CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014800120001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 30, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5 0.,
30 October 1969
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No. 0260/69
30 October 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
USSR: The growth rate of industrial production
may well be the lowest since World War II. (Page 1)
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Spain: Franco's cabinet shake-up will give eco-
nomic specialists a preponderant role. (Page 3)
Sudan: Council President Numayri has further con-
solidated his control. (Page 4)
Bolivia: The government is being forced to shut
down part of its petroleum operations. (Page 5)
Dominican Republic: Balaguer's strong stand will
probably strength radical opposition. (Page 6)
East Germany - West German : Reaction to Brandt
speech (Page 7)
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USSR: A continuation of low rates of indus-
trial growth during the third quarter of 1969 sug-
gests that the growth rate of industrial produc-
tion for the full year may well be the lowest since
World War II.
Civilian industrial production during the
first nine months of 1969 is estimated to have
grown by only 4.7 percent. In the third quarter
of the year, moreover, Soviet industrial produc-
tion failed to maintain the slight rally begun in
the second quarter.
A small increase in the rate of growth of in-
dustrial materials in the third quarter compared
to that of the first half of the year was due to
higher growth in the output of fuels, electric
power, and ferrous metals. Other important indus-
trial materials such as forest products as well as
civilian machinery and consumer nondurables, how-
ever, registered moderate slowdowns.
An improvement in the diet of city dwellers
is unlikely in the near future. The output of the
Soviet food industry remains at the same level as
in the corresponding period of 1968, while the out-
put of livestock products remains somewhat below
that of last year.
The moderate relapse in the third quarter may
be due in part to the tactics used in gathering
the.harvest. A greater than normal diversion of
machinery and manpower to the agricultural sector
may have disrupted industrial production. I
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Spain: Franco's shake-up of the cabinet will
give economic specialists a preponderant role in
domestic and foreign affairs.
The assignment of portfolios has shifted em-
phasis toward technocrats favoring economic modern-
ization and ties with Europe, but the military and
the government's National Movement, or Falange,
are still represented. Entry by Spain into the
European Common Market or NATO, however, will prob-
ably have to wait until Franco is no longer in
office.
The more sophisticated personality of the new
Foreign Minister, Gregorio Lopez Bravo, should make
day to day relations with the US smoother than
under his predecessor Castiella. Nevertheless,
his appointment is not likely to result in major
substantive changes in the future of the US bases
in Spain.
30 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Sudan: Revolutionary Command Council Presi-
dent Numayri has further consolidated his control
in Khartoum.
General Numayri's assumption of the prime
minister's portfolio effectively establishes the
military's predominant role in the government.
The former civilian prime minister, Awadallah,
presumably was removed because of his recent state-
ment that the Communists were essential for the
success of the revolution, a reference bringing
into question the regime's characterization of its
rule as "nationalist." Other cabinet changes sug-
gest a lessening of Communist influence in the
government.
One of Numayri's first official acts in his
enlarged role will be to lead a Sudanese delegation
to the anniversary celebrations in Moscow next
month. While there, Numayri can be expected to
discuss the status of the expanding Soviet economic
and military aid programs to Sudan.
30 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Bolivia: The government is being forced to
shut down part of its petroleum operations.
Since its holdings were expropriated two
weeks ago, the Gulf Oil Company has refused to buy
and transport the crude oil stored at Arica, Chile.
This has caused the shutdown of the pipeline to
Arica and the cessation of operations in at least
two of Gulf's former oil fields.
The government reportedly has offered Gulf a
deal whereby the company would purchase the crude
oil from the government. Twenty-five percent of
the price paid would be returned eventually to
Gulf as compensation for its expropriated property.
Gulf officials, however, have made no final deci-
sion on the offer.
The government, meanwhile, is searching for
other markets for its oil, particularly in Brazil
and other countries in Latin America. In its
quest for new markets, the government is faced
with the problems of transportation and of finding
refining facilities equipped to handle Bolivian
oil. Most Latin American refineries would have to
make substantial adjustments before being able to
process the high gravity Bolivian crude oil.
b
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Dominican Republic: President Balaguer's
strong stand against his political foes will prob-
ably strengthen radical. opposition to the govern-
ment.
In a nationwide speech on Tuesday, Balaguer
banned further outdoor rallies by the Dominican
Revolutionary Party (PRD), the country's major op-
position party. The President claimed that the
PRD's "dictatorship with popular support" thesis
almost amounted to the party declaring itself ille-
gal and unconstitutional. Balaguer also announced
that the radio program of the far rightist Quisque-
yan Party would be kept off the air until the party
ceased its attemxots to promote "military dissatis-
faction."
Balaquer may have taken this stand because he
has overestimated the opposition's potential for
violent action. He has also been under some pres-
sure from elements of the military to be tougher
on terrorist--o.rone radicals.
Whatever his motivation, the moves amount to
at least limited repression and will probably
strengthen the claim of PRD radicals that revolu-
tion is the proper course of action. Moreover,
these actions will deepen the split in the already
strife--torn party. Balaguer's tactics will also
support the opposition's contention that his pri-
mary aim is simply to limit dissent and pave the
way for his own re-election next year.
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East Germany - West Germany: Pankow's initial
reaction to Chancellor Brandt 's policy statement
suggests that the East Germans plan to study it
carefully before committing themselves to a sub-
stantive position. Short news reports of the state-
ment were issued by the official party daily and
by. the East German news agency, ADN. They were
free of polemics, merely summarizing some of the
main points. They failed, however, to mention
Brandt's offers to negotiate with the East Germans
and the Soviets, although the party paper mentioned
the overture to the Poles. The reports noted with-
out comment Brandt's remark about not extending
to East Germany "recognition under international
law," while devoting half of the space to the
chancellor's remarks on domestic policy. For the
basically uninformed East German public, this story
will give the impression that nothing has changed
in Bonn.
30 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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