and her followers apparently intend to move against their opponents at the next meeting of the working committee, scheduled for 30 October. Presumably the prime minister believes that she now has the support of a majority within this body. A noteworthy addition to her forces for the coming contest is the politically powerful home minister, Y. B. Chavan, who joined Mrs. Gandhi in signing the letter to Nijalingappa. Chavan opposed Mrs. Gandhi during the presidential race, but subsequently acted as peace-maker between the prime minister and her party opponents. 13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A014700090001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/S P79T00975AO f471~0090001-9 Sudan: The ruling Revolutionary Command Coun- cil (RCC in iartoum may soon force the resignation of Prime Minister Awadalla\ The RCC apparently is irritated by Awadallah's publi .ic nsistence that Communists are necessary for the advancement: of the revolution, and at Awadallah's recent "impolite" speech at the UN in which he was extremely critical of 'US policy in the Middle East. From the onset of its rule last May, the mili- tary c~ttque has branded its economic policies as "socialist," but has carefully avoided giving its political coloration any label. The RCC adopted this expedient to guard against adverse reaction from the largely conservative population over the presence of a dozen or more alleged Communists in the civilian cabinet and within the RCC itself. Eer reports had suggested that there was a deepening split between the pro-Egyptian national- ist elements and the Communists in the government and in the military. cabinet changes in the offing would include the removal of the Communist ministers. The ousting of the Communists would meet one of the demands being made by traditional political forces as_A prereaui- ..._ i_ r-__ ?'- - - - - r'te'-"' Central intelligence Bulletin SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO14700090001-9 Approved or Release 2003'C*f:Z1E-RDP79T 75A014700090001-9 Bolivia: President Ovando said in a press con- ference on 9 October that Bolivia would accept Cuba back into the Organization of American States (OAS). This is the first time that the head of any Latin American country has made such a positive state- ment since Cuba was expelled from the OAS in 1964. Ovando explained that Bolivia respects national self- determination and that the Cuban people's demonstrated approval of Castro is sufficient reason for readmis- sion to the organization. Ovando's logic is a natural outgrowth of his own attempts to obtain international recognition after overthrowing the Bolivian Govern- ment last month. Ovando did not say specifically whether Bolivia would re-establish diplomatic relations with Cuba. He pointed out that "until recently" Cuba has inter- fered in Bolivian internal affairs, but expressed hope that such interference would cease now that his country has a new government. 13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5 SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A014700090001-9 25X1 Approved For Rel4 t 2003/d BCJ ' DP79T00975AOt 0090001-9 Chile: President Frei considers the Chilean military's "con rontation" with his government to be well in hand, but discontent still exists (Frei has ordered that loans be made immediately to a a ed forces personnel from military pension funds, which will be increased by a government con- tribution of nearly half the cash necessary for the loans. The loans will range from about $35 for en- listed men to $91 for officers. Neither the army chief of staff nor younger officers consider this move an adequate response to growing demands for military pay increases. The Communist Party newspaper called them " miserable: bone thrown to the glorious armed forces." The President himself, according to army leaks, orde -the retirement of six officers whose contin- gents demonstrated their discontent over low military pay by deliberately arriving late for an Independence Day reli ious ceremony. 1 __1 25X1 charges of invo vemen with "subversive" groups were brought against 50 officers during last week's annual consideration of promotions and assign- ments by top generals. Army personnel have now been warned to avoid such groups, which allegedly repre- sent leftist, rightist, and government party politi- cal interests, or to be prepared to resign. At the same meeting, several generals discussed conditions in the army that must be i roved promptly to avoid trouble in the coming year President Frei evidently will soon name one of his most reliable civilian associates minister of defense and will increase his efforts to modernize military equipme i der to ease restlessn among the military. 13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T0 - Approve or Release 2003/06ING1 I -' DP79TQM75A014700090001-9 Surinam: No party will be able to win a ma- jority in the elections scheduled for 24 October, and another coalition government appears almost certain. The elections will mark the end of the nine- month interim government headed by Arthur May that took over after labor unrest and cabinet dissension toppled the administration of Johan Pengel. The United Hindu Party and the National Progressive Party seem to be in the strongest position between them to win enough seats to form a ruling coalition. These two parties now control 14 of the 39-seat Statten and stand to gain others from the Surinam National Party because of widespread dissatisfaction over its performance and the well-known corruption of its leadership. Former minister-president Pengel is expected to lead the National Party in forming a strong opposition, however. The incoming administration will be faced with important decisions regarding independence, the bor- der dispute with Guyana, and the direction the coun- try will take in solving other problems such as un- employment and the development of resources. No major disturbances are expected, but racial tensions might produce isolated incidents. Local leaders appear confident that police are capable of 13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A014700090001-9 25X1 Approved For Releasl' 2003/06/$F1'P79T00975A01O0090001-9 Libya: Lablic criticism of the military regime has begun to appear. Despite stringent press controls, the editor of a Beng azi daily recently