CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015000060001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 22, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
22 November 1969
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No. 0280/69
22 November 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
West Germany - Poland: Bonn expects to present a
note to Poland proposing talks. (Page 1)
Italy: Police unrest reflects the strain of mini-
mizing violence during extensive labor disputes.
(Page 2)
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Dominican Republic: Balaguer is facing more po-
litical problems. (Page 4)
UN - Arms Control: Seabeds treaty (Page 5)
India: State politics (Page 5)
India-USSR: Sale blocked (Page 6)
Burma: Liberalization rejected (Page 6)
Venezuela: Terrorist kidnaping (Page 7)
European Communities - Israel: Trade arrangement
Page 7)
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West Germany - Poland: Bonn expects to pre-
sent a note to the Polish Government next week pro-
posing talks on the Oder-Neisse line and other
questions.
The note will respond to Polish party chief
Gomulka's speech last May that proposed a Polish.-
West German treaty on the border issue, according
to Bonn's trade representative in Warsaw. West
German Foreign Minister Scheel, however, has stated
that the border question is "not the only or first
issue" between the two countries. He mentioned the
preparatory work required for a European security
conference as another prospective topic.
Bonn has deliberately timed its Polish initia-
tive to follow a similar approach to Moscow, to
avoid any appearance of trying to circumvent the
Soviets. The West Germans also demonstrated their
concern for Soviet sensitivities when Scheel in-
formed Soviet Ambassador Tsarapkin of this impending
Polish initiative during their meeting last Monday
on European security conference matters. Bonn rec-
ognizes that if its Eastern policy is to succeed,
it must allay Moscow's suspicions. In the past,
the Soviets have impeded West German efforts to
reach agreements in Eastern Europe.
Bonn thinks the bilateral approach to Eastern
European states is likely to win more concessions,
and doubtless hopes to secure a series of prelim-
inary agreements before embarking on a European
security conference.
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Italy: Evidence of some police unrest in
Milan reflects the strain of trying to minimize
violence during the autumn's extensive labor-
management disputs.
After Milan labor extremists inadvertently
killed one policeman and wounded a number of others
during Wednesday's general strike, senior officials
had difficulty dissuading some elements of the po-
lice from revenge. Two of the more irate uni_
have been replaced by police from outside Milan.
Police forces in this key industrial center
had earlier organized a complaint. because of the
long hours and emotional strain of the past two and
one half months during which repeated strikes were
accompanied by public street marches. The public
order services in Italy normally show considerable
resilience. If for any reason the police should
refuse to continue the restrained role they have
played thus far, however -the government would im-
mediately be in difficulty.
Same uneasiness has already been noted in the
government, and there is even talk of replacing the
present government with a stronger one. It is not
clear, however, how seriously this is being consid-
ered. At any rate, the maintenance of law and order
is receiving firm sup t. from both conservative
and leftist politicians_)
The strike situation may be eased by the prog-
ress Fiat has been made toward new labor contracts
in the key economic sectors, including the auto and
metal working industries. Housing, the focus of
the strike on 19 November, has shown fairly steady
progress in recent years and is likely to receive
a further boost from increased expenditures in the
field recommended by?the government on the eve of
the general strike
entry Intelligence Bulletin
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Dominican Republic: 4The_assassination of a
popular army major has aroused military dissatis-
faction and pressed President Balaguer with more
political problems
The murder, presumably by leftists, comes at
a time wfien the presidential campaign has already
engendered bitterness between the government and
the left. Although most. military leaders support
the President, some have chafed under presidential
directives that have restrained retaliation against
the let.
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L
C eaders of the leftist opposition Dominican
Revolutionary Party are convinced they are being
hounded into an illegal existence, and will probabl
view the latest assassination as another "frameup."
The. maneuvering for next year's election, in
which it is widely presumed Balaguer will run, un-
covered the first few chinks in Balaguer's almost
solid military support, and he may have to appease
the military. Some military officers may construe
Balaguer's recent strong attacks against the left
as license to carry out reprisals. Rightist plotters
would regard the violence resulting from a move
against the left as their opportunity to renew
coup plotting. They have claimed ,.tat only the
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NOTES
UN - Arms Control: Prospects for UN endorse-
ment of the US-USSR draft seabeds treaty have im-
proved somewhat by reason of Ottawa's adoption--
after extensive discussions with the US--of a re-
vised article on verification arrangements. Treaty
critics, including Canada, had focused their ire
on the lack of an adequate inspection provision.
The Canadian decision could sway a number of mem-
bers to support the treaty, should the revised ar-
ticle appear in the final text.
There remain several intran-
sigent countries, led by Brazil, that are not lamely
to respond favorably even to a treaty so revised.
bring government in several states to a virtual
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India: Congress Party unity in India's most
populous state, Uttar Pradesh, came apart yesterday.
Eight cabinet ministers who support Prime Minister
Gandhi left the government of Chief Minister Gupta,
who had voted against her last week. Factional
infighting has been endemic in the state, but the
resignations suggest that Mrs. Gandhi's supporters
now feel strong enough to topple the government
there and try to form their own coalition. Similar
tactics are likely to be employed in other troubled
state party organizations. This will lead to fur-
ther unstable multiparty coalitions, and could
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standstill.
(continued)
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India-USSR: Failure to agree on terms for
the sale of Indian railroad cars has temporarily
blocked Indian procurement of Soviet TU-154 jet
transports. The Indians have long been considering
US aircraft, but a deal with the USSR appeared more
likely after the Soviets made the freight car sale
conditional on Indian purchase of Soviet planes.
The US Embassy in New Delhi believes that the USSR
is unlikely to drop the matter. The Soviets have
pushed hard to sell the aircraft, and may well come
Burma. The Ne Win regime's strengthening of
its commitment to authoritarian socialism will
heighten popular disaffection but probably will not
trigger any significant resistance. The theme of
speeches at a recent commanding officers conference
and government party seminar, customary forums for
announcing policy changes, was entrenchment and ex-
tension of the present system and rejection of
liberalization.
General Ne Win threw out the proposal for a
return to constitutional democracy made by a civil-
ian advisory board he called into being a year ago,
thus dashing hopes for an easing of the military's
monopoly of government positions. Disappointed
civilians from earlier civilian administrations,
who had professed to see some sincerity in No Win's
earlier ambiguous remarks about loosening the mili-
tary's grip, may now be inclined toward civil dis-
obedience. The army is fully capable, however, of
handling any disturbances they could mount.
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Venezuela: The kidnaping of two daughters of
a prominent radio and TV commentator may have po-
litical repercussions. Members of the Armed Forces
of National Liberation claim responsibility for the
kidnaping and are demanding a $100,000 ransom. The
girls probably were singled out because their father
has strongly denounced recent leftist student dis-
orders at Central University in Caracas. The pub-
lic and the military have been critical of the gov-
ernment's mild attitude toward terrorist groups,
and outrage over this incident will increase pres-
sure on the Caldera government to take more force-
can Communities - Israel:
Ithe
European Communities EC) believe thaw agreement
in principle could be reached on the remaining prob-
lems when negotiations on an EC-Israel preferential
trade arrangement resume on 10 December. The text
of the arrangement could be approved early next
year, and a date set for signature. France had
been wary of negotiations with Israel until there
was a possibility of talks with Arab states. Ex-
ploratory talks will begin with Egypt in late No-
vember and EC sources do not expect Paris to block
progress on the Israeli agreement. Meanwhile, in-
ternational trade forums continue to voice concern
over the increasing number of preferential trade
agreements being concluded by-the Communities.
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22 Nov 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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