CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014800070001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 24, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
24 October 1969
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No. 0255/69
24 October 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Arab States: The situation remains tense. (Page 1)
West Germany - Poland: Brandt will have difficulty
meeting Poland's terms for better relations.
(Page 3)
Yugoslavia: Students are dissatisfied with promised
reforms. (Page 4)
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Afghanistan: The new parliament may be more con-
servative than its predecessor. (Page 6)
NATO: The Assembly opposes reductions without cor-
responding action by the Warsaw Pact. (Page 7)
Sweden: Foreign policy (Page 8)
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C Arab States: The situation remains tense, but
is stall generally under control.
President Hilu continues his search for the
least painful way out of the present crisis. He
met yesterday with a variety of local dignitaries
and representatives of other Arab states, but no
solutions have yet emerged.
The various political factions in Lebanon ap-
pear to have been caught off guard and their reac-
tion has been mixed. Some Muslim elements have re-
portedly demanded that the government cooperate with
the fedayeen and grant them full freedom of action,
but they have also stressed the need for calm and
national unity. Arab nationalists have issued a
call for a general strike today, probably timed to
coincide with noon prayers. The government has an-
nounced an indefinite curfew in Beirut and other
large cities, intended to reduce the possibility of
demonstrations.
An earlier order for security forces to disarm
the occupants of Palestinian refugee camps was later
rescinded by President Hilu, apparently after being
pressed by the Egyptian ambassador in Beirut. Never-
theless, there were some incidents between security
forces and refugees in camps in or near Beirut, with
some casualties on both sides.
There have been no reports of further armed
incursions from Syria across the Lebanese border.
in Syria itself? large anti-Lebanese, anti-Husayn,
and anti-US demonstrations took place yesterday.
In Jordan,, anti-Lebanese demonstrations con-
tinued in Amman.
(continued)
24 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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rin Israel, meanwhile, emotions are running high
over the recent. bombings of apartment houses in.
Haifa. Although Prime Minister Meir characterized
the perpetrators as Arab infiltrators, senior cab-
inet officials reportedly believe the bombings are
the work of Israeli Arabs. The some 286,000 Arabs
in Israel proper have recently demonstrated increas-
ing:Ly pro-fedayeen views.
The Soviets have not yet commented, but Moscow
is probably not unhappy over the turn of events.
On 20 October, Soviet Politburo member Shelepin had
taken the unprecedented step of publicly pledging
unspecified Soviet support for the fedayeen.
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West Germany - Poland: Chancellor Brandt will
have difficulty meeting Poland's terms for better
relations.
The current trade talks are moving very slowly
and may soon be recessed to give each side additional
time to clarify its position, according to West Ger-
man officials. Thus far, the Poles have done little
more than present a general catalog of their maximum
desires. For their part, the Germans have been at
pains to explain why such demands as elimination of
quotas, major tariff cuts, and special tax advan-
tages are unrealistic in view of Bonn's existing
international and domestic commitments. They have
also boggled over Polish hopes for generous credits,
although Bonn may eventually be willing to accommo-
date the Poles somewhat on this issue.
Although Brandt has expressed a strong desire
to improve relations, the approach of his government
to the Oder-Neisse border question--the major prob-
lem in German-Polish relations--remains unclear.
the Poles
still want a forma agreement wi Bonn on the bor-
der as the price for putting relations on a normal
basis. There is strong sentiment in both coalition
parties favoring immediate recognition of the bor-
der, but Brandt is emphasizing his desire for con-
tinuity in foreign policy. He will probably elect
to move cautiously rather than risk stirring up a
storm of protest from the opposition Christian Demo-
crats, and offending conservatives among his Free
Democratic coalition partners.
Brandt may feel that he can go no further than
offering to conclude a renunciation of force agree-
ment with Poland that would contain an implicit West
German acceptance of the border.
24 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Yugoslavia: Belgrade University students, who
rioted in 1968 against the government's treatment
of the students' ;problems, now are dissatisfied with
the scope of the first of many promised reforms.
Student participation in the election of uni-
versity officials is the obvious issue. The author-
ities, however, are more concerned with the students'
underlying challenge to the Communist Party's control
over appointments to key ,positions.
Last July the Serbian assembly amended the law,
thereby allowing faculties and students a free hand
in university elections, but without specifically
explaining how the elections would be conducted.
The students want to participate directly in elec-
tions of all officials. The Belgrade University
Council, however, adopted a complicated and indirect
method of election. The students grudgingly accepted
this method for the election of the rector and pro-
rector but are holding out for direct elections for
faculty deans and assistant deans.
Belgrade University, with a student body of
over 13,000, will remain tense until the end of Oc-
tober when these elections are due to be over. At
that time the students might become more active in
their dissent if they feel the elections were rigged
against their candidates. The authorities have been
relatively lenient with the students since the June
1968 riots and are anxious to avoid another disturb-
ance.
24 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
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Afghanistan: The recently elected parliament
may be even more conservative and parochial than
its predecessor.
In this second election of King Zahir's "ex-
peri.ment in democracy," local, often ultraconserva-
tive candidates were vigorously pushed by provincial
leaders who succeeded in getting out a heavy rural
vote. Many educated and liberal candidates were
defeated, largely because the government did not
intervene in their behalf as it had in 1965 and be-
cause many educated city dwellers did not vote. In
most races, family connections, tribal ties, and
financial resources far outweighed ideology and
political affiliation.
Legislators with party ties are a very small
minority. The largest party representation consists
of a small c;roue of conservatives and royalists, but
even they are not expected to be subject to party
discipline. The new parliament's political line-up
gives only two seats to avowed pro-Communists,
leaving the far left weaker than before.
in any case, parliament will continue to be a
malleable body whose performance depends as much on
executive and royal guidance as upon its own initia-
tive. Strong executive leadership to push needed
reform programs seems unlikely because the undynamic
and indecisive Nur Ahmad Etemadi will probably again
head the government. It remains to be seen if the
King, who is still the pre-eminent power, will be
more.. willing- than in the past to exert his influence.
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NATO: The North Atlantic Assembly has come
out strongly against any reduction in the military
strength of the Alliance without a corresponding
reduction by the Warsaw Pact.
Reacting to the prospect of a 50 percent re-
duction in Canada's forces in Europe next year and
rumors of eventual US troop withdrawals, this ses-
sion of NATO's parliament took the position that
NATO's military posture should be maintained, not
reduced, and that significant improvements in the
quality of its forces should be undertaken.
The subject of possible US troop pullouts fig-
ured prominently in the Assembly discussions. This
concern was given added weight by the speeches of
several US delegates who noted mounting domestic
pressures for reduced military commitments and
called on the Allies to shoulder more of the NATO
defense burden.
The British proposal for some sort of European
defense group within NATO was received more warmly
by the parliamentarians than it has been in the
past by most Allied governments. The delegates re-
solved that interested European members of the
Alliance should work for "practical measures of de-
fense cooperation including the establishment of a
European arms procurement agency...and the eventual
establishment of an integrated European force."
24 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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Sweden: The new government is taking firm
charge. of the nation's foreign policy. According
to a foreign ministry official, Sweden plans to com-
plete action on the nuclear nonproliferation treaty
by Christmas, thus reversing its long-time refusal
to ratify before the US and USSR. Prime Minister
Palme has also called a meeting next Tuesday of the
national advisory council. on foreign affairs to re-
view the state of Swedish-US relations. Foreign
Minister Nilsson and the parliamentary foreign af-
fairs committee will report at this meeting; both
have just completed separate conciliatory consulta-
tions with their opposite numbers in the US.
24 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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