took the new government to task for its failure to adopt clear and definitive policies. He pointed out the need for positive and basic deg',sions that would help restore life in Libya Almost simultaneously, a leaflet was clandes- tinely--distributed in the Cyrenaican city of Benghazi accusing the Revolutionary Command Council of seek- ing to establish an autocratic military government. The leaflet called upon Cyrenaicans, the traditional supporters of the monarchy, to demand the establish- ment of free and independent political institutions. This criticism may have the support of educated middle class Libyans who have been frozen out of po- litical life, and believe the junta needs their pro- fessional administrative skills. They may hope they will be able to pressure the junta into sharing its political power. The military is unlikely to sur- render its direction of government affairs, however, and if the ..calticism continues it may adopt rqp_res- 13 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 8 SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11: CIA-RDP79TOO975AO14700-090001-9 Approve,jor Release 2003/06WBI '-' DP79TQ 975A014700090001-9 North Korea - Western Europe: Pyongyang is mak- ing some progress in establishing new trade offices~in Western Europe. Switzerland has indicated it will allow North Korea to open a small semi-official trade office in Zurich. The Koreans also are expected to re-estab- lish a trade mission in Vienna after an Austrian - North Korean trade agreement is signed later this month.ongyang has approached both Finland and Italy, but their reaction is not yet known. The Koreans have had an unofficial trade mission in Paris since 1968. Pyongyang's endeavors are partly aimed at chang- ing its international image, but North Korea also is anxious to have operating bases in Western Europe that will facilitate commercial negotiations. With the drying up of significant Communist grants over the past eight years, purchases of Western industrial goods have become more important to North Korean economic expansion. Although credit restrictions limit North Korean purchases in Western Europe, Pyongyang has turned in- creasingly to the West for pharmaceutical plants, ocean vessels, electric power equipment, machine tools, and light industrial plants. Pyongyang is presently negotiating with several West European firms for petrochemical plants. In 1968 imports from the industrial West of machinery and equipment, including whole plants, totaled,13 million, double that imported in 1967. Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO14700090001-9 Approved For Release 2003/06/' IEY~- ?79T00975AO 0090001-9 East Germany: Pankow's barring of some Western correspondents from East Berlin may be both pressure on the newsmen to present a better image of East Germany and a reflection of Pankow's sensitivity to antiregime incidents during last week's anniversary celebrations. In separate incidents one American and a Brit- ish journalist were turned back by East German bor- der authorities on 7 October. The American, who wrote a rather candid article about party chief Ul- bricht several months ago, was told his presence in East Berlin was "undesired." He was again refused entry the next day and, believes the article may have been the reason. American journalists who attended a reception in East Berlin on 8 October were told by an East German Foreign Ministry press official that Western journalists would have to write in a manner accept- able to Pankow if they wished to be allowed to travel in East Germany and East Berlin. The East Germans attempted similar coercion following the Czechoslovak crisis last year, hoping to prevent Western reporting of pro-Dubcek demonstrations. They lifted the ban after the Allies approached . I . - , . - - V G76G7 u4 tIU ugunce Duuezz7L SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RD - Approvedf,pr Release 2003/041` B A DP79TOQ,W5A014700090001-9 Bulgaria: jParty boss Todor Zhivkov has gone out of his way to show that he has views of his own on such questions as the Sino-Soviet dispute and relations among the Balkan nations. 25X1 Zhivkov spoke frankly on ie relations with China. He said that the cri- sis had eased and there would be no war; he predicted that political relations would improve greatly in the next five years. Z iv ov evidently took a soft line on Czecho- slov , emphasizing that Bulgaria's participation in the intervention was limited to one battalion. While giving due recognition to the inability of the Czechoslovak leaders to control the situation at that time, he called them "well meaning, honest Communists. U-nee-a-that relations closer to home, Zhivkov discounted the conflict could arise from frictions with Yugoslavia over Macedonia. He spoke in a dis- paraging manner of Romania's Ceausescu, describing him as an egoist, but characterized relations with the Romanian people as very good. Concerning his non-Communist neighbors, Zhivkov emphasized Bul- garia's special efforts to build good relations with Turkey and Greece. V Such candid remarks lpropaDiy are part ren effort By ' ivcov to establish an image as a responsible member of the international commu- nity who is not totally in Moscow's shadow. Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO14700090001-9 Approved For Regea a 2003/6*4RDP79T00975A('14700090001-9 Yugoslavia: Teodor Olic has been appointed chief of the Yugoslav news agency Tanyug, replacing Momcilo Pudar, who was forced to resign last June. Pudar got into trouble when he allowed publi- cation of a sharply worded dispatch citing the rea- sons why Yugoslavia would not attend the Interna- tional Communist Conference in Moscow. The article accurately reflected the party's position, but it appeared at a time when Belgrade was trying to patch up its differences with Moscow. Subsequently, the party issued a statement calling the dispatch unof- ficial. Little is known about Olic. At one time he worked for Rad, the trade union newspaper, and he was editor -of-the Tanyug's foreign language news desk before he was appointed to his new post. F_ Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA RDP79T00975A014700090001-9 Secre*aproved For Re,se 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0700090001-9 Secret Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO14700090001-9