CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014900070001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 8, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5 0
8 November 1969
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No. 0268/69
8 November 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Philippines: Marcos has a good chance to win a
second term. (Page 1)
Italy: Christian Democratic leaders are meeting
to determine how long Rumor's cabinet will last.
(Page 2)
Brazil: The truce between the Catholic Church and
the government could be broken. (Page 3)
NATO: The Council has taken a skeptical view of
the Warsaw Pact security conference proposal.
(Page 4)
Congo (Kinshasa): A government settlement provides
benefits to a nationalized copper company. (Page 5)
Ir Nigeria: Federal offensive (Page 7)
Netherlands Antilles: Coalition government (Page 7)
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Philippines: President Marcos has a good
chance of becoming the first Philippine president
to win a second term.
As the incumbent, Marcos has exercised his
control of government organizations to the fullest
to further his chances in the election that is to
take place on 11 November. Liberal Party candidate
Senator Osmena has been beset by a lack of money
and party disagreements. He has thus been unable
to maintain the momentum he built up in September
through a series of speeches that cut into Marcos'
early commanding lead.
The outcome of the separately contested vice
presidential race appears to be a tossup. Osmena's
running mate, Senator Magsaysay, hopes to advance
the political career he has built on being the
younger brother of the revered late President Ramon
Magsaysay. Nacionalista Party Vice President Lopez
has projected considerable appeal as an honest and
self-.effacing man.
Both presidential candidates have pledged
early renegotiation of US military base rights.
Filipinos privately acknowledge the security and
economic benefits of the bases, but they want
greater Philippine jurisdiction over incidents in-
volving the US military. The election campaign has
delayed consideration of a Philippine negotiating
position, and Manila will probably not be ready to
begin discussions for several months.
8 Nov 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Italy: The decisions the Christian Democratic
Party leaders reach at their current national coun-
cil meeting will determine how long Premier Rumor's
one-party minority cabinet will last and in what
circumstances it will be replaced.
The party has been troubled since late October
by a split in its largest faction. The split came
over the attitude the party should adopt toward re-
constituting a four-party coalition government with
the two Socialist parties and the Republicans.
Party Secretary Piccoli has resigned to force a
decision. He wants to call early parliamentary
elections if a four-party center left government,
cannot be worked out. The choice of Piccoli's suc-
cessor at the meeting will be an indication of the
likely course the party will take.
The leading candidate is Arnaldo Forlani, a
man whom various factions could support. His elec-
tion would probably not have any immediate effect
on the Rumor government. Forlani probably would
want to consolidate his position as party secretary
before giving the go-ahead to open negotiations for
a center left government. He also would prefer to
wait until after the local elections scheduled for
next spring. Forlani believes that the parties
would be more ready to negotiate seriously once
they can gauge the effect the Socialist party
split of last July has had on their strength.
It is expected that the center left parties
will be satisfied to see a continuation of the
present government and will continue to give it
their support.
8 Nov 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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Brazil: The fragile truce between the Catholic
Church and the government could be broken by the
involvement of Dominican priests in terrorist ac-
tivities.
Evidence that several priests of the Dominican
order gave substantial support to the terrorists
led by the late Carlos Marighella has caused some
security officials to call for a thorough investiga-
tion of the order and perhaps its expulsion from
Brazil. The clergymen had provided the group with
safe havens, arranged official documents such as
passports, and handled international press contacts.
Since the 1964 revolution, a significant num-
ber of Dominicans have assisted several clandestine
antigovernment organizations, including the National
Student Union and the radical Popular Action move-
ment. Security forces believe that the many for-
eigners in the order give it a pronounced leftist
orientation. The priests justified their action
by insisting that the military and the government
have "declared war" on any effective opposition,
and that such an enemy could be combatted only with
violence.
The Dominicans, although not one of the largest:
orders in Brazil, have considerable influence on
the Brazilian hierarchy. Extensive sanctions
against the order could cause church leaders to
abandon their present tactic of avoiding public
criticism nf thp anyprnmp ~I
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NATO: The North Atlantic Council has taken a
skeptical view of the Warsaw Pact proposal for an
early European security conference, but may issue
its own call next month for negotiations with the
East.
Meeting in special session in Brussels earlier
this week, the deputy foreign ministers of the NATO
countries examined the recent Prague appeal for
such a conference in the first half of 1970. They
also reviewed the progress of the Alliance in de-
veloping its own list of issues for eventual nego-
tiation with the East.
There was general agreement that the Warsaw
Pact proposal was designed to blur the memory of
the Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia, to gain
recognition for East Germany at the conference
table, and to solidify the status quo in Europe.
Most saw the Prague declaration as a propaganda ex-
ercise that failed to include either substantive
issues for negotiation or the participation of the
North American allies.
Nearly all the ministers agreed, however, that
the appeal could not be ignored. They thought NATO
should seize the initiative by offering to discuss
more concrete issues such as balanced reductions of
opposing conventional forces. ,They also suggested
that suitable subjects for negotiation would be the
guiding principles for peaceful relations between
the European states and measures to promote economic,
scientific, and cultural exchanges.
The selection of these topics may be further
complicated, however, if, as now seems likely, the
Warsaw Pact powers themselves give greater details
about the recent Prague meeting to other govern-
ments. They reportedly will hand over documents
from the meeting to interested countries spelling
out the Pact's ideas for the two-part agenda pro-
posed in the comminique.
8 Nov 69 Central Intelligep;ce Bulletin
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Congo (Kinshasa): The government's settlement
of the claim of Union Miniere, the Belgian copper
company that was nationalized over two and a half
years ago, provides substantial benefits to the
company.
Under the terms, which were agreed to last
September but only recently disclosed, Union Miniere
stands to gain substantially more than the $300-
million book value of its seized assets. The com-?
pensation to Union Miniere will come out of the
commission paid to its affiliate, Societe General
des Minerais, under its 25-year contract for manage-
ment of the nationalized copper company.
President Mobutu believes the agreement im-
proves the investment climate in the Congo and
clears the way for several loans from the Interna-
tional Bank for Reconstruction and Development for
much-needed improvements to the transportation sys-
tem. With copper accounting for almost half of the
government's revenues and three fourths of the coun-
try's foreign exchange, continued copper production
is crucial to the government's financial situation.
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Nigerian Federal Forces Preparing for Another Offensive
NIGERIA
I BIAFRA
Benin City
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3rd Federal; '1Aba ~tko`t Ekpene
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Calabar
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Port Harcourt ,.,.\
25 60 75
STATUTE MILES
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
FERNANDO PO
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NOTES
Nigeria: Federal forces are preparing to
launch another offensive in an effort to break the
stalemate that has prevailed for the past seven
months. The federal First Division is to start a
drive within the next two weeks 25X1
I The is raps have re-
Initiated small-scale action on the southern
front. They have been expecting a federal push
for some time and will probably be able to prevent
any significant early gains by the federal forces.
(Map)
Netherlands Antilles: Former minister-presi-
dent Kroon s decision not to insist on heading a
new administration may remove a big obstacle to
the formation of a coalition government. Kroon's
Democratic Party was toppled from power last May
by labor opposition and violent riots. The 5 Sep-
tember elections called by the interim government
proved inconclusive inasmuch as no party received
a majority. In that election, the Democrats and
their traditional ally, the Aruba Patriotic Party,
won 11 of 22 legislative seats. None of the sev-
eral opposition parties, however, has been willing
to join in a coalition headed by Kroon. The Workers
Front, the recently formed political arm of labor,
surprisingly won three seats in the election and
has thus far refused to join a coalition.
8 Nov 6 9 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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