CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014800020002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 5, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 18, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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dret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Top. Secret
c196:
18 October 1969
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State Dept. review completed
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Senator tells acquaintances that
t He US may accept a coalition government. (Page 1)
USSR - Arms Control: Moscow may delay early agree-
ment on a seabeds treaty. (Page 4)
Peru: The government may be successful in a rac -
ing large-scale foreign investment. (Page 11)
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I South Vietnam: A prominent South Vietnamese
political figure reportedly is telling local acquaint-
ances that the US may be forced by domestic opposition
to abandon President Thieu and accept a coalition gov-
ernment.
Senator Tran Van Don, who recently returned from
a trip to the United States, has stressed his surprise
at the extent of antiwar sentiment he encountered.
Don claims that unidentified US officials indicated
to him that the US would do almost anything, short of
surrender, to end the war.
Don, who has been increasingly critical of Presi-
dent Thieu in recent months, is highly ambitious. He
has made no secret of his desire to be prime minister
in any future government headed by General Duong Van
"Big" Minh. He may well believe that he can promote
his own political fortunes by raising the spectre of
US abandonment of President Thieu.
Communist military activity on 16-17 October
remained light and was characterized by scattered
shellings and small unit contacts in widespread
18 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR - Arms Control: Moscow apparently has de-
cided against working for early agreement on a sea-
beds treaty at the current session of the Geneva Dis-
armament Committee (CCD).
The chief of the Soviet delegation in Geneva has
said that he received instructions from Moscow on 16
October that the US and USSR should merely study the
proposed changes of other CCD delegations, but make
no response until the end of the current session of
the UN General Assembly in December. The US and the
USSR, according to Moscow, could then present to the
General Assembly a revised treaty which would incor-
porate only the amendments favored by the two powers,
who are also CCD cochairmen. This plan would mark
an abrupt shift in tactics for Moscow. Moscow has
hitherto believed that discussion of the draft treaty
by the General Assembly without the CCD's endorse-
ment could only weaken the document as well as fu-
ture disarmament efforts of the CCD.
The Soviet delegation in Geneva appeared sur-
prised by Moscow's volte-face, according to a US
representative, and one of the Soviets ascribed it
to the "traditional ponderousness" of Soviet bureau-
cracy. More likely, Moscow is satisfied with the
draft treaty worked out with the US and has devised
a strategy to avoid efforts to change it. If so,
Moscow has also decided to risk the ire of various
delegations to the CCD who believe that the co-
chairmen should consider amendments in Geneva before
presenting a final draft to the UN.
An attempt to cut off debate in Geneva would be
sure to increase irritation with the CCD in New York,
where it has been roundly criticized as an ineffec-
tive forum dominated by the cochairmen.
18 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Peru: The government appears to be making a
breakthrough in attracting new large-scale foreign
investment.
A $100 million agreement with Bayovar S.A., a
subsidiary of Kaiser Aluminum Company, for phosphate
mining development has just been approved by the
Peruvian Government. In addition, officials of Amer-
ican Smelting and Refining Corporation and Phelps
Dodge Corporation, the two principal owners of the
Southern Peru Corporation (SPCC), have recently in-
dicated that SPCC will sign an agreement to develop
its concessions before the deadline of 31 December.
At a minimum, the agreement is likely to call for an
investment of $350 million over the next 5 years,
but it could involve as much as $500 million. Fi-
nancing such large sums however, could be difficult.
In an effort to speed mining development, the
government recently modified mining regulations to
require concession holders to enter into investment
agreements before the end of this year or lose their
concessions. Investments must begin before May 1970,
and mineral production is to start within 5 years.
The government is pressuring the companies to ini-
tiate their investments promptly in order to improve
business confidence in Peru and to stimulate eco-
nomic activity. Officials also believe that the
agreements will improve Peru's position in the cur-
rent foreign debt renegotiations.
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